November 8, 2019 at 10:23 pm #43229
Five months later after I started this thread…
It looks just as bad. The impeachment will go nowhere, perhaps actually boost his base. There is no strong democratic candidate. The Dems are actually “giving” Trump a second term. I have little hope anyone will break through. Get ready for it…Trump for four more years. Mark my words here less than a year out.November 9, 2019 at 12:01 am #43230
You were ludicrously wrong five months ago, and remain horribly misguided and incorrect. Allow me to offer metrics that support my conclusion that you are incorrect.
What can you offer in support of your misguided opinion? Nothing. You’ve been suckered by the GOP noise machine. You’re judging the entire politic of the country by the noise coming out of the Republican party whom are running scared. Very scared.
1. Everybody has already made up their mind about drumpf — and his numbers stink
2. His state numbers are just as bad
3. drumpf isn’t getting credit for the economy — and he won’t, either
4. He’ll keep screwing up
5. Hillary’s not running — neither is Hunter Biden
6. The public hearings on impeachment evidence goes public next week. drumpf is going to rant and rave but the witnesses lined up for the first days are going to be the most devastating blow to the drumpf campaign to happen yet. The drumpf faithful won’t pay attention but the huge conglomerate of swing voters will, especially the ones that don’t like to read transcripts of the private testimony recently made public.
Next Friday, expect the big GOP distortion machine to be in full swing, but the damage will be evident.
Does it matter who wins the Democratic nomination? Yes, to a certain degree, it does matter but not in the way that you might think. In about a month from now, the top Democratic candidates will all be leading drumpf in the polls. Not because they have gained very much individually, but drumpf will have lost in a big way. Who ultimately gets the nomination won’t matter because drumpf will be so damaged by one year from now and probably will resign before election day. This isn’t complicated like the Mueller investigation. This is simple shit that John and Judy 6 pack are going to see play out on T.V. They are going to see non political lifetime public employees of the military and government on their T.V.s telling the whole world how drumpf violated his oath of office many times.
You know what else? When presidential disapproval gets to 60%, Moscow Mitch is going to throw drumpf under the bus. Mitch only really cares about the Senate majority being lost and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, you can expect to see him do whatever it takes to preserve said majority.
Personally, my prediction of 3 years ago is still my opinion. drumpf won’t last his entire term. He will resign in disgrace rather than be convicted by the Senate. Pence will not be the next president, either, as he will find himself under indictment. Guliani will be convicted and sentenced to prison. I don’t know for sure if he will actually serve time. I hope he does, but he will never be able to practice law again (not that he does that anymore) or run for an office.
drumpf’s appeals at the Supreme Court will all fail.
Trumpf will be indicted and convicted by SDNY courts. He will have to pay a huge fine but won’t serve any time, either. I hope I’m wrong on that last point.November 9, 2019 at 2:02 pm #43232
Paul, I don’t know if Trump will win again or not. But, I’d be curious to know why you think you are better able to predict an election one year out than people in 1991 (who would have laughed silly had you predicted Bill Clinton would beat George Bush or that he would lose to anyone) or in 1995 (when people were speculating whether Clinton would even be re-nominated)?
Reagan looked pretty vulnerable in 1983 in the midst of a recession. I doubt many people thought he was going to win 49 states a year later.
How do you know what the economy will be like a year from now? What if it’s heading toward recession? Presidents usually lose re-election when the economy is poor – ask George Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Herbert Hoover.
As I said previously, predicting “Trump will win – mark my words!” is a risk-free prediction to make, because if he does, you can boast, “See? TOLD YA SO!” and if you are wrong, you can say, “Well, I hated the SOB – glad I was wrong!” and no one will care about your wrong prediction.
But if you are sure, you can certainly bet money on the 2020 election. How much money are you putting on Trump? If I was certain Trump would win (or not win), I’d certainly be betting on the election.November 9, 2019 at 4:49 pm #43233
Andrew and Andy, you both make some valid points. I admit I get carried away with my “mark my words” attitude. Of course anything can happen in 2020, I realize that obviously.
However, I should offer a little more on why I feel Trump will be re-elected. First, I am an intense media consumer. I really like the back and forth, (though lately is getting on my nerves). I watch both sides, CNN and Fox, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, PBS. I try and understand all viewpoints, but more importantly I think I have a pretty good sense of the mood of the electorate.
What I see is the same general theme as 2016. Polls back then predicted Hillary and they were of course dead wrong. Today, we see many of the top Democrats will beat Trump. Why wouldn’t they be dead wrong again?
The divisions have not been this heightened in my lifetime, and I’m no spring chicken. It is dangerous to our republic, and Trump is mainly responsible.
That said, he has a base that will rally around him. The impeachment process is just another way for his base to get back involved. Incumbents tend to win in these type of situations. Richard Nixon won in a landslide in ’72 despite the Watergate story developing before the election.
I also predicted George Walker Bush would win a 2nd term in 2004, when the dems felt they had an relatively easy path.
Again, I appreciate the dialogue here. I have never disliked a President more than our current one. And yes, a lot can happen in a year. But I stand by my prediction on this one. However, if events occur that would change that prediction, I wouldn’t hesitate to post it here.
November 9, 2019 at 8:06 pm #43235
- This reply was modified 1 week ago by paulwalker.
