Why drumpf and his party will lose in '20

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  • #42736
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    The trade wars he has created. Auto sales are falling, workers are being laid off in droves, and manufacturing is in reverse gear. General Motors has cut thousands of jobs across the Midwest. US Steel plans to lay off 200 workers in Michigan. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a broad indicator of industrial demand, fell in August for the first time in years. Temporary jobs, a normally reliable indicator of activity, have fallen by 30,000 since December.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/view-donald-trumps-trade-wars-may-turn-out-to-be-political-suicide/articleshow/71071650.cms

    Since that article was written less than a month ago, the economic news has gotten worse. The country’s decade-long economic expansion, extended by drumpf’s huge tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals and corporations is finally running out of steam. Growth in personal income — the money people get from wages, salaries, interest payments and other sources — was much weaker last month than economists had expected, the latest government data show. The July figures were also more tepid that previously thought.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-economy-slows-compounds-trumps-political-impeachment-woes/

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2019

    There is no defending the slowing economy. drumpf was handed a solidly growing economy thanks to the former administration’s 8 years of correcting the last Republican disaster. It’s pretty clear at this point that it is going to be near impossible for drumpf to win re-election with a recession looming on the horizon. Consumer confidence is ebbing. Job growth is ticking down. Corporate profits are slipping because they didn’t reinvest the tax break savings, rather they gave it to the top officers and major shareholders.

    Mark my words, the 2020 election is going to be the biggest Republican disaster in history if the GDP falls, and although every indicator isn’t quite down to that point, an important one is. A sudden pullback in spending among the wealthy could cascade down to the rest of the economy and create a further drag on growth.
    •High-end real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis.
    •Luxury retailers are struggling while discounters like Walmart and Target thrive.
    •At this month’s massive Pebble Beach car auctions, the most expensive cars faltered on the block.
    •In the first half of 2019, art auction sales were down for the first time in years.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/the-rich-arent-spending-signaling-a-possible-recession-ahead.html

    Not to mention how being impeached and a long, detailed House process that takes the impeachment to a final vote that must be followed by a Senate trial isn’t going to help the Republican spin machine much at all.

    #47902
    saveit
    Participant

    Wait this was posted in 2019. You mean we are being lied to that it wasn’t COVID-19 that caused this recession as it was already happening before 2020?

    I am shocked!!! Not Really.

    #47903
    Deane Johnson
    Participant

    Things are a bit different here in a deep Red state. My business is running double last year, I would prefer it slow down a little.

    I just read in the local paper that we’re setting records for new house building permits.

    People are honoring the masking requirement and social distancing, and getting on with life.

    It’s interesting what a positive attitude can do.

    #47905
    Brianl
    Participant

    Andy points out every single reason why Trump might well lose (and why the Republicans most likely will lose control of the Senate) come November 3rd.

    But, it is becoming glaringly clear that he will not honor the results of the election. He is doing everything he can to undercut and defund the USPS. He has already started pulling the levers of tossing out votes, claiming voter fraud. He is working overtime to pack the SCOTUS with RBG’s replacement, thanks to Mitch McConnell (talk about a steaming pile of hypocrisy here!) … just in time for that body to rule the results of the election, the Electoral College and the state bodies null and void, handing him the election.

    And that, Deane, will be the end of our democracy.

    Are you okay with this? I am not insulting your intelligence, as I have too much respect for you, but can’t you see how this is playing out. I know that business is booming for you, and I’m happy for you about that.

    We will end up in civil war. Trump supporters and federal agents, with armbands, have already said that they will go to battle for Trump. We have the BLM movement being undercut by alt-right movements, who commit much of the violence, with BLM getting the blame. We have a case in Louisville where the only cop that was charged was only charged because he shot through walls and windows into an adjacent apartment instead of Breonna Taylor. We have a mountain of evidence of the sheer corruption of the Trump administration, at levels never seen in this country. I could go on.

    This is okay to you? How is this acceptable?

    Are you willing to see the end of our democracy to make sure your guy gets back into office? Is this okay with you?

    Because it is not to me.

    #47906
    Deane Johnson
    Participant

    BrianL, what some people are not catching onto is that Trump is just yanking people’s chains. All of this is simply creating more air time. His core followers love it. He practically dominates CNN all day long. Nobody could ever buy that much time.

    I have no idea how the elections is going to turn out. But, Trump is smart enough to know that when his term is over, it’s over. What’s bugging him is that the GOP primarily votes in person, and the Dems are heavily oriented to vote by mail. So, better cast a lot of doubt on voting by mail.

    I’ve been around long enough now to understand that this too shall pass. Which ever side wins, whatever they do will ultimately go away.

