March 19, 2016 at 9:55 pm #18838
It’s never too late Paul. We’ve got an awful big, friendly tent here on the left.
You are among friends man.
If Hill doesn’t get indicted on that damn server, I think she’s a lock, but I’m still going all out for Bernie. Frankly, a nice, progressive, young, movement will arise out of that, and it’s nothing but good as far as I’m concerned. Worth it.
And for the next few days, he’s got a legit shot! I’m gonna enjoy them.
The GOP is nuts! There is talk of a spoiled election to throw the decision to the House! I guess this actually did happen in the 1800’s, and it was not pretty. The only other notably corrupt election is 2000. That tells you something right there.
Truth is, they have no legit answer to Trump. And they built that too. I would continue laughing my ass off, but they’ve done such a great job of it. Trump is a total worry. I’m not sure he has a realistic chance at a win, but I am damn sure he’s going to take what was the Tea Party (and we thought that was ugly sauce) and turn it into something very seriously ugly. No good will come from any of that shit.
@Paul: We might need you brother. No joke!March 19, 2016 at 10:01 pm #18839Chris_TaylorParticipant
Luvin’ your enthusiasm.March 19, 2016 at 10:05 pm #18840
I’ve never seen anything like it Chris! Under 30 is bonzo for Bernie!
And they are targeting establishment politics big. I think they are right about it too.
Not sure they will garner the will and votes to get power this time around, but they are absolutely gonna get heard.
Bernie has the largest on the ground campaign ever! His own staff is easily bigger than the one Obama assembled, and is complimented by a self-organizing set of groups all operating on the Internet, with Reddit of all places as command central. Organized as fuck, and doing stuff. Real stuff!
And Bernie raised legit, competitive money on individual donations. We’ve not seen that happen either. 6 million individual donations, spread over 2+ million people, totaling 160 Million by now. A ton of those are recurring, or monthly / event driven. A Bernie fundraiser consists of an ask during one of his speeches. That’s it. Works. Amazing.
This means our money in politics problem might not be the doom everyone says it is. (and I say it is, for the record) There exists the potential for a motivated fraction of Americans to pay up for more and better representation. That’s real now. It was fantasy just a short while ago.
I have to toss in with that. It’s what progressives live for, and I admitted that to myself a long time ago. Gotta put up or shut up really. My own fault, but I’m not bitching. 🙂
For me personally, the message is the right one, as is the person. Bernie is great. Always has been. No problems on that front. But, I want to get the metrics on what happens, how, people, money, etc… We may find out people still do trump money, despite Citizens United. Bernie taking it old school may well be schooling the lot of us on how this can be done. Well, that and his “kids” who are definitely schooling everyone right now. Lots of innovation on how to reach people, happening in real time.
Edit: I’m having fun. And that has been a while. Like I said, worth it. How often can one really say that?
The cool part is the movement becoming self-aware. Part of it is the prospect of Bernie not getting the win. Everyone knows it’s a tough haul, underdog thing. And that’s fine. When you are on the underdog team, there is only one move: balls out and come what may.
This is what they are doing, and I find that beautiful.
But, that also comes with, “what next?” and as they begin to ask that question, they are realizing they are something in terms of both size and message. Again, they have it mostly right, or at least, very well aligned with the needs of most ordinary people. Populist to the core.
Many of us older people are gently planting the idea of a movement that endures beyond the primaries. If most of us put Bernie on a small, recurring donation, the truth is, we could have a very serious impact on Congress over the next 4 years. Think what the Tea Party did, only not shitty.
That’s exciting, and it may well come to pass, but for now, ONWARD! Maybe Bernie can squeak in there.March 19, 2016 at 10:18 pm #18841
Wow! Missing! You are all in! Did you see him in VAN? Dux was cool enough to post that info. Me? Had to work today. Bernie? Think he will hang in there until the convention. Will be interesting to see what happens then!March 19, 2016 at 10:30 pm #18842
Sadly, I can’t attend the rally, and I got shut out of the last one.
My life right now is slammed! Got a startup (another one that I really hope works out) ramping up right now. Two of my career mentors and I are basically making a new manufacturing play. I had to leave my old gig. 20 fucking years experience, and I’m known all over the place too. Did the work, got established, and am stuck with either having to move, or work with someone who I really can’t work for. Toxic, and I didn’t do all that work only to have to clean up messes all day long. Not good for me, nor the peeps who trust me.
