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Stock market down 17%.
Bond yields plunging, currently at an all-time low.
Oil crashing, worst since first Gulf War.
And the Corona virus isn’t going away.
At the point this reaches the housing market is when the shit really hits the fan.
“The drop in oil prices is good for Consumers! Lower Gas Prices! The market will recover! Life goes on!”
I’m paraphrasing but that’s basically what he said.
Remember, before this morning’s blowout on Wall Street, the following had already occurred:
•The Fed dropped interest rates by .05%, down to 1.25%.
•All three major U.S. stock market indexes lost over 10% of their value in what was the worst five-day trading session since 2008.
•The bond market plummeted, with the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield dipping below 1% for the first time ever.
•The Senate approved $8.3 billion in emergency funding for the coronavirus.
Yet today’s knee jerk reaction to the oil price war didn’t seem to care about much else.
Tomorrow the market may recover somewhat as cooler heads prevail, but the writing is on the wall. The long overdue recession is here, just in time to screw up first, second and third quarter GDP. I expect first quarter to be flat, 2nd and 3rd quarter to be negative, so “officially” the recession will be upon us come October right before the election.
Trumpf will blame everyone and everything but himself, and he will blame his loss in November on it, too. What Congress couldn’t do to get rid of him sooner will see to it that he’s a one termer because face the facts, when people who vote their wallet are losing money, they do not support the incumbent president.
The first step to fix it includes (but is not limited to) getting rid of those tax breaks that the drumpf Republicans put in place. Big companies did not reinvest that tax break money into themselves, they just gave it away in bonuses and dividends. They will soon regret that if they don’t already.
As far as how long until this effects the housing market depends on the coronavirus situation. The problem is getting worse, not better. The airlines are already feeling the pinch. This summer’s vacation spending could and probably will take a huge hit. Wealthy foreigners will continue to buy American real estate, but that alone will not immunize the real estate industry.
There’s not much you can do, either.
Had there been a more responsible person leading The White House and had the Republican Party leaders not been the gutless cretins we now know them as, the economy would be less at risk, we’d all be less at risk with health care issues, and the threat of a global recession might be a lot less intense.
2nd attempt:
Yippie, we will save a few bucks when we fill up our tanks, and lose 20%+ of our 401K’s. Sounds like a pretty even deal to me.
Bounced back today. Saudi’s putting lots of oil into the market. But futures are showing losses. What a ride, hang on tight.
Remember just last week? Monday huge loss, Tuesday big rebound, Wednesday another huge loss. Setting up the same this week. Yep, Chris fasten you’re seat belts it’s going to be bumpy week.
Federal Reserve is cutting rates to near zero.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/economy/federal-reserve/index.html
Federal Reserve cut the benchmark rate to zero today. Overnight futures market is down 1000+ after this news.
Layoffs have already started. More to come as we see everything shut down.
The market has not bottomed yet. More losses to come.
I think of the big crises that have really shaken America in the last century, and caused a significant reset of the way America functions.
Great Depression – Economic crisis
World War – Political Crisis
COVID-19 – Biological CrisisI think we can look back to the changes we experienced in the first two crises listed above as a rough roadmap of how this might play out.
– Major reset of societal norms of interaction
– Breakdown of social taboos as we band together to address threat
– Extreme fear of major changes in society (e.g. “Red Scare”) as we move to a new normal.
– Renewal and improved appreciation of international alliancesThis is just a conversation-starter post. Am I on the right track here? How else might this be similar/different from our previous crises?
The fundamental difference is that we have highly defective leadership unlike any other in the last century here in the U.S.
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