My GOP nominee prediction

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  • #15510
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    November 18, 2015 I hearby swear that I now believe that Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination. I’ve spoken against his chances in the past and I now am willing to say I was wrong. The Donald is in for the long haul, he’s got unlimited money, and he appeals to the dipshit base of the GOP that ends up choosing their nominee. Here are the reasons I have come to this conclusion:

    Jeb Bush has the last name Bush, plus, he’s kind of a pussy. Or a nerd. Or whatever. He has zero chance of advancing even with his money and backers. Not bat shit nuts enough!

    Marco Rubio is an early 40 year old with a terrible record for voting in the Senate, and probably an even worse credit score. I say run this guy’s credit. I’ll bet it’s in the 500’s. He probably couldn’t even qualify for a mortgage. A credit score of at least 700 should be a requirement, otherwise if you can’t handle our own bills, you think you should be Prez?

    Ted Cruz: I predict he’s going to have a following, but he’s too extreme, even for the uneducated voters.

    Ben Carson: What can I say? He’s the Herman Cain of the 2016 field. Out of his league in all and every manner. Doctors are really smart in certain things, and borderline autistic/downs in many other aspects of regular life. I say run his credit too. I’ll be he’s below 500.

    I think these are the guys that will be in the final round. As much as I think Trump is a douche of epic proportions, it’s clear to me he is the “teflon” man of the GOP and he will win. Time will tell and I look forward to being proved wrong.

    #15511
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    And whomever is the GOP nominee will enjoy a 2008 like electoral college vote.

    #15533
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    You may prove yourself right on this one. A few of us were talking about the Donald the other day. Work got done, and we had a bit of chatter time, and the GOP clown posse is a favorite subject right now.

    We thought it interesting that everyone in the group knows a “crazy uncle liberty” type, who is all in on Trump. Seriously all in. Like the Tea Partiers were all in, and it’s most of the same people.

    About the only way to get Trump out is to either:

    – post up somebody who dominates him. He would bag on the race, if that were to happen,

    – convince him it’s not worth it. Like the “Hey Donald, let’s talk…” approach, perhaps done by some political heavies in our Government,

    – GOP tells the truth. Like that will ever happen!

    The guy has no shame, and his ego is the size of a planet! Given he’s on this one, he’s golden. Well covered. No worries. And he’s not lying. Trump doesn’t know much, and we all know that, but Trump also really does believe he really can make it better for everyone, and he really does want to do that.

    Attacks on that basis, shame and lies won’t really work on Trump. He is making mistakes, and he will change his mind as he tries to maximize his chances, but he’s not lying with intent to deceive people. Where he does lie, it’s benign and something one could lump into sales and media 101. It’s just framing, positioning, etc…

    Another very interesting artifact of all that is Trump has NO PROBLEM saying things the GOP would never say! He crosses those, “there is no past, Bush was never President, there is no shit in our hair” lines! And of course he does! His basic pitch is he will honestly attempt to make it better, and he can cite the inside baseball, money in politics, many set pieces as the reason he’s got value as President.

    All of that adds up to the GOP has to either come to Jesus on some things they have done and said, or rally behind Trump and go for it. The GOP is going to have to use truth, facts –in other words, make a rational case against Trump to do any real good! And that’s a case for Democrats, who will pounce on that and ask a whole lot of painful questions.

    #15553
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    I’ll readily admit I thought Donald Trump would have already peaked and/or self-destructed by this point. His polling sustainability is equal parts hilarious and alarming.

    Apparently there are no real limits to the depths of ignorance the base of the GOP will not reward. Donald Trump speaks in word-soup nonsense, apparently has at best a surface understanding of a myriad of complex issues, displays vast reservoirs of willful ignorance upon a wide array of topics, has a long standing pattern of engaging in both racist and misogynistic speech, is comically narcissistic while being famously thin skinned, and utilizes both fear and ignorance as tools of demagoguery. He’s like a cartoon character of an African strongman; up to and including the highly questionable fashion, decorating, and esthetic choices that tend to focus on self-portraits and precious metals.

    It would be hard to imagine someone less appropriate and less qualified (and less serious) for The Presidency than Donald Trump. Enter stage right, Ben Carson!
    Ben makes Donald look positively Aristotelian in comparison. Put succinctly, Ben is a nut. He believes a wide array of things that can easily be proven as not true. To say nothing of his unhinged apocalyptic theologizing. Ben Carson should be running for the leadership position at a religious cult somewhere in Kansas; not for the Presidency. Sidebar: I think he’s actually running for a book tour or a speaking engagement on Fox, but that’s another column.

