June 11, 2016 at 7:54 pm #20622
A question was posed in another thread regarding how Trump could win–which states could he turn around–and my response included Florida and Ohio among others. I was of course summarily ridiculed by the board experts and told why it was impossible.
But what I like about making predictions is that anyone can make them and anyone has the chance to beat the experts, and that we eventually find out who was right and who was wrong.
There was a midterm election in 2014 and I presume predictions were made on this board then as well, and I wonder if anyone here was so politically astute and so insightful as to go against the conventional wisdom of that time and predict the Republicans’ sweeping victories in the Senate, House, and governorships. If the board experts made stellar midterm predictions, their punditry and their criticism of mine would be much more credible. I hope they will post links to those threads so we can see their credentials.
At any rate, I’m going to go against the grain and predict a Trump victory for the following reasons:
1) It’s the Repbulicans’ turn. It’s difficult for either party to hold onto the White House for more than eight consecutive years.
2) The economy has not had a strong recovery. Many people are hurting, and right or wrong they blame that on who’s in the White House and Hillary is going to have to run as Obama III, unless she takes what could be a greater risk of going against him.
3) There is a strong perception that Hillary Clinton is dishonest.
4) Hillary Clinton is not a compelling candidate. She is shrill and boring. She does not relate well to the common man and woman.
5) An anti-establishment sentiment is in the air. It effected the nomination of Trump and almost that of Sanders. And it doesn’t get any more “establishment” than Hillary Clinton.
6) There is the possibility of a relatively strong showing for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. Counter-intuitively, he could wind up siphoning off more Democrat votes than Republican votes as it gives a place for some of the disgruntled Sanders supporters to go.
I believe that Trump will begin to tone down his rhetoric. His supporters will put pressure on him to be more careful and he will listen to good advice from people like Newt Gingrich. I believe he will make a good choice for VP and will probably roll out impressive cabinet appointees well before the election.
The Donald will grow and begin to appear to be more presidential and Hillary less so.
For these reasons and more, I predict Donald Trump will be our next President.June 11, 2016 at 8:50 pm #20625paulwalkerParticipant
Even if the Republican nominee was a sane, intelligent, moderate, non-racist, non-sexist, likeable person…he or she would still not win.
The electoral math is right up there on the chalkboard. For Trump to even have a chance of winning would take winning 5-6 traditionally democratic States, and they would have to be States that have big electoral votes. Like California, New York, Washington, and to some lesser extent, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Popular vote projections mean nothing. That isn’t how we elect Presidents.
Short of something to change the climate of this political season, Trump has no path to Presidential victory. None.
Zero.June 12, 2016 at 8:19 am #20638
It was only 12 years ago that Bush won a second term as a Republican.
Bush did not permanently change the electoral map to preclude a Democratic president and neither has Obama for the Republicans.June 12, 2016 at 10:33 am #20644LurkingGrendelParticipant
No, demographics have.
White bigots are now a minority.
Sorry you find that troubling.June 12, 2016 at 11:24 am #20645LangstonParticipant
The main reason Trump will lose is that the GOP is divided and will remain so as long as Trump is the nominee.June 12, 2016 at 11:52 am #20649AmusParticipant
And shed themselves of the racial & religious bigots.June 12, 2016 at 12:59 pm #20653Andy BrownParticipant
Women and minorities will hand Trump the biggest Presidential defeat in modern history. Over 70% of women give him a negative rating. Couple that with the impact of Trumps racist agenda towards Hispanics, Mexicans, Islaam and anyone that’s not a white right wing fool is dooming his campaign towards a record setting loss in November. Clearly, with the entire GOP up in arms and not having an antidote for their immediate future as well as Trump’s demeanor of perilous self importance, his mouth began defeating his ambitions months and months ago.
Your pipe dream is nothing more than that. There is no state by state, race based, gender based or ethnicity based polling that supports a Trump victory in any contest sans Biggest Loser in Politics, perhaps.June 12, 2016 at 1:37 pm #20660
No, demographics have.
White bigots are now a minority.
Sorry you find that troubling.
But white anti-Christian bigotry is on the rise.
And I didn’t say I found anything to be “troubling.” I don’t understand the liberal obsession with skin color, and this race is not about that and the reasons for Trump support are deeper than that.June 12, 2016 at 1:39 pm #20661VitalogyParticipant
If you’re a racist, your candidate is Trump.June 12, 2016 at 1:49 pm #20662Andy BrownParticipant
“obsession with skin color, and this race is not about that and the reasons for Trump support are deeper than that.”
Horseshit. Hypocrisy at its finest. The right wing is obsessed with white power, an obsession only surpassed by the fringe right wing hate groups whom often act out what the larger more peaceful righties are actually thinking.
And . . .
The Presidential race is totally about race. Trump has staked out his white power position and all the weak ones like you are right there at his side. Build a wall to keep Mexicans and drugs out (we already know that drugs come through tunnels as do many people so how’s a wall going to have much of an effect?), throw out illegal aliens en masse (a real gem of an idea that’s not possible to do, and is certainly racist when you examine what really would happen) and don’t allow anyone Muslim from entering the country (that one defies not only common sense but years of bipartisan policy). Not racist? You are an idiot.
Reasons to support Trump are “deeper than that”? That’s laughable. There is nothing deep or meaningful coming out of the Donald’s campaign. It’s clearly lowest common denominator and boy does he have you and the other low intellects swallowing that giz by the mouthful.
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