    I think the best thing to do is pass along the solution they’ve come up with. To cut down the traffic at the voting locations, and to give more room for social distancing, the decision has been made to have the GOP vote on Tuesday and the Dems to vote on Wednesday.

    #47907
    Andrew
    Participant

    Deane: “To cut down the traffic at the voting locations, and to give more room for social distancing, the decision has been made to have the GOP vote on Tuesday and the Dems to vote on Wednesday.”

    Exactly. Democrats have to vote early on Wed, October 28. Republicans have until Tuesday, November 10 to get their ballots in this time, because their president is in the White House.

    #47909
    lastday
    Participant

    Not sure how an assessment of the state of our economy in late 2020 can not mention C-19.

    I know a guy who’s a sales manager at a large lumber mill in Eugene-Springfield. He says that after the initial lockdown confusion, during which their employees were cut to half-time, 2020 has rebounded into their best and most profitable year ever (and it still has three months to go). Of course, all that proves is lumber is selling very well and at high prices, in spite of everything else negatively affecting other parts of the economy.

    #47910
    paulwalker
    Participant

    The price of lumber has nothing to do with the political divide in the country, mostly caused by Trump. We have not been this divided since 1968, and some who were around then say today is worse. The country is in crisis. There is no question about this in my mind.

    #47911
    lastday
    Participant

    I failed to make my point. The economy is not in a complete state of disarray. Yet. There are segments of the economy doing exceptionally well, in spite of all the uncertainty.

    The country isn’t in crisis, yet. Stumbling, in shock and denial, definitely. False euphoria on the part of large investors. But crisis may be coming if the presidential election isn’t a blowout in favor of Biden-Harris.

    #47912
    Brianl
    Participant

    Deane – you really think Trump is just yanking people’s chain? What has he done to let you think that? The intentional obstruction of the USPS? Doing everything in his power to make sure his tax records aren’t released? The inciting of racial unrest and violence? The sheer ignoring and refuting of doctors, scientists and experts on everything under the sun, saying he knows better? (which also goes for his military leaders). The incessant crying about voter fraud if conducted by mail, in the middle of a global pandemic (which has been proven false at every step of the way)? That’s “yanking people’s chain”??

    Trump getting his way ends us up in a fascist state. Period. That is what he is and that is what he wants.

    #47913
    Andrew
    Participant

    Yeah, demand for coffins from Covid 19 has sure been a boon to the lumber industry. But once we have a vaccine and Covid finally starts going away, what will happen to those lumber jobs and to the price of lumber?

    Trump didn’t create the political divisions in the US – they were starkly there when he started his presidential bid in 2015. He merely exploited these divisions and made them worse – gas on the fire. But the country most certainly is in crisis – only people not paying attention to the news would think so. We are at a very dangerous place where the US hasn’t been for a long, long time. Our Democratic Republic is literally at risk.

    #47914
    lastday
    Participant

    Lol. New homes are being constructed around me in east Eugene at the highest rate I’ve seen in the 25 years I’ve lived here. And they’re selling. The lumber isn’t all going to coffin makers.

    New commercial construction in downtown Eugene is booming.

    Cloud computing, telemedicine, information technology in general all booming.

    I’m just saying there’s not a tidal wave of economic doom on the surface. Look deeper though and things may be less rosy.

    #47915
    paulwalker
    Participant

    “look deeper though and things may be less rosy”.

    This we agree on. The impacts of Covid are just setting in. I believe we are in for a continued deep recession, (one which already began earlier this year). A lot of industries have been propped up for various reasons, but that will not last much longer. Housing, for whatever reason, is doing well so your point there is well taken. (I think one reason is so many are now working from home, and that trend may well continue even past the pandemic). At best, this moment in history will change society somewhat and we may return to somewhat normalcy. At worst, it will change society greatly and people will desert big cities, office buildings, and life will be forever changed. I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but things will be changed to some extent for decades to come.

    #47916
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    The size of the drop in GDP is unprecedented. The amount of people that were thrown into unemployment situations over the last 6 months and remain jobless is big. Tell them things are “booming” and see how well that flies. Does the rich getting richer under drumpf strike a note?

    #47917
    semoochie
    Participant

    “We have not been this divided since 1968, and some who were around then say today is worse.”

    I was 15 in 1968 and I can tell you right now that at no time did I fear for the continued existence of the country! My main concern was Vietnam and I remember the protesters in Chicago and Mayor Daley’s response. I remember the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy. Never in the history of this country has the President been the enemy of All the people who aren’t rich, even if many of them don’t know it yet! If Trump is re-elected, they will!

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