Why drumpf and his party will lose in '20

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    Paul, we’re pretty much in total agreement. The point I’ve failed to make a couple times now is I’m baffled as to why things aren’t much worse with the economy. Smoke and mirrors going on in an election year.


    OMG. Just drive down the street and see how many storefronts are for lease. 2019 was the worst year for P/L in my company’s history, due in no small part to the effects of our chaos White House and rising costs that won’t stop.

    I had a plan to cut costs and break even for 2020 until COVID blew a hole in that plan the size of a truck.

    My company is B2B (Business to Business) only, and every vendor and every customer today openly says the same thing to me … we have enough cash to get to the first quarter of 2021 but not further, and it would be really nice to find out before year end if the SBA PPP money is a loan or a grant. Without the PPP being a grant for the small businesses that took it, and without any more support, we are expecting an economic catastrophe. This was so far put off by the extended unemployment that kept spending up, and the PPP support to business.

    If Congress don’t act in the next several weeks I expect my industry to collapse to about 25% of it’s previous size, and my company cannot survive that loss of revenue.

    Don’t pay attention to the fucking stock market, it’s essentially way overpriced and it’s not much better indicator than Las Vegas.


    Andy Brown

    lastday doesn’t realize that the expanded unemployment kept many households above water until it ended, making the effects of the recession less obvious and delayed.

    When the GDP drops over 30% and the stock markets don’t crash, the message is that the wealthiest people are doing fine. Without more Federal propping up of the day worker income, the consumer spending will tumble and the markets won’t be able to sustain their “stability” and will fall. Some big corporations that have relied on Fed contracts awarded by the corrupt practices of the drumpf administration will fall precipitously once drumpf’s attempt to steal the election fails.


    I said:

    I’m baffled as to why things aren’t much worse with the economy

    That’s shorthand for everything you all keep elaborating on. We’ll just have to disagree that we agree.

    I should have added “…in spite of it being propped up with things like stimulus checks”.


    Sadly, some of that PPP money went to businesses that WILL make it, easily, robbing that option to many small businesses that have no hope otherwise. Also, some of these bigger companies have used it to buy back stocks, etc. That has kept the markets inflated … and when that comes to an end, the markets will absolutely collapse (like what Andy said). Vitalogy is much better versed in this than I am.

    Shit looks okay because it has been propped up by the stimulus packages. Without it, we’re looking down the barrel of 1929 all over again.

    And to think that if we had leadership that led by example, listened to and trusted the doctors, scientists and experts at his disposal and stopped enabling the tinfoil hat wearers, mandating masks and a lockdown that most of the rest of the world has done, we would be in a position to recover economically much faster. Literally years faster.

    Master of Disaster

    Believe it or not, the Master of Disaster is most concerned Trump could actually win in several weeks. Not that the Master of Disaster wants him to win, but actually the opposite.

    Polls claim Biden is in the lead. Four years ago, polls claimed Clinton was in the lead going all the way up to Election Day. Polls only capture the opinions of those who agree to respond, not those who don’t answer their phone, use adblock while online, and/or simply ignore or refuse to be interviewed by in-person pollsters.

    Both Republicans and Democrats keep more of their money when taxes are lowered. Both Republicans and Democrats benefit when civil disorder keeps what’s going on in the chambers of government out of the news. And when people are suffering, they spend more. Even if they don’t think they have money to spend.

    Yes, the Master of Disaster is planning to vote for Biden—the Master of Disaster believes he’s the only remaining candidate that has any possibility at all of successfully running the country.


    The Paul Walker of Optimism agrees with The Master of Disaster. But only because I am generally optimistic. The Paul Walker of Reality senses this could easily go either way at this point. And this BS about Trump never conceding is scaring the shit out of me because it is unprecedented and could destroy our republic. Not so much for me but our kids and their kids. This is what is at stake.

    Andy Brown

    “Polls claim Biden is in the lead. Four years ago, polls claimed Clinton was in the lead going all the way up to Election Day.”

    It’s not the same election, not the same matchup, and there is an incumbent with baggage. Lots of baggage. I realize polling is more art than science, but putting the 2016 campaigns in the same boat as the 2020 campaigns, in any way shape or form, is lackluster.

    To start, during the summer and fall of 2016, Clinton never had the kind of national poll lead that Biden now has. She led by an average of four points four months before the election and the same four points just before Election Day. This year, after Biden effectively clinched the nomination, he moved into an average six-point lead over Trump, which has grown to nearly 10 points after the death of George Floyd and the weeks of protests that have followed. The lingering apprehension among Democrats fails to recognize just how much the political landscape has changed since 2016. We are looking at different polls, a different America, and different campaigns with different leaders.

    Another reason to trust polls more now than in 2016 is this change: Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change—an elixir against being deceived again. The pain of Trump’s victory and disastrous presidency has concentrated the minds of campaign staff and the polling profession in ways that give me confidence that Biden’s lead in the polls is real.

    But much more important than all of that is the sustained, unwavering, and extremely well-documented opposition of the American people to every element of Donald Trump’s sexist, nativist, and racist vision. Indeed, the public’s deep aversion to Trumpism explains why Biden has such a poll lead.

    Source: The Atlantic 8/2/2020 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/isnt-hillary-clintons-polling/613690/

    1. Trump appears to have a ceiling of 46%: More concerning for the Trump campaign than a slippage in the polls is the very real possibility that he hasn’t gotten higher against Biden than the 46% of the popular vote he got in 2016.

