Oregon primary a rebuke to Bernie Bots

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  • #46444
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Biden beat Bernie 67-20.

    Keep in mind in 2016 OR supported Bernie in the primary.

    Bernie Bot favorite for Sec of State Jamie McLeod-Skinner only got 27% of the vote where the other two candidates got 35% and 36%.

    Bernie Bots stock is falling like they own shares in the Cruise ship industry.

    A clear minority of voters in Oregon, which is a clearly progressive state.

    #46445
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Biden will either:

    drop out for health reasons

    win the nomination and lose the election

    I will hope for the former.

    There is no way Biden will win a Presidential election against Donald Trump. Despite the polls.

    #46446
    Brianl
    Participant

    Bernie was also still running when our primary came around in 2016. I’m not saying he would have won our primary if he was still in this time, but it would have been much more competitive.

    The fact that Bernie got 20% despite dropping out over a month ago should be making those of us who want anyone but Trump nervous.

    #46447
    lastday
    Participant

    I tend to agree with Paul, especially if the expected second COVID-19 wave manages to hold off until after the election.

    #46448
    semoochie
    Participant

    A vote for Trump is a vote for a monarchy! His latest felony is telling the states of Michigan and Nevada that they won’t get any aid unless they stop mail voting!

    #46450
    edselehr
    Participant

    lastday, if the second wave hits before that election, that will suppress turnout, which favors Republican candidates. I think a COVID lull prior to election day could actually boost turnout and favor a Biden win.

    #46452
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    For the record, I did not cast a Bernie vote in this primary.

    He is not running. Party opposition is fundemental and that’s that.

    For a time, I am going indie, labor class focused. That party choice to only entertain left social policy is unacceptable, and harmful. Won’t be a part of it.

    Now, yes Brian. I do not have a good feel for what the numbers are, but some fraction of that 20 percent is not having Biden.

    Here in Oregon, those numbers are low. In some rust belt places, it is much higher.

    #46453
    lastday
    Participant

    A significant COVID rebound before the election can arguably be pinned on that fool Trump. But he’ll turn it into someone else’s fault as he always does.

    #46454
    edselehr
    Participant

    Folks, we all have to remember that how we feel about Biden v. Bernie v. Trump is pretty irrelevant in our little Left Coast world. Where it matters is in the battleground states, and Trump at least seems to know that.

    He played the “I have stamina, my opponent doesn’t” card with Hillary, so I don’t think he’ll get as much traction again if he goes that route with Biden.

    Biden may not be liberal enough for us, but he might be just the right amount of liberal for people in the battleground states looking for a reason to not vote Trump.

    #46455
    Vitalogy
    Participant
    #46457
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    drumpf and the GOP already know that the larger the turnout, the smaller their chances of winning . . . anything. drumpf’s failure on COVID only adds to his list of disasters he’s mismanaged. Now he’s trying to pull the favorite of the GOP when they are losing in the polls, stifle the vote. It’s not going to work.

    The PEW Research guys have been predicting for over a year the largest turnout in election history.

    The largest voting block is the ‘get rid of trump’ contingent. It’s not associated with any party, and crosses every demographic and every age group. It’s called the nominally educated and keenly aware voting block.

    Do the math.

    It’s not about Joe. It’s about dumping the incumbent. Joe is going to be the nominee and be the beneficiary of all those votes driven by anti drumpf sentiment.

    Remember, drumpf is an incumbent with no record to run on. He hasn’t expanded his base, rather he thinks he can repeat 2016 by just catering to the morons of America and some of the wealthy. He’s behind in almost all of the key states electorally. The economy is in shambles and won’t be zooming back anytime soon.

    Do the math.

    drumpf’s popularity has never risen above the critical 50% approval mark.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    drumpf’s malfeasance on the pandemic has killed many thousands of the tens of thousands who perished. Those folks have families and those families vote.

    Do the math.

    I’ll take science over any doubter’s gut feel. Always.

    I know that often elections are popularity driven. I understand that but this time it’s different. The failure of anyone to see the backlash against drumpf as the most significant factor in the upcoming election is not doing a good job of accumulating information, filtering out the noise, and drawing a sane conclusion.

    Stupid + rich will not be able to overcome the informed + angry.

    Do the math.

    #46458
    Andrew
    Participant

    Yes, higher turnout is bad news for Republicans. That’s why Trump is now working so hard to block Vote by Mail in states like Michigan.

    If he can win all the other states he won in 2016 and hang on to Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin (just one is enough), he will win again.

    Pennsylvania already has vote by mail (passed it last fall), so Pennsylvania is probably gone for Trump already.

    If Michigan is able to move forward with it, then Michigan will probably go blue, too.

    Wisconsin is the big worry, because Republicans succeeded in turning it into a zombie state with a Democratic governor who has little power now. The Republican legislature and right-wing-appointed judiciary will work hard to block voting by mail and suppress the vote. Despite the primary win in Wisconsin recently for the Democrat for Supreme Court, that was not an election with much allure for Republicans so no big reason for them to turn out. The general election will be different.

    But if Biden can flip either Arizona, North Carolina, or Florida, and win PA and MI, he’s got it without Wisconsin. Biden would win in a landslide if the election were held today, based on several recent polls, but of course, the election is not being held today. We’ll see what the fall brings…

    #46464
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Arizona will go blue. Senator McCain kept them red but he is gone long enough to no longer be a factor.

    Florida is a crap shoot. The virus is hurting drumpf and the GOP downballot will also suffer there. It’s a big state with a lot of older folks who won’t be voting for drumpf a second time. It comes down to which way the Latino vote goes.

    North Carolina? I don’t think anyone can forecast that one. There are a lot of good ol’ boys living there. The economic picture there may be the most important factor.

    #46465
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I don’t trust FL, OH, NC, or AZ. I think MI and PA are going blue. WI is the key.

    #46471
    Andrew
    Participant

    Florida and Ohio went blue in 2008 and 2012. North Carolina went blue in 2008 also. That was a wave election year, when people were freaked out about the economic collapse. It doesn’t seem beyond reason that one of those states could flip back blue in 2020 the way things are going – could be another wave. Really depends how things are in the country by October.

    Arizona is trending blue the last few decades. Not sure if 2020 is the year it will flip, but it might.

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