New York predictions? Let's have 'em!

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 35 total)
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  • #19490
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    I’m really not going to join. We may be down 20 delegates. Had a nice Bernie party, and watched the results.

    Bernie didn’t give them much. 🙂

    The campaign will run through Philly. There are plans either way.

    The point on this is to go to the mat and attempt a win. That’s gonna happen.

    The greater point on this is to take the people money and movement and do stuff with it. That’s gonna happen too. I am as interested in that, and the discussion / planning in Philly, as I am the possibility of a reformer type President.

    I’m not going to vote a Republican, or no vote, or anything stupid.

    But, I’m also in on this Bernie thing as long as Bernie is, frankly. Like I said, it’s a campaign to live for. I’m making some great friends, being active, and movement building. (which is not a bad thing at all)

    Nite all. I’m a little buzzed!

    #19491
    skeptical
    Participant

    Looks like Silver called it almost spot on re: point spread Hillary v Bernie.

    Republicans? Don’t know, don’t care. 🙂

    #19496
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    The Sanders campaign and some of their supporters are starting to sound like Trump.

    Bernie and his proxies spent the last week and a half loudly rationalizing (really whining) why a New York loss didn’t matter, complaining about the rules, insinuating the process is somehow rigged, (funny how no-one says that when they’re winning, isn’t it?) and generally doing little to nothing to make a positive case to the voters of New York that Bernie should have their support during this DEMOCRATIC primary.

    Sorry for the caps, but it’s an important point. The fact that (an unknown number) of people who are now enthused about Senator Sanders failed to register as Democrats months ago is not Hillary Clinton’s or the DNC’s fault. It’s not a conspiracy.

    I’m personally just sick of the whole thing. He’s not going to be the nominee, it’s mathematically impossible at this point, and (some) of the attacks his campaign are lobbing at Hillary are both untrue and are doing nothing to help the cause of preventing Donald Trump or Ted Cruz from winning The White House. (God help us all.)

    It’s become childish.

    Support away; but you’re not helping anyone but the RNC at this point.

    #19504
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    I think congealing progressives into something with more teeth than the Progressive Caucus has is a worthy effort. Had this been done pre ACA, we may well be living with a reform far better matched to overall expectations than we currently are, for example.

    Just having the challenger to Wasserman Schultz in FL as an example of how things can work is meaningful to me. His race is one I will follow closely to better understand people money on a more local level.

    The money in this is compelling. It’s new money to the process as we know it today. Understanding how that can play out to improve party performance for people left out as of late is extremely important to me, and a lot of others.

    More on that later when some data comes in to support what I have to say.

    So far, the claims of non unity, damage to Clinton, etc… are overblown and not indicative of what will matter in the general. The worst case is an extended discussion to unify. No harm in that either.

    Some peeps are saying stuff. Yep. Happens. I’m not sure they mean anything and I am sure they aren’t contributing to the overall direction and planning going on.

    Sanders will not run a third party. He’s on record, and his future filings are all modified to be party compliant. Concerns of that kind are way overblown. The people spouting off about it, like Jill Stein, don’t mean anything at all.

    Whoever wins, and that is extremely likely to be Clinton, will be just fine.

    If anyone goes full bat shit it’s gonna be Trump. (Hope he does, because we win nicely in that scenario, and we win big.)

    People are cranky. There is no meaningful way to attempt some party and national reform without it happening. A greater focus and priority given to regular people is worth a little pain.

    You all watched the Princeton Study which correlates passive of legislation and will of the ordinary people same as me. If that balance can be changed some, it’s worth it. And the people are paying directly, same as the usual big players and have every reason in the world to expect returns in like kind.

    Truth is, the law of the land more or less requires we do it this way. Might as well see it play out. And again, I have a keen interest in understanding all of that. No data, no understanding.

    Future political campaigns may look very different, or different kinds of campaigns may be a lot more possible let than any of us would give credit for. I’m all for that being the case.

    TL;DR: Dems will live. Nothing done so far is anywhere near the risk and harm potential being framed right now.

    #19505
    paulwalker
    Participant

    There is no question it will be Hillary vs???. The drama is now on the GOP side As Trump enters a contested convention most likely.

    #19507
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Oh there is still a tiny question. We aren’t in a sure thing state for Clinton just yet.

    The Democracy is in progress. She is likely to win, but it is in progress.

    #19508
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Hillary’s nomination is 100%.

    #19509
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    The making of the democracy happen isn’t finished.

    Yes, agreed, she is very likely to win.

    She has not won yet. The door remains open.

    Finally, as I put here earlier, there are two paths the movement can take, and which one gets decided in Philly.

