Andrew

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  • in reply to: Mr. Popularity #26243
    Andrew
    Participant

    Popularity polls mean very little this far from the next election (2018, anyway). The public has an extremely short memory. Republicans in Congress have been horribly unpopular for recent stunts like shutting down the government in the fall of 2013 over Obamacare. Remember how incredibly unpopular that was? A year later, they were punished by voters by being given the control of the Senate and a bigger majority in the House.

    91% of Americans approved of stricter gun control measures after Sandy Hook – and yet, look what happened? Nothing – probably in large part because Sandy Hook happened right after the 2012 election.

    I wish Trump’s unpopularity meant anything now – but unfortunately, I think it means about zero at this point. If his low popularity numbers persist into October 2018? We’ll see.

    Andrew
    Participant

    Let’s hope so, Paul!

    But there are an awful lot of voters out there who HATE the ACA Mandate requiring them to buy insurance, and those people are going to be pretty angry if the Mandate isn’t repealed.

    And the Mandate is required to make the whole ACA work. Without it, many people simply won’t buy insurance, not enough healthy people will participate in the health care exchanges, prices will go up, and the exchanges will go into death spirals.

    It seems more likely to me that the Republicans will keep weakening the ACA until costs go out of control, and then even Democrats will be begging Republicans to kill it. Then Republicans can say, “See? We told you it wouldn’t work!” (even though they slyly made sure it wouldn’t work.) and come out smelling like a rose.

    People like Marco Rubio have already kneecapped the ACA in small ways that have caused insurers to flee the market and send prices higher:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/10/us/politics/marco-rubio-obamacare-affordable-care-act.html

    But how much major media coverage did this get, besides a few wonky stories like this one? How likely is it that uninformed members of the general public blame Republicans for these subtle moves?

    in reply to: compromising position #26142
    Andrew
    Participant

    I confess: this lurid story has a ring of truth to it. This creep has done some very twisted personally vindictive things to people over the years. It fits with his personality.

    But it still may not be true – and even if it is, there may be absolutely no way to prove it.

    in reply to: Epic Portland Snow! #26140
    Andrew
    Participant

    It is weird. Got about four inches in inner NE Portland. I didn’t think we were supposed to get anything til tomorrow and not much.

    It’s a very wet, heavy snow. Also very bright outside.

    in reply to: compromising position #26135
    Andrew
    Participant

    Then again, I lost track of how many times during the campaign Trump would say something or do something, and his detractors would pipe up and say, “THIS IS DIFFERENT! He’s done!” The weekend the Access Hollywood tape came out, people weren’t debating whether Trump would lose or not (that was just assumed) – they were wondering whether he’d even stay in the race. And then look what happened…

    These are strange times, hard to predict. This story could easily be gone in a few days, unless some concrete proof (like a video in a hotel room) emerges.

    in reply to: compromising position #26126
    Andrew
    Participant

    You’re on fire tonight, Langston!

    Trust me – all of this sounds so incredibly crazy and far fetched that I could never have believed it…a year ago. But now?

    I suspect Republicans in Congress are not going to need too much prompting to jettison the new president, if any of this stuff has any bit of truth. You have to wonder if this stuff isn’t going to start coming out bit by bit. I still won’t predict anything – but if Republicans wanted to jettison Golden Boy, they’d probably want to do it sooner rather than later.

    Andrew
    Participant

    Largely “yes” to the second question.

    I’d say the ultimate goal for Republican leaders (and the people funding them) is tax cuts mostly for the rich. Everything else is gravy if they achieve it.

    Andrew
    Participant

    Of course McConnell is a hypocrite.

    But pointing it out is a losing issue for Democrats. Most of the country isn’t even paying to the Supreme Court and doesn’t care (they should!); that’s why Republicans were able to ignore the nomination of Merrick Garland without much more than a yawn from the media and the general population.

    in reply to: Quality doc on Chicago on CNN #25956
    Andrew
    Participant

    Chicago is slipping: they have surrendered their #1 title for bedbugs to wimpy old BALTIMORE! In fact, Chicago has plummeted to #3 in bedbugs:

    Chicago No Longer Number One In Bed Bugs

    Sorry, I need a doc’s prescription to watch CNN these days!

