June 25, 2019 at 9:37 pm #41903
Unless the dems can get their act together. Right now, it looks like a lock for a 2nd Trump term. The Dems are disorganized and have too many divergent viewpoints. It is a hot mess. I hope there can be some coming together in the party but I am not hopeful. Get used to a 2nd Trump term.June 25, 2019 at 9:59 pm #41904
Way too early for me to make any kind of predictions…then again, I never make predictions.
I don’t mind the large convention of Dems who are running for president. It’s a diverse group and, for my money, reflects what America actually looks and sounds like. Our politics have changed due to Trump. He owns it at the moment, but I believe, eventually, the Dems will converge in a more unified voice. It will get ugly and messy at times…but that is how we seem to do it.
I’m not leaning for one candidate over another. But I will support whomever the Dems finally choose. Even if it means swallowing some political crow.June 25, 2019 at 10:07 pm #41905
No one betting money on the 2020 race would be foolish enough to place a bet this soon without amazing odds. They might look for example at Bill Clinton’s poll numbers in 1995 (“He’ll NEVER be re-elected; will he even be re-nominated?”)) or George Bush’s in June 1991, after his recent 91% approval rating after the first Gulf War. (He’ll be re-elected EASILY – none of the top-tier Democrats would be foolish enough to run against him!)
Thing can change fast in politics, and the November election is almost 500 days away. Sure the Democrats look a little disorganized now – but a year is an eternity in politics. By June 2020, they might be strong and united behind a good nominee.
Still, it’s a no-risk prediction, really, to claim Trump will win in 2020. If he wins, you can say, “See – told ya so!” He he loses, you can say, “Dang, I was wrong – But I”M GLAD, I HATED THE SOB – hurray!” And none of the other Trump detractors will hold it against you; they’ll all be too delirious and relieved to care what you thought.
I make no prediction. Anyone who does is just guessing. Incumbent presidents are usually re-elected, unless the economy is bad – so if the economy is still doing at least OK by next fall, that should point to his re-election. But his popularity numbers are unusually low for president presiding over such a strong economy. His numbers have never been good – either bad or really bad. Given how razor-thin his margins were in PA, MI, and WI in 2016, it’s not really that hard to see him losing all three states and also all the states Hillary won in 2016 to the Democrat.
Still too early to tell!June 25, 2019 at 10:19 pm #41906
Chris: “I’m not leaning for one candidate over another. But I will support whomever the Dems finally choose. Even if it means swallowing some political crow.”
Til recently I’ve assumed that 2020 will be a close race, that the Democrats really need to nominate someone good to beat Trump. But I’m starting to wonder if it will really be that close, whether Trump may get blown out. It’s just really unusual for a president’s approval ratings to be in the toilet with a booming economy. What happens to his approval ratings if the economy slows down by next year?
So I think even my least favorite candidates might have a shot at beating Trump in 2020.
I still don’t like Sanders – I think he would be a disaster as president, would run head-long into Congress, even a Democratic Congress, if the Dems can take back the Senate, who are mostly going to resist his “revolution.” I DO NOT want him to be the nominee.
But I’m starting to come around on Elizabeth Warren, even though I still hate her whole “go after the rich with a pitchfork” populist approach. I think she would be an ineffective president, but she might do well enough if she’ll sign key bills coming out of Congress (assuming Dems can re-take the Senate, which may not happen). I think she is less dogmatic than Sanders. And I think even she might be able to beat Trump in 2020 – still not sure. I don’t think her “policy wonk” approach that so many liberal Democrats like will go over so well with independent swing voters – but we’ll see if it gets to that point!June 25, 2019 at 10:27 pm #41907
Pete Buttigieg sounds like a sensible guy, whose pragmatic approach to government is much in line with my views. But I doubt he would have the gravity to work with Congress, which is so important. He’s NOBODY – just a mayor from Indiana. You may say, “But what about Obama in 2008?” Well…Obama made important friends before he ran for president. He had power brokers like Harry Reid urging him to take on Clinton long before he actually entered the race. As far as I know, Buttigieg has no one.
Plus, I worry not just about Buttigieg’s being gay – I worry that too many independent swing voters aren’t ready for the idea of a gay man with a HUSBAND in the White House. There’s a difference between accepting that someone’s sexuality is their business, not mine – and having your elected leader role modeling your values to your kids. I think America was ready for a black president in 2008 but may not be ready for a gay man with a husband in 2020. And if you think having a black man in the White House stirred up the racist undertow in the Republican party, just wait until you see what a gay man in the White House would do to the social conservatives on the right.
