Nothing to worry about

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  • #34852
    edselehr
    Participant

    Just like the incumbent advantage, the midterm advantage tilts against the party that holds the White House. That, along with the progressive energy that has welled up since 11/8/16, I’m thinking that at least one house of Congress flips.

    And Andrew, though the approval numbers are still strong with Republicans, I wonder how big is the remaining GOP? Are the same number self-identifying as did in 2016? I’m assuming that those who self-identify as Republican isn’t growing, and is most likely shrinking.

    #34853
    Andrew
    Participant

    I have no idea how soft the approval ratings are with Trump among Republicans. However, I suspect they are getting used to him – and they like tax cuts more than pretty much anything else. But I’m guessing.

    And in a general election, it’s similar to 2016 for Republican voters: can you tolerate the Democratic choice, or would you rather have Trump no matter who the Democrats nominate?

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone primary Trump in 2020. I’m just not sure how effective such a challenge will be. Incumbency carries a lot of weight. We’ll have to see what his approval rating is two years from now. I must admit, I’m quite surprised it’s still this high among Republicans in Gallup’s poll.

    Yes, there’s certainly a chance Congress will flip in November. But both houses are challenging this time for different reasons – the House because of gerrymandering, the Senate because Republicans have so few seats to defend this time around. It seems assured Democrats will pick up House seats and probably state legislative seats around the country – but enough to flip control of one/both houses of Congress?

    I still say: the next economic slump is coming sooner or later whether we like it or not. Democrats should hope it happens in early 2020, not in early 2021.

    #34856
    edselehr
    Participant

    I must admit, I’m quite surprised it’s still this high among Republicans in Gallup’s poll.

    Again, these percentage numbers make sense if thoughtful Republicans of conscience are peeling away from Republican self-identification, leaving only the die-hard Trump supporters as “Republicans”. But this also reduces their numbers…which reduces their electoral clout.

    It seems assured Democrats will pick up House seats and probably state legislative seats around the country – but enough to flip control of one/both houses of Congress?

    Probably about a 50/50 chance…and I’m going to choose to be optimistic. 🙂

    I still say: the next economic slump is coming sooner or later whether we like it or not. Democrats should hope it happens in early 2020, not in early 2021.

    True that.

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