My election predictions

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  • #23015

    “Secondly, I want to point out that not only is the chance of Trump winning infinitesimally small, the chance of him helping to overturn Roe vs. Wade if he does win is even smaller.”

    A 30% chance is “infinitesimally small”?

    However, overturning Roe v Wade during his term might fit into that category. That will be a long haul. What would be better is if we all just respected life at all stages.

    Re: The Senate

    I can understand why it might seem like a pipe dream to predict a Trump victory since the numbers aren’t there, but I think they’re moving in that direction.

    But the Senate is a different story. The Real Clear Politics page is predicting 51 Republican Senators in their “no toss up” category. I said 52 since it’s very close in PA and I think with the help of Koch dollars, Toomey will win.

    It’s more of a pipe dream to be confident that Democrats will take over the Senate than that Republicans will maintain control.

    #23050
    Herb
    Spectator

    Prattle on, leftists.

    The only poll that matters is the one in November.

    Buh bye, Barry.

    #23052
    Alfredo_T
    Participant

    For once, Herb and I agree on something!

    #23054
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Hi Herb. Gosh, this election cycle has pretty much quashed your presence here. Could it be that although you can celebrate the final days of Obama’s presidency I can’t help but think how disappointed you must be about the drumpf nomination and candidacy and the absolute horrible odds against his winning. The electoral grid map is stacked against the Republicans as are their chances to retain the Senate.

    Wishing you the best as you prepare to see your precious GOP choices go down in flames.

    #23057

    The odds against his winning are 2:1.

    There’s not much chance of the Republicans going below 51 Senators.

    #23058

    To be more precise, the odds of a Trump victory, according to the Real Clear Politics betting odds, are today at 34%.

    One month ago they were at 20%.

    Nate Silver says 39%. (A month ago he said 11%).
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    #23062
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Hillary took a month off campaigning. Let’s look at all the numbers after about three more weeks when both candidates are filling the main stream news with content. That’s what sways telephone polls.

    As far as the electoral vote, it is not so easy to break down the big blue wall. The election isn’t being held today and much of what polls give us is exactly that: If the election were held today . . .

    So, Vernon, if we added up the state of the polling on every day since the campaign started, Clinton has led nationally in polling, electorally in projected votes, in Vegas (where she still is the safe bet and drumpf is the long shot) and in the swing states on more days then drumpf has.

    Feel free to post every poll or story that shines light on your preferences, it doesn’t change the real state of the race. My guess is that the drumpf bump is because Hillary took August off. Nothing more and certainly not that significant. The media keeps filling you full of fantasy election statistics because they want you to keep watching/listening/reading their stories.

    Cooler wiser heads always prevail and that does not describe drumpf at all. He’s a hotheaded bigot who has prayed on the poor and middle class all his life. Come election day, the turnout will be huge and that is not a good thing for the G.O.P. There are a lot more Democrats out there by far.

    #23063
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Obama’s approval rating is at 58%.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/12/barack-obamas-soaring-approval-numbers-are-very-good-news-for-hillary-clinton/

    Hillary will be Obama 3.0, just not as black.

    And, kiss the SCOTUS goodbye as well.

    #23064
    radiodork
    Spectator
    #23065
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Fantasy.

    #23067
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    With the race tightening, I wonder if Trump could be elected? I never thought so in the beginning, but his supporters do not care what he says. They just want change. They do not care how it is done. Back in 1933 another group of people wanted change, the German’s…They got their change…and we know how that went…..

    #23955
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I stand by my predictions for EV and the Senate.

    But, I upgrade my hope for the House. I think the down ballot effect will put the House in play.

    PS. I can’t wait for the Senate to abolish the filibuster. It’s going to happen. And then the court stacking starts in full earnest!!!

    #23961

    You stood by your mid-term predictions. How did that work out?

    #23963
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Better than your predictions assface.

    #23966

    I nailed it in the midterms.

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