Kamala Harris seems fake – every time I see her at an event when she uses that fake laugh, I want to hurl. I think authenticity will go a long way in the Democratic party, and she doesn’t have it. Warren does, as much as I dislike her.
I’m still holding out for O’Rourke, Booker, or Klobuchar to make a move, find a voice and a message, a theme, and break out. But none of them looks so promising at this point. Hoping the debates change things!
Biden is still my default choice otherwise. He’s a flawed candidate with a lot of baggage – but despite my doubts about him, I have to keep asking, “If not Biden, then who better?”June 26, 2019 at 1:19 am #41908
There is some thought that after Mueller testifies on July 17th, things might start to turn around. We’ll see. They don’t seem to have a problem with a serial sex offender in office(“She’s not my type.”)so I don’t expect any problem with a “straight as an arrow” man who happens to be gay. Here’s some good news: What Trump thought was “his” Supreme Court, came out big time in favor of freedom of speech, basically saying that it is absolute, with no conditions! This may be the best news ever!June 26, 2019 at 8:19 am #41910
I almost started this exact same thread yesterday. Paul beat me to it.June 26, 2019 at 12:06 pm #41911
I currently see an electoral map that stays the same as 2016, but with PA, MI, and WI fliping back to the Dems. So if beating Trump is the number one goal, we should watch those states carefully to see who would be the best candidate to win back those states.June 26, 2019 at 2:51 pm #41912
Yes, we can hope for those States to flip back…and maybe, just maybe Florida and Ohio too. That would do it.
Of course, it is too early to make an accurate prediction, and yes I played fast and loose with the title of the thread. My goal with this was to express my concern that the party has become too left wing to beat Trump. I don’t like a party with such a wide divergence of thought. It splinters the party at the end of the day. (Of course the GOP is framing this as a socialist/communist movement, and they are doing it quite skillfully.) Hopefully it will play out quickly and in the end can perhaps beat Trump in just over 16 months from today.June 26, 2019 at 5:13 pm #41913
Paul: “My goal with this was to express my concern that the party has become too left wing to beat Trump.”
Well…if you ask the Biden campaign, they would say (have said, off the record) that the Democratic Party HAS NOT actually moved too far to the left – it’s the media and the “twittersphere” that give people that impression. They are betting the party is really much less liberal than you’d think watching the news, when media darlings like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez get so much attention, distorting the impression. Instead, they think the actual electorate is much more moderate – and that’s how they have positioned Biden. They think he can win the nomination by not being as liberal as the others.
I think Biden’s people are probably right. I just don’t know if he is the right candidate.June 26, 2019 at 5:58 pm #41914
Andrew: “I just don’t know if he (Biden) is the right candidate.”
And therein is the problem.June 26, 2019 at 8:25 pm #41915
Thanks for your input. I actually agree with much of what you posted. But I am cautious by nature.
When I take my political bias out of the equation, the unprecedented nature of this post-Trump election, feels as if its forced the Dem’s hand. But that may not be a bad thing.
I’m not bothered by how many are running on the Dem side. But, if the Dems win the White House back, and are lucky to pick up the Senate, it would be interesting to see how many in this current group will find cabinet positions.
It’s gonna be a long, exhausting sprint to whomever gets the nod.June 26, 2019 at 9:31 pm #41916
Paul: “Andrew: “I just don’t know if he (Biden) is the right candidate.”
And therein is the problem.”
It’s only a problem if no other candidate takes his strategy instead of him and wins with it. If they all follow the lead of Sanders or Warren and try to out-liberal each other, then Biden is probably going to win – because that’s where the party base really is. It’s political dogma that you have to tack to the left or right in the Democratic or Republican party to win the nomination then come back to the center – but I agree that some of the candidates have gone much too far to the left. The Democratic primary voters should correct that mistake, if it’s true, and nominate someone less liberal.
But who then if not Biden? I’m still looking at Corey Booker, who I think did well in the debate tonight. Still wish Klobuchar could pick it up – she did OK in the debate too but didn’t quite step out like she needs to But think those two are probably closer to where the base of the party is than the Warrens and Sanders’s.June 26, 2019 at 9:43 pm #41918
It is possible. Also depending on how much interference comes from Russia or any other country. Trump is not liked, but considering how crooked some areas with voting, who knows? A friend forecasted years ago that there may be a break-up in this country if we stay on the same road. This country is so divided now. What kind of country will be have by 2024 if Trump says in too.June 27, 2019 at 1:37 pm #41920
I think Sanders is too radical also. Has good ideas, but even a Democratic Senate will not go along with him on many issues. This is not Europe. Elisabeth Warren or even Biden makes a better choice. I think people would be more apt to vote for a moderate.
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