Paul, I don’t think being an “intense media consumer” makes you better informed, no offense; I think it may make you less informed. You’re consuming so much information that it warps how others may see things. More doesn’t mean better. There is an enormous amount of noise and hyperbole in the “media” of all types.
I suggest instead of constantly consuming so much “immediate media,” step back and read about past campaigns and how quickly things can change in politics and how unpredictable outcomes can be. I know you are familiar with past campaigns, but you may have forgotten the details. Things make a lot more sense in hindsight than they may trying to read about them while they are happening.
It’s actually a bit of a myth that all the polls assured Clinton would win in 2016. Actually, the national polls showed her winning the popular vote by about 3% and she won it by about 2%. Obviously the national popular vote is meaningless compared to the electoral college. Polls showed her ahead but narrowly in PA, MI,and WI, which she barely lost.
The truth is that so many of us (me too!) were so sure Clinton would win because we simply could not imagine Trump winning. It was unthinkable. Lots of people made predictions based not on the polls but on subjective ideas about who could be elected president.
And I think that some, like you, Paul, are doing the same thing now in Trump’s favor: you are so convinced that Trump can’t lose, because his victory was such a shock last time, that you’re overcompensating. He has this motivated base of followers. He seems invincible to you. So I believe you’re ignoring all of his vulnerabilities.
First – look at his abysmal approval ratings. With the economy doing so well, how can you explain his terrible ratings? And what happens if the economy slows down by next fall?
Second, look at the elections that have taken place since 2016. Look at the massive, historic turn-out in 2018 that swept Republicans from control of the House. You can’t explain that except for anger and fear of Trump. Look at last week’s Republican loss of the governorship in Kentucky: Trump’s guy lost, after Trump made a big deal of campaigning for him: IN KENTUCKY! Clearly not everything Trump touches politically turns to gold; some of his candidates turn to shit.
Third: impeachment has definitely hurt Trump (his approval ratings declined again after the scandal started). Sure, it may motivate his base – but there aren’t nearly enough voters in his base to win by themselves. He needs independent swing voters to in, as he did in 2016, when so many hated Clinton.
Fourth: I believe there was a lot of complacency in 2016 about Clinton winning. Because some voters may have believed she was going to win anyway, but weren’t really big fans of hers, why go out of their way to vote? In states like PA, there is no early voting; you have to go to the polls on election day unless you qualify for an absentee ballot. Friends of mine waited for hours to vote in line in PA in 2016. If you showed up at your polling place seeing a long line and figured Clinton was going to in anyway…why wait three hours in line, especially if you don’t really like her?
In 2020, I doubt people will be so complacent. People know how awful Trump is now, and they will be less likely to believe rosy projections in the media – everyone will say, “Remember what happened in 2016!”
I believe the same surge in turnout we saw in 2018 will happen again in 2020. Enough beat Trump? I don’t know. That all depends who the Democrats nominate.
But, unlike you, I’m just not so pessimistic about the Democrats’s supposed disorganization. Go back and read about Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. He may be remembered now as a beloved Democratic sage by Democrats, but the guy was anything but that in 1992. I remember 1992: it didn’t seem like the Democrats had anyone good. I didn’t care much for Clinton then (or anyone) though I voted for him in the general election. Remembering how rocky his campaign was and how weak he seemed as a candidate, it’s really not hard for me to imagine Biden or even Elizabeth Warren beating Trump in 2020. They both already seem a lot better organized and solid than Clinton was in 1991 and early 1992.November 9, 2019 at 8:10 pm #43236
P.S. Anger and fear are huge motivating factors in elections (see: 2018). And I think a lot of people, not just Democrats, are angry at Trump and fearful of what a second term would mean. There was no such anger running against Trump in 2016, because he hadn’t been president to do the awful things yet. Now he has a record.November 9, 2019 at 9:51 pm #43237
Food for thought, Andrew. Thanks. I am still concerned, however.November 9, 2019 at 10:28 pm #43238
Sure, Paul, and so am I. I am certainly not sitting back confident that Trump is going to lose. I’m quite nervous about it. But I also haven’t completely given up on the Democrats winning in 2020 and resigned myself completely to Trump’s re-election the way you have. I don’t know if Trump will win or lose, but I think it’s obvious he is very vulnerable in 2020.November 10, 2019 at 12:51 am #43239
Probably what hurt George H.W. Bush more than anything was Ross Perot. It is absolutely necessary for the republicans to get rid of Trump before the election. Otherwise, he’ll work with the Russians and Chinese to fake the election results and won’t leave until he turns the Presidency over to his kids! It’s the only way he can stay out of prison. There’s just too much on him.November 10, 2019 at 11:03 am #43241
It will be interesting to see what the Never Trumpers do heading into primary season. If they are worthy of their label, they will put up at least one person to challenge Trump. If they don’t, then their protestations (then and now) will have proven to be hollow, and I think that will make people think twice about the GOP’s ability to rein in Trump. If they do put those candidates, up, that will divide the right nicely, and make a Trump win much more unlikely.
I heard a commentator say that Trump’s win is not the beginning of a trend, but rather the death throes of an ideology and a party that is desperate to remain relevant in a changing world.
Multiculturalism, climate change, renewable energy, the decline of a manufacturing-based middle class economy…this is the world we live in now, and the Trump voter is kicking and screaming to “Make America Great* Again”. But the tides of history are not in their favor.November 10, 2019 at 12:18 pm #43242
Good points, edselehr.
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