So I took a job a couple years ago. It’s executive level, and it turns out I’m mostly up to that. Tough gig, which is what anyone wanting to break in gets, but I’ve learned more in these last two years than I have in the last 10.
Throughout all of this, those mentors, who have made great companies a couple times in their lives, got burned, and almost washed out. But, the three of us have a bead on a great, up coming trend… so, they are bootstrapping it big, and I’m using my spare time to support them technically. When it’s pulling down the cash, I’ll go full time, give up this gig, maybe consult for them until they get a replacement (I don’t leave people high and dry, never have), and then we build another one, but this time we own it, so we won’t get burned by people who can’t handle money, or who just can’t seem to respect those making it for them.
Yeah, lots of drama. In this economy, it’s tough to do stuff! We did leave a recession, but we never really did recover. Gotta fight for it. But, things are possible now that were not possible in the late ’00’s so it’s all good.
The activism gets whatever time is left, and I’m fried most days, but happy.
Oh, and I’m a Grandpa now! My youngest son has a daughter now. My oldest will have one later in the year!
Long ago, a good friend and another mentor, told me “relish in the quiet times. Recharge, and be ready for the not quiet times and ride ’em for all they are worth!”
Truth right there.March 19, 2016 at 10:46 pm #18843
Yeah. Bernie is going all the way to Philly. There is no discussion on that.
A lot of people don’t seem to understand the difference in campaigns. Traditionally, big money calls the shots. When the well runs dry, you pack it in. This happened to Jeb, for example. He spent something like 38K / delegate! Absolutely miserable, and they cut him off.
With Bernie, it’s people powered. So there are three basic goals in play:
– win it, if possible. And everybody knows it’s an underdog scenario, no worries. Everybody also knows that Bernie has exceeded pretty much all expectations. You won’t hear that from the media, who is totally anti-Bernie, and understandably so. He would go after money in politics, which most traditional media is making a killing on.
When Hill has done well, more dollars came in for Bernie, as did more people, volunteers, etc… all went up! Nobody wants to pack it in, because…
-take it to Philly, earning enough delegates to have a say on the party platform. This can help to lock in some moves to the left, and frankly, that helps Clinton, even though she doesn’t like or even recognize it.
So, there is no stopping early. The people in this are in it whole hog. Nobody is telling Bernie to stand down, and he doesn’t want to. So, Philly it is. Again, most don’t understand this, and the media and pundits are blathering about it, “the math” and all that, totally missing what is really happening. Of course, if they would actually do some real reporting, they would have the scoop.
-Build a movement that endures beyond the election.
This is another thing people don’t understand. The biggest criticism of Bernie happens to be his message being seen as “impossible” or “unrealistic” due to how fucked Congress is. Well, there are a batch of things Bernie can do without requiring laws. Executive branch moves to prosecute, limit banking in various ways, and so forth. There are actionable things possible. Not being discussed, and again, traditional media is way out of touch here. Not even an option, because that’s all hostile to their business.
Secondly, Bernie would change the Democratic party organization some. A couple of choice moves would center more efforts on people oriented policy visions, and put a lot of the party back into the hands of ordinary people, rather than wealthy insiders. This is why Bernie is on the shit list with the establishment Dems. They know a lot of their own base is aging out, and they know Progressives want the party, and that fight has been hush, hush, but it’s not going to stay that way. It might for this election, depending on a Bernie win.
In case of a non-win, the most exciting part of this is as I mentioned above. People are realizing they can make a movement and compete. Despite what people say, Bernie has won States and outperformed every metric “same old, same old” politics has on record. People trump dollars.
Who knew? I didn’t.
So the path there is to congeal the movement, and then take it forward to gain power, take seats, grow numbers, and do all the stuff movement politics is supposed to do, but so far, has not been productive, due to the lock money has on everything. We shall see, if it holds. I hope it does, and am doing my part to push that vision.
So there you go!
All the way to Philly. And now you know a lot of why, and how that just isn’t really something our mainstream, establishment media is willing to talk about.March 19, 2016 at 11:17 pm #18844
So, one more thing.
