The economic fallout will be nothing like we’ve ever experienced

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  • #45297
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I know this is an unpopular opinion and I may be proven wrong, but here’s the deal. A statewide shutdown is the worst of any outcome we can imagine. Millions and millions will lose their jobs and business will go out of business with no hope of return.

    I’m all in favor of targeted shutdowns, but a one size fits all solution is NOT how to handle this. The upcoming DEPRESSION will outdo anything we’ve ever seen before. Think Dow 19000 sucks? Wait for Dow 1000. It’s on deck.

    Even worse, wait for the looting. It’s only a matter of time until people become desperate and will resort to such tactics given the shutdown and expected lack of resources, especially for the poorest places. It saddens me to predict this but these shutdowns will have consequences far beyond the virus itself. It’s going to get ugly in a few places.

    I personally believe the media and politicians are building this up way more than it should. Standard ole flu and gunshot deaths far out do deaths from the coronavirus. I get that might change. My biggest fear is not for the health of people but for the toll this new DEPRESSION will have a much more broad effect. This global shutdown is unprecedented.

    And lastly, the people clamoring for an all out lock down will be the very first ones bitching about losing their job and their housing. 2008 was a joyride compared to what is on tap moving forward.

    #45298
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    It is hard.

    Much of Italy said as much as you just did. And now their National Director of Health admitted they made a grave error. And if you know Italy at all, admitting fault, hubris, does not happen.

    Many older people, trending down to people in their 40’s are dying.

    The problem we have on this one is we got busted back to the old school basics. Best we have is some antivirals that can limit the disease impact in some people.

    Until we get a vaccine, limiting the spread is our best option, and all that really does is prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

    Honestly, the more aggressive actions may see them overwhelmed anyway.

    People or profit?

    Mother nature just put the question to us, up front and personal.

    I think “normal” what we knew two months ago is gone for a good long time.

    I pick people.

    Things, money, etc… can be lived without, remade, made differently, repurposed. We don’t need as much as we think we do.

    People cannot be replaced. I need my people more than I need tech, money, all of it.

    And it is OK to struggle. I have friends who are terrified for economic reasons.

    This is a good conversation. The world is having it, and will for some time.

    #45301
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Here is the other nasty bit that caught Italy way off guard. My current employment, lol so long as it lasts, involves people from Italy, and the hard hit region. The reports…

    I frankly, have a hard time talking about it.

    People are contagious for about 5 days prior to experiencing symptoms.

    So, young worker says, “fuck it, I will live” and does the work. (They are not wrong given the disease today, and assuming it does not mutate too much to change that)

    Gets it, comes home, gives it to his wife and kids, who go to see grannie, unaware.

    20 days later Grannie is dead, and if they are 40 years or older, wife and or hubby also are in the hospital, who knows where the kids go?

    The media may be hyping this some. What I also know is Italian media did not. “Bad flu, no real worries, Italy is strong.” A month later: “do not do what we did.”

    We do not have answers to that right now that do not involve very laborious and resource intensive biohazard protocols and equipment.

    The answers we do have do involve just slowing down.

    It sucks.

    Nothing like this has happened in my lifetime.

    #45303
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    And I am hearing a 20 to 25 percent overall shrink!

    I do not believe I understand what that means beyond Great Depression era type times.

    #45304
    lastday
    Participant

    For sure this is the biggest shitstorm in my lifetime. It could go on for months. We’re hardly a week into the lockdown and some people are losing it already.

    Look out for you and yours and those in your circle.

    #45305
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    No shit!

    That is the only sure thing we have right now.

    I am fortunate in that, at present, there is a lot of work I can do at home. That may change.

    We had a seriously rough flu beginning of the month. So we locked down early, before the big wave hit here. I also got real time info from Italy.

    So we prepped, pushed everyone out of the building and basically distributed the company. Everything can get done, still.

    Then the news hit. I have been home for almost a month. Full biohazard mode. Leaving shoes outside, wipe and spray down of anything incoming, and we have basic food stores and have been cooking basics. Nobody visits. I have a little one, and my wife who is higher risk, due to earlier health issues that cost us our home to resolve.

    (That is why I am all about health care policy)

    Friends who did not do those things are starting to report they may have it. Or we think they do. Nobody is sure. One is in hospital now. They are concerned. All the doctors are fried and this is just the first early weeks.

    For what it is worth, if it STARTS with:

    Runny nose, sore throat = rhinovirus (maybe the shits too)

    High fever, dry cough = a coronavirus (maybe not COVID 19)

    Stuffy head, wet cough, aches = influenzavirus

    Maybe that helps a few people gauge their risks, or see a signal to get care.

    A deep breath, hold for 10 seconds is also a quick triage in underdeveloped parts of the world. If that hurts, or they cannot do it, or they cough unavoidably, danger.

    #45306
    paulwalker
    Participant

    While I think a recession is realistic I don’t believe a depression is likely. The fundamental us economy is strong. This talk of looting and an economic collapse is unwarranted IMO. Take a deep breath everybody. This is not doomsday. However some tricky economic barriers are ahead.

    #45307
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    How do you propose people return to working?

    #45308
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Missing I hear you on that. I predict once this passes most will go back to work. The question is how long that may take, thus how long the recession will last.

    #45309
    missing_kskd
    Participant
    #45311
    washnotore
    Participant

    So long as our Executive, Legislative and Judaical Branches. Are in the firm grip of Republican Party. During the next four years. This nation of ours will have a long way to go with economic recover. It all starts with Civil Rights and Personal Liberties.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 5 days ago by washnotore.
    #45314
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Vitalogy is closer to being right than Paul. That is to say, this recession will be worse than the second Dubya recession. Way worse. Just short of a depression. A lot of what happens depends on two factors:

    1. How worse the pandemic gets while drumpf spends his last 10 months in office.

    2. Whether or not the Repuglycans hold their Senate majority.

    A recession is widespread economic decline that lasts for at least six months. A depression is a more severe decline that lasts for several years. For example, a recession lasts for 18 months, while the most recent depression lasted for a decade. There have been 33 recessions since 1854.

    Also, the economy doesn’t just spring back to normal as Paul seems to suggest. It ramps back up slowly. Folks need to reestablish their income and catch up on missed payments before they buy new cars and the dealers have to sell off all that unsold inventory they are going to be sitting on until they even think about calling in an order to a factory who also will be waiting for enough dealer demand to justify firing their huge expensive plants back up for a single shift, let alone getting back to 3 shifts.

    The damage is already done. It is going to get worse before it gets better. We don’t even know how to establish what the bottom is or when we will get there.

    Things are thin for a decade on my end, so I’m used to a very limited lifestyle. It won’t take a huge adjustment in my case. Those of you that eat at restaurants all the time, buy new clothes every season, buy entertainment access, go on vacations, etc. are in for a real surprise.

    The number of big industries now sitting idle should not be underestimated. It’s not just the auto industry that’s shut down. It’s damn near everything. The airlines are parking planes. The cruise industry is basically dead. Hollywood is closed. Media is going to be tumbling because no one is going to buy ads ‘cept MacDonalds. Gas may be cheap but no one is going anywhere. But fear not, the Republicans are willing to send you a small check to tide you over. Doesn’t it just make you want to reach down their throats and rip their lungs out?

    #45321
    Steve Naganuma
    Participant
    #45326
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    18,500 workers in OR filed for unemployment on Tuesday. That’s more than the biggest WEEK during the Great Recession.

    #45327
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Just saw a stat that 2.25 million Americans filed for unemployment this week alone.

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