What is the path to Dems retaking the Senate?

feedback.pdxradio.com forums feedback.pdxradio.com forums Politics and other things What is the path to Dems retaking the Senate?

Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #23080

    It appears to me, based on polling and some solid leads, that Republicans have a floor of 51 and will retain control. I think it’s also likely that they will win in PA and end up with at least 52.

    How are Democrats going to get to 50 (presuming Hillary wins) or 51 (presuming Trump wins) so they can take back the Senate?

    #23081
    Jeffrey Kopp
    Participant
    #23083
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Daily polling is effected by news and the location of the candidates and the specific questions in the poll.

    They are not worth all that much unless you look at the trends like Jeffrey suggests.

    Your precious one seat “lead” can change on a dime, Vernon. And you know that to be true. What the fuck are you going to say if in two weeks the 51 is a 50 and then two weeks after that it’s 49? Hillary has led in all the swing states at one time or another over the last 6 months. All it takes is some mud on drumpf that can not be avoided by the media and all hell will break loose.

    You can predict all you want but drumpf’s chances of winning the presidency are poor and the Senate is definitely in play. The way you write (poorly) is as if that the GOP hit that magic number last week and that it isn’t going to change. More grade school logic from the Pope of Bacon.

    #23086

    Thanks Jeffery. I looked at both sites.

    The second site has the Senate split at 50/50, but look at the overall polling in Missouri (which they give to the Dems). The Repbulican Blunt is up by about 4 and that’s a strong Republican state that they are very unlikely to lose, so that puts the Republicans at 51. Toomey has been surging a little in PA, so I think that state is very much in play for the Republicans, so if he wins, the Republicans hold onto 52 seats. I think this is likely, but I don’t see any way they end up with less than 51.

    #23087
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    You’re lackluster analysis only underscores your ignorance. Just because a poll shows one or the other party candidate with a lead today doesn’t mean:

    A. that future polling will reflect the same results
    B. that any poll at any time will be accurate (especially with so many state contests within the margin of error)
    C. that any poll at any time is taking into account turnout of voters.

    You are a grand fool to put so much belief in a poll or small sample of polls over such a short time period.

    Grow up, Vernon. The Senate is in play and according to many prognosticators, it’s going to the Democrats.

    Right now, the D’s hold 50 safe seats and the R’s only hold 49 safe seats. As drumpf begins his slide leading up to election day (its already beginning), he may drag some GOP Senate races right down the drain.

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-flip-flop/

Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.