    And those are the two front runners for the Republican nomination for President. Yikes. A couple of quick bulletin points/predictions of my own:

    * Dr. Ben Carson is not going to make it. I could go into great detail why/how he’ll fall out, but let it suffice to say that I think his complete lack of knowledge on almost any subject you can imagine coupled with this really nutty belief systems (and media scrutiny) are going to prove far too much for even the majority of Republican base voters. Donald Trump is an idiot, but he says things that sound (in the words of Stephen Colbert) “truthy”. And he says them with great authority, volume, and aplomb. Dr. Ben Carson just sounds like a soft spoken, almost mumbling really, loon.

    *Donald Trump’s issues are well documented and his downfall is more difficult to predict. However, I still don’t think he’s going to end up being the guy on the GOP side. Donald is already losing the shadow primary, (I.e. money and the Republican establishment forces that are going to do everything in their power to stop him from becoming the nominee. Because, he’d lose to Hillary Clinton by eight or nine points and get crushed in the electoral college.) and his evangelizing is both completely insincere and totally opportunistic. I still think it’s going to catch up with him. Did you catch that rambling, angry, incoherent, speech in Iowa he gave last week? The one where he called the voters of Iowa stupid? Hey, look, they are. Granted. But you don’t say that, Donald.

    So, if it’s not Donald Trump and Ben Carson, who will it be? Consider the following. In every GOP presidential election primary in the past two decades the parties well documented warring halves end up aligning behind an establishment candidate and an outsider/insurgent during the primaries. And in every election they eventually end up running the establishment candidate. In my opinion, the two people best placed to fulfill those two roles are:

    Marco Rubio, the establishment choice. And Ted Cruz, the outsider/insurgent.

    Rubio is the only, even semi normal/semi reasonable candidate left in the entire field that would have a prayer of facing Hillary Clinton in the general. Walker is gone. Perry is gone. Christie is going to be gone. Kasich is going to be gone. Bush is over though he doesn’t seem to know it, yet. Ditto Rand Paul, etc. Rubio is a Frankenstein’s monster hybrid of establishment, corporatist Republican politics and Tea Party nuttery, but in theory should be capable of navigating the circus clown show of the Republican primaries reasonably intact and then (in the famous words of Mitt Romney’s former top campaign official) “pivot” into something less frightening for the general. I’m sure the powers that be also think his Hispanic heritage and being from Florida would be a boon when looking at the electoral map. (I’ve seen polling that has Hillary thumping Rubio even in Florida, but whatever.)

    Cruz is the candidate in the best position to pick up *all* of Donald Trump’s and Ben Carson’s supporters once they finally collapse. He’s a Tea Party zealot, far to the right of the far right, an evangelical, espouses all of the “right” positions, and is committed to gridlock. He won’t work with anyone in Washington now. He’s a committed adversary to compromise and is loathed by his entire caucus including virtually every Republican in the U.S. Senate. Which of course makes him even more popular with the base. He’s Donald Trump and Ben Carson combined; but able to put complete sentences together, sounding both reasonably informed and intelligent, while still feeding nothing but red meat to the base. But…he looks and sounds like a weasel. He’s smarmy sounding and unpleasant. I don’t see it playing out in his favor at the end of the day.

    If the past is prologue, the eventual Republican nominee for President will be Marco Rubio. That’s my prediction. November 19, 2015.

    And, yes, he will lose to Hillary Clinton.

    #15554
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    I pretty much agree, as Trump has unlimited funds and will not run out of money, but with the GOP pick him to run against Hillary? I early on thought that Bush would win out, but he is not like his father or brother. Probably a nice guy, but not to lead the country.

    #15555
    Brianl
    Participant

    Jeb is much closer to his father than his brother politically, but as Lurking said, put a fork in him. He’s done.

    #15559
    Amus
    Participant

    I came out early and said Trump would NOT be the nominee.

    It’s a testament to just how broken the GOP is that he’s still in the running.

    #15560
    Alfredo_T
    Participant

    I am somewhat surprised that Trump’s campaign was not sunk by his remarks wherein he implied that he knew hardship because he once had to borrow a million Dollars from his father in order to launch his investment ventures. I did not expect that his campaign would make it this far. I think that the continued success of his campaign, in spite of some of his public remarks and policy positions is more telling of American culture. I see the success of the Trump campaign as proof that in American culture, it is assumed that people who have money must be right.