    It’s a hard line, I know. But the Sanders campaign is paying it’s own way. That means we do the whole primary before any decisions get made.

    New rules this year folks.

    #19523
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Very likely? As in she has to die to be not likely?

    I understand passion. Some call it anger, I call it passion. And I am passionate about passion.

    But I’m also a realist. Bernie has no way forward. It’s over. Why continue to fight? Does Bernie want to go down as the team that forcefully fouls the basketball team that’s up 12 points with 9 seconds left?

    #19535
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    Not to pile on, I say as I’m somewhat piling on, but Vit is correct.

    Bernie Sanders now has a 0.0% chance of being the Democratic nominee for the Presidency. It really is over. Anything stated to the contrary by Sanders supporters and proxies is a combination of denial, anger, and wishful thinking.

    The various scenarios the campaign has outlined for moving forward are, to put it kindly, fanciful to borderline ludicrous.

    I’ve said it before and shall say it one more time before abandoning this particular subject for the time being: Support away, but you’re now doing nothing save hurting the soon to be Democratic nominee and helping the RNC for the general. There’s no real facts that would support a contrary conclusion.

    #19544
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/22/sanders_returns_its_not_just_about_me_clinton_will_have_to_change_her_platform_to_earn_my_support.html

    Sanders and the vast majority of his donors and supporters stand ready to make the party strong and defeat the GOP.

    I don’t take a Trump presidency as a serious threat. Why?

    Because there is no reason at all why everyone can’t figure out a great party platform and go do what needs to get done.

    In a deal, if you can’t walk away, you end up with the worst possible. If you have something to deal with, that is leverage and currency. Both are most meaningful when combined with a no deal potential.

    There is a no deal potential here, and there is not a damn thing wrong with that.

    Clinton has actually mentioned courting Republicans if she has to in order to win. Lol. Like that will go over well and do us any real good.

    I’m not going to entertain fear and shame.

    The Sanders campain is a populist campaign. It is driven by poor party performance for ordinary people. There actually is poor party performance too. That is not posturing.

    Both campaigns will have a great case, delegates, though not enough to clinch, which leaves it all to the Supers, who will vote in Philly.

    In the loss scenario, Sanders will represent his voting bloc and make the case for party platform items and commits needed to bring the bloc on board. If successful, most of the bloc will come on board too.

    The divide and need is significant enough to warrant this kind of arrangement prior to going forward in the general election.

    If Trump wins, it will be due to the winner failing to rally and unify the coalitions and blocs involved. True for either possible winner.

    We did not see as much of this with Clinton and Obama. Part of that was all about both of them having a similar enough platform and both of them taking and planning on using party large donor money too. Clinton did not release her delegates prior to coming to whatever arrangement made sense as well.

    Sanders is going to play it a bit differently. He too will not release delegates and will make his pitch to the supers. He will also broker items needed for a unified party, as he is being paid to do. Unlike the others, Sanders has no large donors as leverage, leaving him free to advocate for his bloc.

    Given how he has run on a reformer type platform, and the very significant support he has, he isn’t and won’t be in a position to just campaign for Clinton. Way too many will step away.

    He is in a position to get necessary commits and then campaign on those for Clinton.

    Will be an interesting convention this year.

    The key in all of this is again, there being no reason for a Trump win. It’s not a real threat when both major blocs work together on a platform that includes ordinary people on a more just and equitable basis.

    If Trump wins, it’s sure as hell not on me, or anyone backing Sanders. It will be on the winner of the nom, whoever that is, failing to do the job we put them there to do.

    #19545
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    And hey, I want to vote a full Dem ticket, with the strongest Dem party I can get.

    That’s what this is all about. Better alignment with the people = more overall turnout and support = a better and bigger win for us.

    #26837
    nosignalallnoise
    Participant

    Looks like my prediction was wrong. WBAI’s still somehow on the air and Pacifica affiliated. But there’s still THIS year to get through!

    #26847
    Alfredo_T
    Participant

    Pacifica radio stations have been hubs for drama for many, many years, yet they manage to plod through. KPFT, Houston had its transmitter site bombed twice by the KKK the year that they signed on, for instance.

    #43245
    nosignalallnoise
    Participant

    Now let’s jump forwards about four years, it’s now 2019 November 12. Just posting this for the record. As of last month it would appear the prediction about WBAI I made in April 2016, earlier in this thread, is now starting to come true.

    As long as they continue transmitting from the (very expensive) Empire State Building they’ll keep sliding down the financial abyss they’re in until my 2016 prediction becomes reality in its entirety. I guess we’ll see what goes down come January 2020.

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