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25940
    Andrew
    Participant

    Skeptical, I agree that Trump may not be as bad to his now opponents as they fear – but because expectations for him now are so extreme and bad, it would be pretty easy for him to be not-as-bad.

    And Trump has already feuded with Paul Ryan and other Republican leaders, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that continue. For Republicans not to support him in 2020 would be pretty extreme – he’d have to be really, really unpopular in the US in general. The incumbent is almost always re-nominated. The Republican establishment already went up against this guy once and failed – their voters went with him, not them.

    Can’t imagine Trump would re-nominate Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, though.

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25937
    Andrew
    Participant

    Resigning makes you look like a failure. Nixon did it only because the alternative – being impeached and probably convicted and removed – was a lot worse for his “legacy.” I again can’t really imagine why Trump would resign unless, like Nixon, it was a necessity.

    The only other scenario I can imagine Trump resigning would be if there was some perceived moment of triumph – like either of the two Bush’s high moments right after the Iraq wars or something – and he could claim to want to go out on top. But it still seems unlikely to me. If things were bad, why resign? They could get better before you go.

    Who knows if he would want to run again? He was already quoted once in the last few weeks talking about “the next eight years” – something first term presidents usually don’t presume to do. (Most at least pretend they “haven’t decided whether to run again” until they need to announce.)

    Again – why even make such predictions at all? What’s the point? Have you all been so correct in your previous predictions? I sure haven’t, and I doubt any of you have a much better average than I do.

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25932
    Andrew
    Participant

    I don’t know if Trump would resign if not faced with a Nixon-like impeachment. Wouldn’t he just delegate more tasks if he got bored? As president, he can be as disengaged and uninvolved as he wants to be. There’s no more prestigious job in the world than President of the United States. Somehow, resigning makes you look like a quitter.

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25931
    Andrew
    Participant

    Yes, the next economic collapse is coming – but when? Before 2020 or after? Or too soon before?

    Reagan took office in 1981 with a shaky economy – high interest rates, high unemployment…but it got a lot worse with a bad recession that same year. It happened early enough in his term that it could be blamed on Carter But by 1984, the economy seemed to have recovered, and of course Reagan sailed to re-election.

    If the economy collapses in mid-2017, Trump will just blame Obama, and voters may agree with him. But if it collapses in 2019 or 2020…history shows the incumbent president is probably toast in the next election.

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25928
    Andrew
    Participant

    One of my 2017 New Years resolutions is to stop making predictions about politics! Because like most of you, I have a pretty poor track record at being right. So why even bother?

    I have no idea if Republicans will suffer big losses in 2018 or not. (The president’s party doesn’t always lose seats in Congress- see: 1998 and also 2002 mid-terms.) I have no idea if Trump will flounder or act as a Democrat or as a Republican or neither. Maybe because expectations for him are so incredibly low now, he has nowhere to go but up. And he’s the first president since 1989 not to inherit a recession – so he probably has more freedom to flex his political muscles than other new presidents, with other big worries, have been able to.

    So why even speculate? Let’s just see what happens – because there’s not much we can do about it at this point anyway, right? I sure hope he is out of power soon and that Republicans collapse in the next four years, etc., etc., but just because I desire it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

    in reply to: The drumpf disaster gets under way soon #25922
    Andrew
    Participant

    When Trump won the election, I assumed we were in for an awful four years. Some terrible laws will be passed and signed, and some bad people will be appointed to government, etc. The courts are jacked probably for 20-30 years.

    Elections have consequences, and we lost.

    But I for one refuse to wallow in the misery of Trumpland, because there’s almost zero I can do to change it for at least two if not four or eight years. So why should I worry about it?

    I’ve already unfollowed a dozen or more Facebook friends who can’t seem to get enough of, “Ohmygod, can you believe he said THIS?” posts and articles. Sorry, I have zero interest in that stuff. If you want to wallow, feel free.

    All I care about is what I can do to change it in 2-4-8 years. Anything else is just a waste of time.

Viewing 15 posts - 991 through 1,005 (of 1,030 total)