    Why would people care what Bill Gates thinks about subjects not related to business management or computer science? Why do people care what famous movie actors think about subjects outside of the film industry? Why do people care what famous musicians think about subjects not related to music?

    #15564
    paulwalker
    Participant

    I think most of these responses are on the mark. However, Rubio stands out to me who could challenge Hillary. Yes, he is young, and Yes, his financials are not great, but why should that disqualify anyone? BTW, Rubio is now 44, older than when JFK entered office in 1961 for those scoring at home.

    #15565
    edselehr
    Participant

    Lurking eloquently beat me to the same conclusion I had; Rubio should be the last man standing on the Republican side. Carson and Trump are jokes waiting for their punch lines to be delivered. And most of the Republican field is on life support – except Rubio and Cruz. And both have enough Tea Party cred to pull in the Koch-type dollars they need to go the distance.

    Caveat: I’m not ready to write Bush off just yet. I think he is the one candidate that isn’t so oblivious to his own bullshit that he won’t make any necessary changes to fix his campaign (this obliviousness sunk Walker). I’m not saying Bush is capable of making the changes needed to fix his campaign, but he’ll at least try to do something about it.

    #15566
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Rubio is the best choice for the GOP, pure and simple. He is articulate, good-looking, is cuban-american, and the younger candidate. My predicition he will face off with Hillary in 2016. (Unless Biden changes his mind, which I have not completely ruled out).

    #15581
    warner
    Participant

    I agree with paulwalker, except for the “articulate” part. Rubio will be the nominee. Unless someone who hasn’t been campaigning is drafted at the convention. (Remember those?)

    #15582
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I’m underwhelmed by Rubio.

    #15583
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    I don’t find Marco Rubio particularly impressive (or politically formidable in regards to a general election) for a wide array of reasons. Should anyone care to inquire, I’d be happy to elucidate.

    For all of the various reasons outlined earlier I still think he’s likely to be the beneficiary of the rest of the establishment field’s implosion and end up the GOP nominee, though.

    I’d find Cruz utterly hilarious in that role and his nomination would guarantee a Democratic electoral wave of tsunami like proportions that would likely have deleterious effect upon the entire GOP card down ballot, but I don’t think the Democrats will end up being quite that lucky.

    And semi related and with all due respect to Paul Walker, Joe Biden is not running for President. You can rule it out. For certain.

    #15586
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    I can not recall a national election primary season where either of the major parties were in a state even vaguely resembling the amount of disarray in the field. Really.

    Now I admit I’m still getting used to the new real clear website, but using this info http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html it appears that there is really no clear leader, but there are some folks that definitely have no momentum.

    Having read what y’all have to say, I can only opine that it’s way too early under the current circumstance to predict anything about the stupid party nominee. I do anticipate some real or made up watershed event that will shake up all these numbers. I will predict that said event might happen sometime in the next 4 months, but not necessarily before the Iowa caucuses.

    Having said that, I feel Trump can’t win the nomination because he’s not a conservative, has not and will not spend his own money to finance his campaign (making his wealth a moot point, after all to date he is powered mostly by free press, not any major personal investment), PAC money will only go so far especially since his campaign lacks any serious campaign infrastructure, is ignorant to foreign affairs and too dependent on character assassination rhetoric of his opponents. The campaign is just really getting serious and media scrutiny is ramping up (see previous paragraph).
    I think Trump’s polling numbers only underscore the limitations of polling so far before anyone really has to make a decision of whom to vote for.

    Carson is another example of the outsider phenomenon, but in spite of his (and Trumps) numbers at the present time, their share of all polls when added together is still less than 50% of the GOP sample being used. That means half of the Republicans in the poll reject both of them. When the field trims down, that half of the GOP will exceed those still in the Trump or Carson camp.

    I also feel that while Rubio has a shot, Cruz does not. Although Bush’s numbers are small now, he is not that far behind and actually led the field as recently as July (see the link above).

    Frankly, I don’t see any way the GOP can win The White House with any of these people. The only way for the GOP to overcome the Blue electoral votes would be with a candidate that was already in the party drivers seat, one with universal appeal to conservatives and moderate Republicans (probably impossible these days) and the ability to win over Independent voters. Independents may soon outnumber Republicans, although only a small percentage of Independents are truly “independent” – ideologically centrist and unaffiliated with either political party. While it is too early to call it a done deal, the real horserace is in The Senate where the races in Hew Hampshire, Florida and Nevada may determine if the GOP can retain control of the Senate.

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