My election predictions

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  • #22848
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    President: Hillary will take 347 Electoral Votes and win by a margin of 6% in the popular vote.

    Senate: Dems gain a 51-49 advantage.

    House: GOP loses seats, but keeps a 10 seat majority. Dems nationally collect more House votes due to gerrymandering of districts.

    I also predict the Senate will try to push Garland through to the SCOTUS. I hope Dems block that so they can nominate a younger, more liberal judge.

    #22858
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Using the online interactive electoral maps (I like CNN’s the best), the writing is on the wall.

    If Clinton only picks up Colorado and Pennsylvania, she would win. Meaning that Trump would have to win every other swing state to have a chance.

    #22860
    Alfredo_T
    Participant

    According to The New York Times, Clinton has an 86% chance of winning the Presidency. The results they present are the aggregation of several different polls. See http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html
    They are also have a running trend; although the race has gotten close at some points, not once has Trump been ahead of Clinton.

    #22883

    I’m staying with my previous prediction that Trump will prevail. It’s very difficult for a party to hold the White House for three consecutive terms, Hillary is a weak candidate, and Brexit is precursor to a rejection of the status quo in our nation.

    There are now two polls which include all four candidates that have Trump in the lead. Hillary’s lead has shrunk to almost a tie or worse, depending upon the poll.

    Trump is beginning to look presidential. Hillary is looking more and more corrupt and/or incapable. How could she not know that a “C” was not “paragraph C” but meant “classified”? I don’t see how playing the dumb card is to her advantage except that dumb is probably better than being a crook.

    Anyway, I predict Trump wins and the Republicans hold the House and Senate.

    Note: I think it’s possible Trump is being under-polled as were the Republicans in the mid-terms. There could be an unitentional bias as there was then, but the polls could also be skewed by the “Bradley Effect.” Also I think there is a big enthusiasm gap and turnout will favor Trump.

    #22885
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    LOL. Such a long time to go and those 3rd party losers will fall back to the 2-3% of the vote.

    Your predictions aren’t really predictions. They’re your hopes. And your hopes won’t come true no matter how much you pray and abstain from masturbation.

    #22893
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    “He’s being under polled”.

    Yes, that must be it. LMAO.

    #22894

    The RCP 4-way poll average dropped a little again today. Hillary is up by just 2.1 and that includes some older polls that are very favorable to her.

    Sure I’m predicting my hopes but my hopes align with a trend and with what I see taking shape.

    BTW, “abstaining from masturbation” is about as difficult as refraining from kissing a mirror. Otherwise, you’re right, I AM praying about this, and I am happy to see there seems to be some good Catholic support for Trump. Maybe Catholics will get it right for a change. Catholics4Trump came through with some proof that Trump did not mock that reporter’s disability as was misprepresented by the liberal press.

    #22895
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    It’s a fact Trump made fun of that reporter. It’s on video for fuck’s sake.

    #22897
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    “there seems to be some good Catholic support for Trump”

    Not really. Just another figment in your party line bubble universe.

    According to a recent report by Pew, Trump’s doing terribly with Catholic voters, particularly those who are regular churchgoers.

    Catholics who attend Mass weekly have increased their support for the Democratic nominee by 22 percentage points relative to 2012. They support Hillary Clinton at about the same rate as fallen-away Catholics; even though among white, non-Hispanic Catholics, those who attend Mass less frequently are slightly more likely to be registered Democrats.

    In fact, Trump has done more to drive weekly churchgoers to the Democrats than Clinton has done to attract them. Evangelicals and Catholics who attend church regularly and favor the Democratic nominee consider Clinton a less appealing choice than Obama was.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-driving-catholic-voters-toward-clinton/

    Inserting himself into the Republican presidential race last February, Pope Francis suggested that Donald J. Trump “is not Christian” because of the harshness of his campaign promises to deport more immigrants and force Mexico to pay for a wall along the border.

    “A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian,” Francis said when a reporter asked him about Mr. Trump on the papal airliner as he returned to Rome after his six-day visit to Mexico.

    #22898
    Amus
    Participant

    Big Whoop!
    Arguing over a slice of an archaic, dying irrelevant cult.

    #22991

    Win or lose the presidency, Republicans will hang onto the Senate. I don’t see why there is any optimism for Democrats taking control.

    I made a very careless prediction a couple of months ago about the Senate. I hadn’t really looked at the individual races, and predicted a gain for the Republicans which is fantasy.

    But they aren’t going to lose it. I think Toomey will hang on in PA and whoever is elected President, the Republicans will end up with 52 Senators.

