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It’s challenging to put specific odds on any election—especially from months out. What’s more is that with Trump vs. Clinton the media coverage adds a certain amount of volatility to the analysis. Even so, it is always fun to get an early image on Trump’s general election chances—and that is easily done by considering how differently U.S. elections look today compared to years past.
The demographics of the United States are clearly becoming more diverse with minorities growing at the greatest rates, either by way of naturalization, the maturing of ethnic populations, and/or higher birth rates. While white Caucasians are still the majority, these numbers are shrinking and attitudes and values are shifting as Generation Xers and Millennials become a driving force in American politics. What’s more is that white Caucasians cannot be depended on to vote in one primary block. All of this spells bad news for Trump. The majority of political analysts agree that Trump has a serious demographic problem—and the numbers back this up.
Trump’s strategy of focusing his entire campaign on angry (and categorically older) white voters simply won’t work—and the 2012 results prove it. Sure, Republicans already win whites by huge margins. Romney actually carried white voters by 20 points in 2012, but he still lost! The reason for this is because Obama won over minority voters by even bigger margins.
“There is absolutely no reason minorities should prefer Clinton over Trump.”
Spoken like a true privileged white man.
There is absolutely no reason minorities should prefer Clinton over Trump.
Given that Trump is taking an approach similar to that of an insult comic, I don’t want to say, “at least he hasn’t alienated X yet” because there is a good chance that he will in the near future.
Trump loves minorities. That’s why in his early real estate career he worked to ban them from his buildings in New York and in turn wound up being sued by the DOJ.
That’s one example of legions on how much he lives minorities.
How unfair is it that these kinds of allegations have dogged Trump throughout his life>
Conspiracy!
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