This one is very highly controversial. If we want meaningful change, the money isn’t going to allow that. Sure, we can tweak a little here and there, and that’s what Obama has done a fine job of, and it’s what I expect of Clinton.
Perfectly livable, but everything costs something.
Want better health care policy? Well, that’s going to mean price locks and patent expansion for big pharma. Or, more generally, improving things for people costs us shit like having that TPP trade deal shoved through.
(and that one is going to cost people big, and it’s my one very serious complaint with establishment Democrats since Clinton. They enter into those damn things and it’s just not good for people here.)
To get that change, we either:
1. Form a successful Third Party and win with it.
Not gonna happen. Our current system just doesn’t allow for that scenario. The math doesn’t work, and without that in play, multi-party representation and all the other nice to have schemes are non-starters. We have what we have, and we will live with it, barring some very ugly revolution nobody wants to slog through and die for.
2. Change, bend, or take a party!
This is basically what happened with the GOP a while back. They initiated it with the Southern Strategy. In the short term, that won elections. But it’s like a bad drug. The first hits are free, but then it all starts to cost a lot and fuck things and people up.
The religious right solidified as a voting bloc. This was manageable. Give ’em lip service, and trade that for the economic policy votes and wins. Reagan kicked that shit off, and we’ve lived under that same basic economic ideology ever since. Dems have tweaked and blunted it some, but we’ve never really stepped away from the whole supply side, trade deal nonsense that decimated manufacturing and the middle class.
But, each win brought more people into office, and the rise of the Tea Party saw a ton of these asses in power! Now they actually want stuff, not just lip service, and they have the numbers to help make it happen. Social policy is still advancing, but the right is throwing real punches now, and with all the gerrymandering, etc… going on, it’s really difficult to get anything done. The GOP divided along moderate and extreme lines, and really can’t govern, as we’ve seen for the last 6 years or so.
The product of that is Trump.
For Democrats, the divide is basically along Gen X and older Boomers, who are fine with Clinton style “Third Way” or “New Democrats” who basically tow the Reagan economics, with a lot of compromise. We get things like the ACA, which really does help people, but it really costs us too, and it’s not really impacting the big cost centers. That is the kind of legislation we can expect with Clinton, who will be Obama 2.0. Good, but we can and need to do much better.
Millenials got fucked on this. What I have noticed is they didn’t get what we got, and that is some meaningful progress to warrant party loyalty and strength. To them, it’s one establishment owning two parties. Democrats and Republicans offer two different flavors of shit sandwiches. One with cheeze, one without, kind of thing. They, along with Progressive Democrats, who have consistently opposed Reaganonmics, and “Third Way” type policy, never have managed to get more than fleeting power.
Examples, like Elizabeth Warren, Alan Grayson, shine bright, but they lack people power and money. So they are messaging, and helping where they can, but really it’s a lock for the establishment.
Younger people, who didn’t get what we got, and who really are not experiencing prosperity, are angry and this is in line with global trends too. Several national elections have happened and the winners were from the left, but they didn’t see many of the reforms the winners ran on.
The fucking money. Entities, like the IMF, actually are admitting progressive type economic reform would do good things, but big finance and multi-nationals aren’t having any of it. The struggles in the EU, for example, are clashing along money lines with left leaning governments hobbled by the Euro and Brussels maintaining austerity policy.
So, back to the US.
Obama ran on very progressive ideas. He won, and for a couple years, while we had Pelosi as Speaker and owned the Congress, we got some stuff done. But, very notably, that stuff wasn’t really progressive. It was nice, and we are happy to have it, but it’s not a change in direction, and it’s all flirting with austerity policy still!
The ACA debate showed everyone where the Democrats divide is, and it’s on economics! The party is unified on social policy, but sharply divided on economic policy. Progressives on one side, “third way” market and business friendly types on the other side. We could see this, because the GOP was nice enough to say “No” as a party, forcing Democrats to show their hand, and own that divide.
Progressives learned they had not yet earned a seat at the table, we didn’t get public option, we didn’t get cost controls, we didn’t get limits on big pharma, and a lot of other things… Hell, we didn’t even get a real Stimulus. To Obama’s credit, we did get one, but it was about a third of the size it needed to be, and it was about half tax cuts, which just don’t create jobs…
Now we are at the end of Obama, who has done a good job, given what he has to deal with, but the people, particularly young people aren’t having it! They are not seeing economic opportunity, are suffering massive debt, low buying power, massive (30 percent in some cases) unemployment, delaying major life moves like cars, marriage, homes, etc… are unable to start businesses, and on and on it goes.
