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Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly.
“NO HE WON’T”
Crook county (Oregon) was formerly a Presidential bellwether county, voting with the winner since 1884, in 27 Presidential elections. However, the county lost its bellwether status after voting for George H. W. Bush in 1992.It further voted for the losing Presidential candidate in 1996 and 2008. (Wikipedia)
In short dork, past results do not guarantee future performance.
It doesn’t prove anything because he could be wrong this time.
But hasn’t anyone noticed how close this is electorally?The way I see it Trump has to flip just one state to take the lead. Probably his best bet is Colorado. If he can take Colorado and keep the leads he has, he wins.
Trump may very well end up breaking Professor Richtman’s model. Did you see the following not-so-favorable quote from the article that you linked?
Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.
We’ve never before seen a candidate who’s spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He’s the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, “Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.,” he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn’t believe it. We’ve never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We’ve never had a candidate before who’s threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We’ve never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.
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