    #22992

    “It’s a fact Trump made fun of that reporter.”

    It’s a fact that he was mocking him for his impertinence in the same manner he mocked some other people, but he was not making fun of his disability.

    You’ll find the truth about it here:
    https://www.catholics4trump.com/

    “The reaction to Catholics 4 Trump from the left has been humorous as well as ironic. The one complaint we hear most often from non-Catholic liberals is that, “You Catholics must listen to your pope! He said Trump was not a Christian and you can’t vote for him.” First, progressive “separation of Church and state” non-Catholics lecturing Catholics that they must listen to a pope tell them how to vote is rich. Second, approximately zero of these people actually read what Pope Francis said on the matter, much less the later clarification from Fr. Lombardi at the Vatican Press Office.”

    http://www.catholcis4trump.com

    “Arguing over a slice of an archaic, dying irrelevant cult.”

    There are more than 1.2 BILLION Catholics in the world. The beliefs of 1.2 billion people is irrelevant? There were 291 million Catholics in 1910. The number of Catholics quadrupled in 100 years. Reports of the death of Catholicism are greatly exaggerated.

    #22995
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Keep drinkin’ that right wing kool aid, Vern. But you should probably save some of it to wash down all the crow you will be eating in November.

    There’s a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats in the Senate according to one model.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-78-percent-chance-50-senate-seats_us_57b8a525e4b0b51733a3cda0

    Yes, it’s a lot closer then say for example how badly drumpf is going to lose, but in light of the fact that you never understood physics and especially mechanics, the momentum of Clinton’s huge upcoming victory coupled with the fact that there are way more seats up for reelection on the GOP side makes your pipe dream all the more ludicrous.

    #23001
    Alfredo_T
    Participant

    Have you started shopping around for airplane tickets to any of the following places?

    • Vatican City
    • Malta
    • Dominican Republic
    • El Salvador
    • Nicaragua
    • Chile

    First of all, I list these places because they are the only ones in the world where abortion is illegal. Secondly, I want to point out that not only is the chance of Trump winning infinitesimally small, the chance of him helping to overturn Roe vs. Wade if he does win is even smaller.

    #23004
    Amus
    Participant

    Thanks for that info Alfredo.
    I was curious so I looked some of them up and found the following;

    Nicaragua
    A report on the effects was filed by the Human Rights Watch in October 2007. Human Rights Watch reports the deaths of at least eighty Nicaraguan women in the eleven months following the ban.
    To compile the report, interviews were conducted with health officials, women in need of health services, doctors in public health, doctors in the private healthcare system, and family members of women who died as a result of the ban.

    An unintended side effect has been a ‘chilling” of other forms of obstetrical care for women.
    The report states, “While no doctors have been prosecuted for the crime of abortion, as far as we know, the mere possibility of facing criminal charges for providing lifesaving health services has had a deadly effect… the Health Ministry does not monitor the full implementation of the protocols, does not systematize complaints received for the delay or denial of care, and so far has not studied the impact of the law on the lives and health of women.”

    The report quotes an obstetrician as saying “since the law was signed, [public hospitals] don’t treat any hemorrhaging, not even post-menopausal hemorrhaging.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Nicaragua

    El Salvador
    Unsafe abortion is a serious public health problem and the second direct cause of maternal mortality in El Salvador.
    In 1994, the third-most-prevalent cause of mortality among adolescent girls was pregnancy and postpartum complications.
    Some of the girls arrested for trying to have abortions are as young as ten.
    It’s a drain on resources in a country where health care expenditures in 1997 were $24 per person per year.

    The criminalization of abortion has extremely serious consequences for women’s lives and health: abortions performed under dangerous conditions; high mortality and morbidity rates; and a lack of reliable studies that could help health services provide better care to their clients, including women who have had abortions in unsafe conditions.

    This situation is further exacerbated by the persecution of women by the Salvadoran justice and health systems.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_El_Salvador

    Dominican Republic
    A common abortion method is to take over-the-counter pills that cause powerful uterine contractions, leading to the expulsion of the fetus.

    Drugs used include oxytocins, prostaglandins, or ergot alkaloids.

    Women take the pills without knowing the proper dosage, and an overdose can cause serious hemorrhaging.

    Poor women suffering from hemorrhages go to inexpensive and low-quality clinics. The uterus may be incompletely cleaned out, leading to infection, or even perforated, causing internal bleeding.

    If a woman survives such complications, she may have reproductive problems in the future.

    Researchers have found that 95% – 97% of the abortions are unsafe, meaning done by people lacking needed skills or in places that don’t meet minimal medical standards.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_Dominican_Republic

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