November 7, 2018 at 3:22 pm #40088
So Trump boasted about the Republicans flipping Senate seats in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota – all states he won (and except for Florida, by huge margins). Too bad for him that the Democrats flipped Nevada and that Democrats held on in red West Virginia and Montana (where Trump critic Jon Tester pulled it out).
But how did Republicans do in the blue states? No so well. If you count PA, WI, and MI, states Trump narrowly won in 2016, Republicans lost badly.
Senate seats were up in PA, MI, and WI. Democrats won all of them.
Governorships were up in PA, MI, and WI. Democrats won all of those, too. (Buh bye, Scott Walker!) Recall that as recently as 2012, Republicans had all of those governorships.
Democrats picked up four House seats in PA and two in Michigan.
Obviously, unlike those red states where Trump won in 2016 and Republicans just picked up Senate seats, those three states are NOT safe states for Trump in 2020! Nor did Republicans make any inroads in blue states in the 2018 elections. They even lost a Senate seat in Nevada, another state Hillary won.
Obviously Trump is very vulnerable in all three of them; his divisive rhetoric that may have helped him in red states surely hurt him there.
In 2020, Trump won’t be running against Hillary Clinton again. If he can’t win at least one of those three close states where Republicans got buried last night, he’s toast. Trump hasn’t shown any strength in any of the blue states. In fact, states like Florida and Arizona might be vulnerable. Florida voters yesterday passed a ballot amendment restoring voting rights to convicted felons – about a million(!) of them who currently can’t vote, many of them black.
But the Dems don’t even need Florida – all they need to do is win PA, MI, and WI. After last night, that doesn’t look so far fetched – assuming the Dems can nominate a good candidate who will do well there. Presumably any Dem who could win those three states would be able to win all the other states Hillary won – and then it’s buh-bye Trump.November 7, 2018 at 6:20 pm #40092
I know I’ve asked this before, but who would be your short list for Dems to run in 2020….can you add some pros/cons, if you don’t mind?November 7, 2018 at 9:48 pm #40093
Hi Chris. I don’t honestly know the potential 2020 candidates that well yet. I haven’t watched much TV news since 2016. I’m familiar with most of them from reading about them. People like Kamala Harris for example I’ve not even heard speak.
My personal favorite would be Joe Biden. Not saying he’s the best candidate, just that he’s my favorite. I do think he’d have a good shot at winning PA, MI, and WI. He has a kind of “down to earth” appeal that many Democrats who seem too intellectual lack. But Joe has a long history of gaffes and two failed presidential runs in his past. And, historically Democrats do better with fresh faces when challenging incumbent presidents than they do with party veterans like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, and Walter Mondale.
I don’t think Biden’s age is really a factor against Trump, who is only four years younger. Would a voter in PA really be torn between the two and say, “Gee, I guess I’ll vote for Trump because Biden’s a little too old??” I don’t think so.
Not even sure Joe can get nominated anyway.
I think there will be enormous pressure within the Democratic party in 2020 to nominate another woman. Kirsten Gillibrand claims she’s not running. Elizabeth Warren probably is. Sounds like Harris might be too. I’ve never been a big fan of Warren myself. She seems too shrill, too populist to me. I don’t know if she’d play well in PA.
I can’t say I’m a big Cory Booker fan at this point, but if running another African American in 2020 motivates black voters to come out again in Philly and Pittsburgh (black turnout was down in 2016), so be it – anyone who can beat Trump is who I want to run.
I really want to see the potential candidates give speeches and debate before I make any sort of judgement. The spotlight and fatigue of the campaign trail tests candidates – we get to see how they hold up under pressure. We should start to see some candidates declare early next year, and will probably start to see some debates between the primary challengers within about a year. Obama declared his candidacy in February 2007, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some people declare really soon. I suspect it will be a crowded field.November 7, 2018 at 10:40 pm #40094
I like Biden too – a lot. I believe he is best capable of calling out Trump on his BS – I don’t see any other Democrat candidate out there with the same combination of gravitas and chutzpah. But I also believe his last chance was 2016, and since that didn’t work out for him, he’s now elevated to elder statesman, and done with campaigning.
The rest of your list is the same as mine – Booker, Harris, and Warren. Of the three, I’m currently liking Harris the best.November 8, 2018 at 8:13 am #40098
Thanks, Andrew and Edselehr.
I’ve been hearing and reading about some of the women that won seats in the House and its a nice crossection of youth and varied experience. For me, it’s a more snapshot of what the American landscape has been becoming. Now, can they handle the pressure of some old school tactics they had to overcome to be able to add quality legislation and be the voice for many who have been marginalized.
Andrew, I look forward to eventually seeing who you endorse.November 8, 2018 at 9:48 am #40099
I must say, I’m extremely impressed with Beto O’Rourke. I know he lost a tight race to Ted Cruz, but he almost pulled it out in a dead-red state.
He’s young. He resonates very well. He ran a great campaign, and touched all parts of Texas. He clearly will put forth the effort to do what it takes, and I think that would translate to once he is in office as well. He especially resonates with women and minorities, and that’s going to be the key moving forward.November 8, 2018 at 12:15 pm #40101
I’m on the Beto bandwagon at this point. If he can do what he did in Texas on a national basis, he will win.
Personally, I really like Biden but he’s just too old. We need new blood. Someone younger.
And please, no Elizabeth Warren. She will lose to Trump.November 8, 2018 at 1:15 pm #40103
Beto has to decide whether to go after Cornyn’s Senate seat in 2020 or enter into the presidential carousel (or would it be roller coaster?).
Joe Biden would make an excellent president, is not too old but may suffer due to the fact that he is considered by many to be part of the old guard. I know from my years in PA. that he is truly loved by the coal miners in northern central PA. and labor in general. He doesn’t take any crap but sometimes reacts too quickly without taking measure of his words, or at least was as such as a Senator. His tenure as VP actually helped him pull back on that.
The Democratic party is rising largely due to drumpf’s attack on America. Trying to predict the support for the plethora of possible nominees is just guessing at this point.
Nominating another woman or minority may be risky, but many said that about Barack and he won handily twice. Clearly, if nothing else, drumpf’s rise is a stark reminder that there are plenty of white male privileged voters out there that are more than willing to vote against their own best interest in support of another while male privileged man child.
This time around, the Democrats have to stay focused on beating drumpf unless Robert Mueller’s report is sufficient to remove drumpf from office with bipartisan consent. That would change the complexion of who the Dems could nominate and win with.
I’m hoping that short term, Mueller’s data in combination with a soon to be Democratic majority in the house prevents drumpf from telling his newly appointed temporary A.G. hack to obstruct justice by reigning in the Mueller probe, because if that happens between now and January, all hell is going to break loose.November 9, 2018 at 1:22 am #40122
It seems that the acting AG’s appointment is unconstitutional. There are several criteria to meet and he falls short on all of them. Did you know that Beto O’Rourke is one year older than Ted Cruz?November 9, 2018 at 2:00 am #40124
Check your math… Beto is 46, Cruz is 47.November 10, 2018 at 1:22 am #40132
I heard it on the news and assumed it to be true because I thought it had an “oh wow” quality to it. I’m guessing it was just an error. Nevertheless, I didn’t expect them to be less than two years apart.
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