The Beginning of the End for Bernie

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  • #18176
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I applaud Bernie for being who he is, and he’s had an amazing run so far, but today is the beginning of the end for his campaign. Hillary is the best bet for Democrats to win.

    As for the other side, it looks like it’s down to Rubio vs Trump. I don’t give Cruz any chance at all of winning the nomination. And I also look forward to the fight between Trump and Rubio. It will be ugly as hell.

    #18178
    Dxer1969
    Participant

    Darn! I really like and respect Bernie. Was hoping he would be Prez. But deep down, I know it will be Hillary too.

    Well, unless something really horrible happens. Like multiple terrorist attacks inside the US. Then, maybe Trump could win. I hope not though. Always enjoy your posts, Vitalogy!

    #18187
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Unlike Clinton, Bernie is supporter driven. He gets to run this for a while, and we are nowhere near an inflection point. Like Trump, nobody can tell him what to do.

    Super Tuesday may be a reasonable point to evaluate this.

    Right now, we are supposed to be evaluating our strongest candidate. That evaluation is no where near complete. We have plenty of time, and remember how long Clinton vs Obama ran.

    Didn’t do any harm at all.

    I’m in on Bernie. Basically, I’m voting for who Bernie would vote for and am happy to contribute as needed.

    #18189
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    The biggest problem Bernie has had is exactly what he has stated all along. If the American’s voted in droves, then he would be elected. American’s don’t vote. Most stay home. I like Oregon, as we make it much easier with vote by mail. But in some states, standing in line for hours, many people do not want to go through all of that. So they don’t vote. I feel if vote by mail was in all states, things may change. In some states, the GOP is in charge and they do not want liberals to vote. That is how they stay in power. So far, I don’t see that changing. Many people just do not vote. I am not even convinced the Dem’s will take back the Senate at this point.

    #18190
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    I agree with missing. It’s too early to call. The average of the main polling shows Hillary 5.6 points ahead with an average MoE of 4.8 points, so it’s premature to call this the beginning of the end.

    Having said that, though, Hillary remains the odds on favorite with an overall lead. However, over the last week Sanders closed the spread from ~14 points to 5.6.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

    On the stupid party side, Trump remains strongly in the lead and the GOP establishment concern is growing. Should they embrace Trump or Cruz? It is still quite possible that they will reject Trump and he will run as an independent, essentially handing the victory to the Democrats.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/us/politics/for-republicans-mounting-fears-of-lasting-split.html

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/262744-nightmare-scenario-for-establishment-trump-or-cruz

    #18191
    darth talon
    Participant

    As a Democrat. I won’t be casting my vote of Bernie Sanders or Hilary Clinton.

    On both sides of the fence. There’s nothing to vote for. Not one person, be it Democrat or Republican is worthy of my vote. It’s a turd sandwich vs. a giant douche.

    This is the first time in my life that when it comes to cast a vote for President. I’m voting “none of the above.”

    #18192
    paulwalker
    Participant

    darth, while I understand your sentiment, it is not productive. Sometimes we just need to swallow it and vote for the lesser of evils. This is nothing new in Presidential elections.

    As for Bernie, I think his appeal is very specific and will not go over in most States, perhaps excepting some NE States and Washington and Oregon. But he has virtually no chance of winning South Carolina Tuesday, and the media will declare him as a longshot, moreso than they have already.

    Further, if Bernie somehow gets nominated, it likely will be McGovern all over again, giving the GOP a decisive general win, provided Trump doesn’t go Indie.

    #18194
    skeptical
    Participant

    Darth, you’re taking the individuals too personally. Vote the direction you want the country to go. It really is a clear cut choice.

    #18197
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Dear Darth: Your vote DOES matter. All one has to do is look at the SCOTUS. You have 2 choices, A and B. Anybody that claims to not be happy with A or B needs to do a tie breaker and ask themselves this: Of either candidate I hate, which one will appoint a judge that you would be comfortable with? The choice couldn’t be more stark. Anyone that can’t make that simple pick should be institutionalized like Mike who only wanted a Pepsi.

    Getting back to the title of the thread, the math says all.

    #18198
    jr_tech
    Participant

    “Getting back to the title of the thread, the math says all”

    Would you be so kind as to demonstrate the method of statistical analysis that has led you to that conclusion?

    #18208
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Hillary leads Bernie 502-70 in the delegate count. 2383 delegates wins the nomination. Hillary will win SC, and then the next slew of voting will have up to 2000 delegates available, and most of those states tilt Hillary.

    #18240
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    Vit is correct. It’s just math.

    The media is for the most part not focusing upon that fact as it undermines the horse race dynamic they need for the 24 hour news cycle/eyeballs/web clicks.

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