October 9, 2019 at 7:27 pm #42836
While I wish this was the headline today, I believe it’s a headline we will see at some point in the near future.
We know the House has the votes to file for impeachment. We also know the Senate has the votes to acquit him as of today.
But, we are now seeing polls that show over 50% approve of impeachment. As more and more damaging information comes out and more voters approve of removing him, Trump’s support in the Senate will collapse as it becomes more and more apparent that the SS Trump has taken on too much water and it’s time to jump ship.
After all, rats have a zeal for life.October 9, 2019 at 7:55 pm #42837
I don’t really see how Trump would ever resign. The guy has a martyr complex – and if anything, he wants to keep fighting forever. If he gets impeached and convicted, there’s nothing to silence him (unless he’s actually prosecuted in the court system after leaving office and sent to prison or something). He can claim til the end of his days that he was forced out by his enemies. And his loyal supporters will continue to fill arenas hearing him cheer them on.
I don’t think the public opinion polls about impeachment mean any more than they do for a presidential election. Just like the electoral college, not the popular vote, means something in a presidential election, so in an impeachment trial do the polls in each STATE. When the polls in Alabama and South Carolina start trending in favor of impeachment and conviction, then you might have something. Don’t really see that happening – yet.
Republican Senators who might considering a vote for conviction have to contend with being primaried in their states and condemned as traitors by the hard-core Republican base (where, I believe, Trump is STILL popular). Yeah, these Senators may fear for their re-election chances in say 2020 if they are up based on their impeachment/convict vote, but that cuts both ways. They could lose a general election due to voting not to convict…but if they can’t even win the Republican primary, what difference does it make?
I do hope 20 Republican Senators come to their senses and do the right thing for the country, but I’m still not betting on it.October 9, 2019 at 9:29 pm #42839
Not likely he will resign. His ego won’t allow that. The Senate, as of now, will keep him in office. Though things could change.
Using my On-Demand with Spectrum this evening I located an SNL episode that Trump hosted in November of 2015. Not the best SNL, but fascinating that even a year before his election there was some interesting fore-telling here. Try to find it for a real look at some early indicators that nobody noticed back then.October 10, 2019 at 12:13 am #42842
There is a new Fox News poll that shows 51% in favor of Trump actually being removed from office! Mitt Romney reportedly plans to encourage key republican senators to vote that way. Things are starting to change quickly.October 10, 2019 at 2:10 pm #42849
I think there’s a greater chance of him being carried out of the oval office in a strait jacket in a fetal position than resigning.October 10, 2019 at 3:25 pm #42850
I believe that Trump would resign before he would let any of the following happen:
a) Proof becomes known that foreign influence was measurablely instrumental in his 2016 win,
b) Putin has financial or reputational (“pee tape”) leverage on Trump,
c) His tax returns are allowed to fully come to light.
Trump’s entire self concept is his wealth, and his narcissism. Threaten either, and he freaks out and lashes out – and in the worst case, I think he would run. He owns lots of places in the world to run to.October 10, 2019 at 8:38 pm #42851
I agree.October 10, 2019 at 9:26 pm #42853
A, B, and C no longer apply.
Ukrainegate will bring down many in time.
Every day is brining more and more damaging info on Trump. It’s only a matter to time before Senate support for removal becomes apparent and that’s when Trump resigns.October 10, 2019 at 9:43 pm #42854
Fair enough, but in a spirit of schadenfreude, I’d like to see my scenario happen.October 10, 2019 at 9:58 pm #42856
I think the impeachment thing is the right thing to do but it does carry risk. But I’m willing to take that risk because as shit gets more serious, it looks worse and worse for Trump.October 10, 2019 at 10:05 pm #42857
I don’t think the Democrats really had/have a choice about impeachment once the Ukraine call story came out. They HAVE to impeach him over this – if not over this, then no president would ever have to worry about being impeached over anything. I think the Democratic base would have revolted, and independent swing voters would have become disgusted.
But I still don’t see any scenario in which Trump would resign.October 11, 2019 at 12:27 am #42863
Vit, I don’t have enough confidence (yet) in the moral compasses of Senate Republicans to think that the impeachment process will expel Trump from office.
Because this isn’t about Trump anymore. It’s about those who have enabled him, and if they will begin to think beyond their own narrow, short-sighted self interest.October 11, 2019 at 12:40 am #42865
It’s getting clearer every day that the entire drumpf political apparatus has failed and is going down big time.
Once the Senate Repugnicans begin to feel their own reelection is at risk (driven by popular opinion in their constituency), they will discard drumpf. Meanwhile, as the evidence continues to mount against this administration, public support will continue to mount for removal from office. It’s on the rise already in most all of the polls and has already moved from plurality to majority. That fact alone speaks volumes. It’s really just a matter of time until we wake up and find that drumpf has either:
Left the country
both of the above
The Democrats will probably indict Pence right before the Senate vote. His day in court will be pushed off into the future (after drumpf is expelled).
Chief Justice Roberts will reject all the last minute maneuvers by drumpf’s legal team to avoid his conviction.
Rudy is going to be convicted. His sentence may very well be suspended, unfortunately. He’s got so many friends in high places. They won’t be able to prevent his being found guilty, though.October 11, 2019 at 1:49 pm #42871
I think the best way to assure that Trump is not convicted in the Senate is to even threaten to go after Pence, too. Senate Republicans may be pissed at Trump now for more than one reason, but an effort to get Pelosi as president is just never going to happen. No way 20 Republicans will ever vote to do that.
Democrats could try to impeach Pence too, but Republicans will never convict him to make Pelosi president. NEVER. Impeaching Pence would make them look like they are just trying to get rid of both Republican candidates elected in 2016. I’m guessing that support for even impeaching Pence in the House might not be there among Democrats.
Democrats need to have a laser focus on Ukraine and obstruction of justice related to Ukraine for Trump. Period. No side shows with Pence etc. if they have any hope at all at getting Republicans to vote to convict.October 11, 2019 at 3:39 pm #42872
This is not all as cut ‘n dried as we would like to think.
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