    2. The third-party vote share is likely to be lower: Roughly 6% of voters in 2016 voted third-party, the highest percentage since 1996. That helped Trump win the Electoral College. But the percentage of people voting third-party in 2020 this fall is likely to be lower for multiple reasons, including:

    Biden is working closely with primary rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and has a better relationship with Sanders than Clinton did;
    The third-party candidates this time are less prominent and getting less attention than in 2016; and
    Perhaps most importantly, no one is underestimating Trump’s chances as some did in 2016. Democrats see him far more as a clear, present and urgent threat who very well could win reelection.

    3. People don’t dislike Biden as much as they did Clinton:

    July 2016: Clinton 34% positive, 56% negative with 43% “very negative” (NBC/WSJ poll)
    July 2020: Biden 34% positive, 46% negative, with 33% “very negative” (NBC/WSJ poll)
    The fact that Biden’s “very negative” score is 10 points lower than Clinton’s is significant. It might not only contribute to fewer third-party votes, but also reduce vitriol toward Biden that may mean potential Trump voters will be less fired up to turn out to cast a vote (or mail one in).

    Biden’s voters are far more motivated to vote against Trump than for Biden.

    Source: NPR.org 9/8/2020 https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900338253/why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-not-2016

    The conditions under which the 2016 and 2020 elections are taking place couldn’t be more different. This election is taking place during a severe pandemic, a bad economic downturn, and is coming off weeks of historic protests and reckoning over police brutality. All of these factors are now shaping the views of the electorate in ways that largely do not benefit Trump.

    Trump is now an incumbent as opposed to a challenger. In 2016, Trump was running as an outsider against Hillary Clinton, a Democrat who served in the two-term Obama administration and therefore represented the status quo by default. Now, Trump is the incumbent representing the status quo, including the federal government’s unpopular response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and voters are judging him as such.

    Biden is more favorably viewed and liked than Hillary Clinton. As Trump is learning, Biden is far more difficult to successfully attack than Clinton, a controversial and polarizing figure who was dogged with a scandal over her usage of a private email server and had far lower favorability than Biden does. Trump’s attempts to hit Biden, from accusing him of being incompetent and possibly senile to claiming he’s leading a radical leftist revolution seeking to abolish the police and the suburbs, have largely fallen flat, and Biden’s lead has only expanded and strengthened.
    Biden’s average lead is far larger and more consistent than Clinton’s by nearly every metric. The New York Times’ Nate Cohn recently reported that even assuming that current national and state polls were as far off from the final result as they were in 2016, Biden would still win the electoral college and five of the top six states analysts say are likely to decide the election.

    Source: Business Insider 7/20/2020



    The Vitalogy of No Code says the stock market is not the economy. And the only reason the stock market is at the level it’s at is that it’s become accustomed to free cheese to eliminate all their risk. Privatize profits and socialize losses, sounds like a plan! And, they will probably get it, hence the levels the market indexes are at as of now. Should there be any talk of cheese being reduced, the market will drop big time.

    The economy is still being propped up. The propping up can only go on so long. Look around at Portland traffic. There is none. 75 mph to and from work on I205. Haven’t driven like that since 2008. When people aren’t on the road, they aren’t out building an economy. These things take time to manifest. My best prediction is that the shit will hit the fan spring 2021 once stimulus runs out and reality sets in on what the new normal is.

    Housing is a bright spot, right? Yes, because mortgage rates are rock bottom, because the Federal Reserve is the only buyer in the market! Feds buying mortgage bonds is stimulus. Once the Fed tapers back, and if other investors don’t taper in (who wants to buy debt secured by assets that are ready to lose value??) then I expect the housing market to take a hit. Housing is local so it will vary by market. But as they say, as goes the housing market goes the economy.

    Right now we as an economy are somewhere between denial and anger. Still a way’s to go and it’s not going to be good.


    All Trump has to do is keep the economy propped up for another six weeks or whatever it is. I’m expecting the 2nd round of stimulus checks to be announced in about four weeks to help with that.


    Trump recently announced $200 vouchers (or some sort) to cover prescription drug costs for seniors. No clear sense of what that means, or who would qualify, or what the total cost would be, or what budget would pay for it. Trump has always just made shit up, but now he’s making shit up so flagrantly and sloppily, even the people who haven’t taken off their MAGA hats since 2016 are starting to scratch their heads. And now with this NYT story about Trump’s taxes, everyone with brains will begin to turn away from this president if they haven’t already. Unfortunately, we have too many mindless authoritarian-loving “patriots” in this country and not enough people with brains, so it’s going to be closer in November than it should be.


    Seniors can already get Medicare Part D for prescription drugs. The people who need help with their prescriptions are the people under 65 who can’t afford their insulin or whatnot. But Trump knows his base is largely older people.


    I don’t know where y’all live but if you drive out of Eugene up Highway 58 toward Oakridge or west on 126 toward Florence, as soon as you’re out of the city you start seeing very large Trump-Pence signs erected on private property facing the highway. Like professionally-made mini-billboards. Don’t think you’ll find a similar Biden-Harris sign anywhere. Just an observation. Draw your own conclusions. Maybe the property owners put the signs up. Maybe the Oregon Republican Party pays them to put up the signs.

    Andy Brown

    Rural Oregon has always had a lot of Republicans, many of whom are ignorant and/or in denial. The urban/suburban population in the Willamette Valley keeps the state blue.


    Lastday – I live in Saint Helens, and the Trump love is thick up here. Every weekend in front of Safeway is a huge Trump rally, I make sure to tell them they’re #1 when I drive by.

    I have never been this angry about a political figure and his followers in my life; there is just no logical justification for him. Or them. I respect that it’s their choice and I respect their First Amendment rights, but I just don’t understand how anyone can support voting or supporting the end of our democracy. Because if Trump ends up back in the White House, that’s exactly what we will have.

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