January 19, 2020 at 11:36 pm #43826Randy_in_EugeneParticipantJanuary 20, 2020 at 12:17 am #43827
It doesn’t matter. And this endorsement is meaningless. Trump a shoe in for re-election due to the complete lack of a strong democratic candidate.January 20, 2020 at 3:14 pm #43830
Yeah, I”m guessing Trump will win at least 600 electoral votes the way he is going. That huge surge of voters who turned out in 2018 to give Democrats the House will probably just stay home in 2020.January 20, 2020 at 8:02 pm #43831Dan PackardKeymaster
So strange. We haven’t even hit the first Democratic primary yet and the New York Times is endorsing not one, but two candidates: Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar for President. I just don’t get it. Let the primary process do its magic. Then make an endorsement.January 20, 2020 at 10:19 pm #43835
Dan, we are at the same age and we probably have similar experiences growing up in the Northwest. My family was always moderately democratic…you know…Henry Jackson democrats. What I find so terrifying is the party has become so far left it will never create another Presidential winner. This is upsetting to me as I feel no power to correct it. So this is why I keep saying Trump will win again. But, to your point, we should perhaps play out the primary process before getting too deep into it.January 20, 2020 at 11:10 pm #43836
Hey Paul, do remember the phrase, “Dated Dean, Married Kerry?”January 20, 2020 at 11:28 pm #43837
No not really. Please explain. That is somewhat an abstract question.January 21, 2020 at 1:25 am #43839semoochieParticipant
It’s better to be a little bit left-leaning than to be a nazi! Did you happen to see today that Trump tried to get the law changed to where it’s OK to bribe a foreign country? Aside from how ghastly that is to hear, it tells me that he knows it’s illegal to do that!January 21, 2020 at 9:10 am #43842
Paul, leading up to the 2004 Iowa Caucuses, Howard Dean was heavily favored to win and leading in the polls. People liked what he had to say about health care especially (he’s a doctor). But as it got closer to the caucus date, the polls started to shift in favor of Kerry. Kerry of course won the nomination easily.
The phrase “Dated Dean, married Kerry” means people flirted with a kind of radical candidate (in 2004, Dean was kind of that year’s version of Bernie Sanders, even if he sames tame by today’s standards). But voters realized it was more important to beat Bush. (Kerry came closer than people remember to beating Bush – all came down to Ohio.)
It appears the same thing is happening this year with Joe Biden and lefty candidates like Warren and Sanders.
You say you worry about how far left the Democratic party has supposedly drifted…but Joe Biden is still the favorite to win the nomination. He’s even leading in three recent Iowa polls and leading in state polls in most states. Whether or not you think he can beat Trump, no one thinks he is a lefty.January 21, 2020 at 9:11 am #43843
Try googling the phrase “dated dean, married kerry” – I didn’t make it up.January 21, 2020 at 2:00 pm #43848
Ok Andrew…makes more sense than it did right before bed last night!January 21, 2020 at 3:53 pm #43850VitalogyParticipant
I wish I was as bullish as Andrew is. I can easily see a scenario where Trump loses by some 10 million votes but still wins the electoral vote.
WI, MI, and PA hold the keys to what will happen. I don’t believe Ohio or Florida will vote for any Dem nominated. And I put little stock in IA, GA, NC, or AZ to flip blue.
With the stock market and economy in general doing as well as it is right now it’s going to give Trump a lift even for people that don’t like him. It’s going to be tough for any Dem to overcome this.January 21, 2020 at 5:00 pm #43851
I’m not “bullish” on Trump being defeated. I don’t know if he will be or not. But I see no reason to give up hope on the 2020 election, either. Sure, I’m well aware that a strong economy historically gives any incumbent a lift. All of the Democratic candidates are imperfect in some way. But, we have a long way to go, and it’s hard to predict politics this far in advance. There are plenty of examples of things turning around in unexpected ways in politics in a short time – e.g. the idea in January 1992 that Bill Clinton would defeat George Bush that November – let alone win the Democratic nomination – was absurd.January 21, 2020 at 5:34 pm #43852Andy BrownParticipant
Come November voters will elect Democrats in all races in all states that are considered on the fence. If the trial proceeds in the manner Moscow Mitch wants, I believe that severe damage to the GOP is the likely outcome at election time.
Currently, Biden, Sanders and Warren all lead drumpf in Pennsylvania polling and Michigan polling. Wisconsin is mostly leaning blue. Florida will definitely not vote drumpf. Check the poll numbers, it’s not very close at all.
What Moscow Mitch is trying to pull off in the Senate is going to hurt the GOP across all states and all positions. Remember, since their disaster in 2018 the Republicans have lost ground in every special election since.
They are going to get hammered.
“Americans are clear that Trump is guilty of the charges enumerated in the articles of impeachment. Overall, 58 percent believe the abuse of power charge against him is true, while 57 percent believe he obstructed the House’s impeachment inquiry, with independents even more likely to believe both charges.
Americans also reject the kind of trial McConnell’s planning. Sixty-nine percent, including a plurality of Republicans, want a Senate trial to include testimony from new witnesses.
The public is demanding the whole truth. McConnell and company want to ignore, if not hide, as much of the truth as possible.
So, it’s no surprise that voters already express dissatisfaction with Republicans’ conduct of the inquiry. Americans disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling impeachment by a 15-point margin.
What’s the political translation of these numbers?
In short, the GOP is in trouble.
Trump’s approval rating, which is highly correlated with both his own electoral prospects and those of his co-partisans in the House and Senate, is on average, less than a point away from where it was going into the GOP disaster of 2018.
The generic congressional vote is within 2 points of where it was at the time of the Republicans’ 2018 debacle.”
Not to mention that a good portion of what drumpf is spewing forth these days has already been debunked with evidence and testimony that won’t get into the Senate trial but will get to the public.
There’s a lot of speculation, and misinformation, about what actually happened in Ukraine. Our campaign’s Rapid Response Director Andrew Bates has the facts.
Posted by Joe Biden on Tuesday, January 21, 2020January 21, 2020 at 5:44 pm #43853
I hope you’re right Andy – but I’m not confident at all of a Trump loss. But I certainly haven’t given up, and I think he is very vulnerable.
It’s really going to come down to two groups: independent swing voters and turn-out among the Democratic base. Those two groups both propelled the Democrats to the House in 2018, even when people thought the economy was doing well and Trump was out there very day riling up his base.
I think the Democrats can win over independents with the right message and a candidate who seems sane and not scary (Biden). I don’t know if he can drive home the right message.
The base might be more motivated by a more ideological candidate like Sanders or Warren – but I also think many of them in 2016 were quite complacent about Clinton winning. In states like PA where you have to wait in line to vote (no early voting, absentee voting only if you meet strict requirements), why bother waiting in line for hours to vote for Clinton if you figure she’s already going to win? Maybe people realize the stakes now after four years of Trump and know they can’t trust the polls. Maybe. People tend to vote out of fear and anger more than anything else. People sure were angry in 2018 when they voted Republicans out of the House. Less angry now?
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