Andrew

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 1,205 total)
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  • in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49237
    Andrew
    Participant

    I don’t buy into this idea that Trump is smarter than anyone. He has a gut instinct for how certain voters will respond to racist and nationalist appeals. But he is terrible at politics as he has demonstrated over and over again. I have no doubt that there is no “strategy” with this phone call. It is exactly what it looks like: just yet another attempt to bully someone into overturning the election for him. He still hasn’t given up.

    Honestly, given how incredibly close the 2020 election was, Trump should have won. He was so “smart” that he made a lot of dumb mistakes that in retrospect might have cost him the election. E.g. his terrible 1st debate performance. Or not toning things down the final month of the election (like he did in 2016) and at least pretending to care about Covid. If he hadn’t held that stupid, dangerous White House event for Amy Comey Barrett, he probably wouldn’t have gotten Covid, and that alone may have cost him the election.

    in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49230
    Andrew
    Participant

    Right, Ed, until voters start punishing the Republicans for their actions instead of re-electing them, Republicans like McConnell have no incentive to change.

    in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49223
    Andrew
    Participant

    Hard to know. Depends what happens in court, honestly. Will Trump be indicted in New York? Will he pardon himself then be charged with a federal crime and have that pardon challenged in court and lose?

    It could be once he is out of office Trump will lose his luster quickly. But given how incredibly close the November election was, Democrats really shouldn’t sit on their laurels here. Biden may not run again, and Trump might – and who knows what state the country will be in in four years. It’s hard to think the country would be a lot better off with Ted Cruz sitting in the White House than it was with Trump – and it’s not hard to imagine him winning the electoral college in 2024.

    in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49221
    Andrew
    Participant

    That phone call is such a shock and a surprise…ha ha, no! Not a surprise at all. Nothing shocks me anymore about him. But I am surprised he still hasn’t accepted that he lost, even if he is angry and bitter about it.

    I can’t imagine he’ll attend the inauguration. I’m wondering what moving out of the White House will be like. Perhaps he and Melania don’t really have much of their stuff there so moving out won’t be hard or take long. The fumigation after the Trumps leave will probably slow down things the most so the place is safe to inhabit again…

    in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49143
    Andrew
    Participant

    Senate Republicans really didn’t want a lot of the things in the compromise Covid bill – they felt political pressure to go along. (McConnell wants to win those two GA senate seats in January.) Why else would they have waited until the last minute to pass this bill that the Democratic House passed over the summer??

    So in a sense, Trump could save them some grief: he can be the bad guy and kill the Covid bill and Senate Republicans can say, “Hey, we tried…” If Trump simply ignores the bill and lets it lapse without vetoing it or signing it, it becomes a “pocket veto.” This would happen ten days after passage…past the end of this Congress, meaning the bill would be dead and have to be passed all over again by the next Congress.

    in reply to: Trump is dangerous in last 30 days #49136
    Andrew
    Participant

    Every Republican in the Senate has his back: all but Romney voted not to convict him. They all knew he was capable of doing all of this kind of BS. As far as I’m concerned, every corrupt Trump pardon has not just his signature but all of those Republican Senators’ signatures on it.

    They could in theory STILL remove him; one call from McConnell to Pelosi saying, “Why not impeach him now?” and he’d be gone in a couple of days and negate any more pardons etc. But that’s obviously not going to happen…

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49122
    Andrew
    Participant

    Yeah, people like your friend (asymptomatic) are the big reason Covid has spread so thoroughly. People are used to avoiding sick people with symptoms. Some just can’t wrap their minds around the idea that people with no symptoms might be infected and contagious.

    I wonder if your friend infected anyone on one of his flights? (Or whether he caught it on one?)

    Actually, all the experts support the idea of “herd immunity.” But most experts want to use the vaccines to get us there (so Covid will stop spreading in the community, because enough people are immune i.e. the “herd” is immune) vs. just infecting everyone and seeing another 300K people die. I’ve read that we need to have around 75% of people with immunity to reach that herd immunity target. If we have 140M already infected out of 320M, that’s only 44%

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49120
    Andrew
    Participant

    I’ve not heard of any long-term effects from the Covid vaccines – just short-term reactions that people get over. A few people have had allergic reactions – maybe to the polyethylene glycol used in the vaccines.

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49118
    Andrew
    Participant

    Well, we aren’t ever going to know the real death rate without an accurate count of infections (and deaths), right? And the death rate is going to vary by things like age. I’ll bet in some countries (e.g. Scandinavian countries with more homogeneous populations and universal health care systems) it would be easier to get a more accurate death rate.

    All I was saying above is that the death rate is probably a lot lower in the US than you get considering only the documented Covid cases. And I worry almost as much about surviving but getting “Long-haul Covid” – so I’m not trying to minimize fear of the virus, either.

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49114
    Andrew
    Participant

    Ed, the John Hopkins only shows actual cases confirmed by tests. As I said, the CDC study from September suggested the number of infected people has been underreported by 8X. E.g. in September, when there were only 6.9M confirmed Covid cases, they estimate there were really about 52.9M cases total.

    If that multiplier is still true today, when we have about 17.8M cases documented, the real number may be around 140M Covid cases in the US (population 320M).

    Some say the death rate is undercounted too – maybe not by anything close to 8X though. But that means that the death rate is really much lower than you get by comparing documented cases with documented deaths. If there are really 400K Covid deaths including some not reported in official counts and 140M cases, then the real death rate is something like 0.2%.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article247457275.html

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49106
    Andrew
    Participant

    A more common sense explanation for varying death rate is that number of reported cases. The CDC did a study in September based on antibody tests suggesting that there were 8X more Covid cases in the US (at that time) than had been reported. Not everyone is tested even when they get symptoms (e.g. my brother almost certainly had Covid in February – he was very sick but never got tested), and there is a large percentage of asymptomatic cases that are mostly never tested.

    So the “death rate” depends on several things but one is clearly how many people are actually tested in each country. If there are 8X more people with Covid than reported in the numbers, then the death rate would be much lower than reported.

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49099
    Andrew
    Participant

    Broadway: “Some Doctors are now saying it’s better to get covid and then get the anti-bodies than taking the vaccine…more “healthy” ?”

    Yeah, 300,000+ dead Americans think that’s bullshit. Try suggesting this quack nonsense to their families or to some exhausted nurses working in the Covid wards and see what kind of polite response you get.

    in reply to: Trump has Covid-19 #49038
    Andrew
    Participant

    Such a rush to post bad news about someone you hate. How sad…that you beat me to it!!!

    in reply to: Officially official #49015
    Andrew
    Participant

    The real “official” date is December 14, when the Electoral College formally votes. Even Trump has pointed to this specific date as the date when he would “vacate the White House” if he loses the electoral vote. Even now there are still Republicans e.g. in PA still trying to overturn the election, even today. It is of course completely without any chance of succeeding though still theoretically possible…until December 14. Once the electors have voted, it is officially over. If Republicans controlled the next Congress, they would still have another shot there to dispute the electors or something, but obviously Nancy Pelosi isn’t going to tolerate that kind of nonsense in the House.

    in reply to: Trump is privately conceding #48984
    Andrew
    Participant

    Barr is desperately backpacking, trying to save his reputation, but I think it’s far too late. He’ll be remembered as the outgoing attorney general for two Republican incumbents in a row who were defeated for re-election. He should have quit after the first one.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 1,205 total)