June 21, 2017 at 6:18 pm #30101
Nancy Pelosi, for the benefit of Democrats, needs to step aside as Minority Leader. She is toxic outside of her district, has unfavorable ratings similar to Hillary, and is doing the party no good in trying to regain control of the House.
I’m not personally anti-Pelosi in any way, but she is clearly a drag. Time for someone else to fill the void.June 21, 2017 at 6:51 pm #30102
I think people are overreacting to these open seat elections and reading way too much into them. These are all districts Dems haven’t held for a while. They did better in these recent elections than in the past, even if they didn’t win. It’s a shame expectations for Dems to win them have been so high – hopelessly realistic, I think.June 21, 2017 at 7:54 pm #30104
Pelosi is poison to the Democratic brand outside of her district. Similar to the poison Hillary brought nationally.
Those in power must realize the leader of the group matters, and so do optics. In that regard, she sucks. I’m happy for her service, but she needs to step aside. Democrats need new blood. Pelosi is a drag nationally.June 22, 2017 at 9:19 am #30112
That district in Georgia is a deep red, gerrymandered, Republican district that hasn’t been held by a Democrat in decades. It’s not blue, blue leaning, or even purple. It’s red.
That a Democrat almost won it in spite of those borderline insurmountable institutional challenges is the story; though many will argue otherwise for their own reasons. Many of them, abjectly dishonest.
Allow me to quote one of the all time greats:
“Five letters here just for everybody out there in Packer-land: R-E-L-A-X,” -Aaron Rodgers
Football is not politics, but under the particular circumstances I think it’s apt.June 22, 2017 at 10:06 am #30115
What would be a reasonable margin to say a candidate “almost won”? Maybe something like .5%?
To lose by 3.8 points after having spent $30 million is not an “almost win” IMHO.June 22, 2017 at 10:48 am #30117
Bacon, here’s an article I challenge you to wrap your head around:
A couple excerpts:
“But, overall, the trend is clear. Democratic special-election candidates have improved their margins over Republicans relative to their district’s partisan lean by an average of 14.4 percentage points. This pattern has popped up in districts from rural Minnesota to the suburbs of Atlanta to the Black Belt of Louisiana. In two instances (New Hampshire House District Carroll 6 and New York Assembly District 9), the shift was enough to flip the seat from red to blue. As Trump himself might say, ‘There’s something going on.'”
“[L]egislative special elections aren’t good only for predicting who will control the House of Representatives in two years. They’re also leading indicators of future gubernatorial and — get this — state legislative results. If nothing else, 2017’s legislative elections so far put Democrats on track to make big gains in statehouses across the country in 2018 — the sector of government where the party suffered the most during the Obama years. That’s important because the next round of redistricting is less than four years away, meaning 2018 will decide many of the governors and legislators who will draw the congressional districts of the 2020s.”
Remember Bacon, fivethirtyeight.com was one of the more accurate prognosticators on Nov. 8th, giving Hillary only a 70% chance of beating Trump (they were seeing the Trump surge when no one else (except you) was.)
So be careful with your knee-jerk dismissiveness of this pro-Dem data.June 22, 2017 at 1:08 pm #30118
The only thing I dismissed was the idea that Ossoff “almost won.”
Should a 3.8 margin in that district be a concern for Republicans? I don’t know. There are many variables, such as the personalities of the individual candidates and that much money was poured into this race, especially by the Democrats.
Trump’s margin over Hillary in that district was jut 1.5. Could we infer then that Trump has picked up some support?
Wasn’t the conventional wisdom that the people are so angry and fed up with Trump that even in this red district they would use this opportunity to send a message to Washington, such as what happened when the Ted Kennedy seat went red?June 22, 2017 at 2:13 pm #30119
That the Dems got this close in this district is a huge win, even if the seat didn’t turn.
However, Pelosi should have gone a long time ago. She can’t get a damned thing done. I’ve been calling for her to go since she was unable to get a health care bill including a public option through the House with a Dem majority. Sen Schumer is already doing a much better job in the Senate than Harry Reid ever did, it’s now time for the House Dems to get better leadership.
I wonder how she has managed to stay in power for so long. Is she the real Frank Underwood, with a file on everyone she needs to control?June 22, 2017 at 4:20 pm #30126
I wonder if Bacon has ever had a thought that wasn’t already provided for him by a right wing blog.June 22, 2017 at 9:27 pm #30129
Bacon suffers from a high functioning mental illness. Probably on the same spectrum as engineers and accountants.
With all the so-called silver lining stories, the bottom line for me is this: The same district voted for Handel at a higher percentage than they did for Trump over Clinton. R vs D, and the D underperformed Hillary!
There is no other way to spin this other than another setback for the D’s.June 22, 2017 at 11:55 pm #30132
The Democratic Party- The party of irrelevance.June 23, 2017 at 1:01 am #30135
Pelosi is needed at this time to keep the Democrats in Congress unified while we deal with this bad hand. Some time closer to election day 2018 would be much better.June 23, 2017 at 6:53 am #30137
“Trump’s margin over Hillary in that district was jut 1.5. Could we infer then that Trump has picked up some support?”
Perhaps. But the Trump base is quite a bit smaller than the Democratic base nationwide. The problem is that the idiot Democrats won’t vote, while the Trumpites will. If heated political times like this, both will turn out more, and the backs-against-the-wall Trumpers will vote the most. Good for them. But once the Democrats figure out how to mobilize their base, then a lot of currently red districts will get tsunamied. And it can’t be just Anti-Trumpism that motivates them, but a real unified vision of the future. This can happen if the Bernie-bots and Hillary supporters find common ground. And I think eventually they will.June 24, 2017 at 9:20 pm #30168
The rapid pace of change in American life does not exempt politics.June 25, 2017 at 1:13 am #30170
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