The GOP 2016

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #11478
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Perhaps it is time to start a new thread about all the many, (ok, sorry), dozens of GOP candidates who want to be President in 2016. Let’s go.

    Jeb Bush is a certainty to be an entrant here in June 2015. He probably will immediately go to the front of the pack. Let’s continue this discussion here. Who is a contender, and who is a joke? Let it rip.

    #11487
    skeptical
    Participant

    Jeb has appeared on the stage with a foot already in his mouth.

    #11488
    duxrule
    Participant

    Shrub III and Billary may be the so-called “frontrunners,” due to the name awareness and pre-campaign infrastructure, but the bloom is already coming off of those roses. Both will have a rocky road to the nomination. It’s not a guarantee for either one.

    #11491
    edselehr
    Participant

    Hillary has been the heir apparent for years, and the Democratic nomination is hers to lose – of not the presidency itself. Who the Republican contender will be is a bit murkier, though Jeb (by temperament, lineage and politics) is best positioned to give the Democrats a run for their money on the national stage. I don’t see another national caliber (competent) candidate in the GOP clown car at this point – most are figureheads for some right-wing special interest.

    #11492
    duxrule
    Participant

    Haven’t been checking the numbers lately, eh?

    As Her Numbers Plummet, Clinton Looks for Big Money from Big Donors

    “…Just two months ago, Hillary’s favorability rating in the CNN series was 53/44, a +9 result. It’s now 46/50, for a 13-point swing in the gap. Interestingly, the CNN series never had Hillary’s favorability in negative territory in the 2008 presidential race; the worst result she had was 49/44 in March 2007 but spent most of the campaign in double-digit positives while Gallup had her consistently in negative territory. Scoring this badly in CNN’s poll just four years after her September 2011 peak of 69/26 and eight months after a 59/38 last fall is a breathtaking decline, and shows just how significant this collapse is.

    All of her personal-quality measures have gone negative. Despite the graphic used by CNN, that includes “cares about people like you,” which is at 47/52, not 47/42 as their graphic in the video states. Last summer it stood at 53/45. Hillary’s negatives go to double digits on “honest and trustworthy,” 42/57, down from 50/49 this March and 56/43 in March 2014, a change of 28 points in 15 months.”

    http://hotair.com/archives/2015/06/02/wapoabc-cnn-polls-shows-hillarys-favorability-going-negative-already/

    If the “nomination is hers to lose,” it would appear that Billary has already started that process. I would contend that the “Heir Apparent” mantle is slipping.

    #11493
    edselehr
    Participant

    Lose to whom at this point, dux? I know you are no Hillary fan, but numbers go up and they go down, and you know better than anyone not to take too much stock in such things this early in the game.

    Bernie Sanders has energized the Dem base, and he’s drawing a lot of support away from Hillary right now. But I don’t think that even Sanders in his heart of hearts is seriously thinking he can win. But if he can pull the national Dem agenda leftward (and more power to him if he can) then he will have done his job.

    Seriously, as the field sits right now, who can beat Hillary?

    #11494
    Amus
    Participant

    Vox has a pretty good take on this;

    7 charts that explain why Hillary Clinton lost in 2008 — and why she’s winning in 2016

    http://www.vox.com/2015/2/20/8062125/hillary-clinton-lost-2008

    #11495
    duxrule
    Participant

    Sanders is picking up steam, and it seems to me that it’s in much the same way that Obama came out of the weeds in ’08. IMHO, there’s a lot going on under the surface, things that traditional polling may not pick up. Sanders or anyone else have a tough row to hoe, bu I don’t think that it’s automatic for Billary in any way, shape or form. The Hill-haters are already starting their banshee wails, and I’m pretty sure that people will be sick and tired of it within a year. Citzens aren’t eager for another 8 years of constant harangue, like we are ushering out with the eventual departure of Obama.

    #11497
    duxrule
    Participant

    @Amus: Interesting, but all of that data is based on the old way of doing things. Elections are different in this day and age.

    #11499
    edselehr
    Participant

    Oh, it’s not a cakewalk for Hillary by any means – she’s going to have to campaign just as hard as she ever has to go the distance. But we know she can do it, we know she can carry many purple parts of the country, and she has kind of a pseudo-incumbent advantage.

    After Dubya, I think the nation go a bit gun shy about electing governors, especially red state governors. That knocks out half the GOP opposition right there.

    #11500
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    I’ll be honest. I want Bernie. That means he’s the fantasy candidate. 🙂

    Clinton does need to do the work, and so far, she’s been building nicely going direct to the people, avoiding most of the noise and media. For now, that’s a really good move.

    I too see elections running differently now. Obama showed us all that with how OFA ran. Effective. That organization and how it worked was taught at some traditional Harvard event a few years back, so I expect anybody with any real opportunity to be employing similar means.

    Right now is about the time to kick off such an organization. It will need to be running before end of year. As we see those fire up, we will have a much better opportunity to see who does what.

    Both Clinton and Sanders have hired members of that winning team BTW.

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.