Occupy and the Fight for 15 represent the genesis of anti-establishment politics in the US, and this election is an establishment referendum election.
(which is why both Trump and Sanders are getting the kinds of things done nobody expects to get done)
***shit this is long…March 19, 2016 at 11:30 pm #18845
So, #2! Take a party!
This is what the Sanders movement represents! Progressives know they need to take the Democratic party, or at the very least get enough power to become a voting bloc with real leverage, or nothing will actually change much.
And the youth will not see any benefit, unless there actually is some real change.
Now, with Clinton, when you donate, you buy a little bit of Clinton. What you get are the scraps left by the big money who really do own her and most of our legislators. They must spend the majority of their time fundraising, and they owe so many favors that we the people really don’t get too much.
Gen Y, millennials and the latest generation I don’t have a name for yet, have been fucked over. They got what the big money left for them, and frankly, that’s not much compared to what we all got.
With Bernie style movements and politics, a donation gets you all of Bernie! He’s working for us, doesn’t owe anybody anything much, and that’s why he’s getting the support he is getting. The reason why he’s not winning and it’s a real slog is he is competing with an establishment that is married to the money, and that establishment is hostile to progressive policy, because that isn’t what the money paid for.
And that is why I’m in on this. People apparently can fund their candidates well enough to compete, and maybe that’s not quite viable this time around nationally, but you can bet your ass it’s gonna be viable at the State level. (which is exciting)
Which brings me to the last one
#3 Ugly violence, rebellion, and just flat out rage.
Nobody wants this, but it still could happen if we continue to screw our kids out of the opportunity they need to do what we all got to do in life.
That’s how I see the battle lines anyway. It’s been a long time coming, but this election is the first real establishment referendum with teeth. And it’s not gonna go away, unless something gives.
Honestly, Clinton isn’t going to do that. She’s gonna be Obama 2.0, with a trick or two to play, and I like her, don’t get me wrong, but she’s not progressive. I could be wrong, but I’ve seen zero evidence that she actually has a plan to be that change agent the nation needs.
And, by the way, the US is a debt based monetary soverign. We never, ever have to do austerity. We can put people to work, build what we want, and so forth, just like we did with FDR, the WPA, CCC, etc…
This progressive movement knows that, and as it grows, people are going to understand the only thing keeping us from real growth is big money and it’s artificial limits on our economic potential. I have my ideas as to why that is, and maybe I’ll write them another day. For now, just understand that’s where the clash is.
Bernie is the only one out there actually advocating labor friendly economic policy. He’s the only one actually advocating meaningful wealth redistribution done in a way that really is a net gain to the least of us, so they can present as meaningful players in the economy, not just cost centers all of us have to pay for.
There really aren’t other options. Real change is going to go down one of those paths, and taking a party is the most direct path available, which is why the Democrats are having the struggle they are having right now. Republicans have theirs too, but it’s of a different sort. Really fucking right as opposed to moderate right, and social issues are their fault lines.
Add in the Supreme Court, and this is a mega election!
The Bernie campaign, where the youth are at, and why they are where they are, is all lining up with what I and many of you have written about here for years.
Now is the fucking time to see if it can happen, and if it can, great! Let’s get after it. If it’s not quite in the cards just yet, political will not there, then form a movement with the intent of building that will so the next time it will happen.
Run twice to win once, kind of thing.March 19, 2016 at 11:44 pm #18846
One last thing. The number of people presenting as independent has grown, while Democrats have shrunk some. I think it’s something like 40 percent Dem, a similar percent Republican, and independents growing from there.
Those independents are huge anti-establishment voters, and they are trending young too. (which is where the growth is coming from as boomers of all stripes age out)
Something like 80 percent of them are anti-establishment voters. They can decide elections this year.
As much as 30 percent of the support for Bernie is independent voters. They may not actually vote Clinton in the general. Frankly, I would be shocked if half of them did.
Interesting to think about, yes?March 20, 2016 at 12:31 am #18848
Sir. I can’t tell you how much that means. Yes. It took awhile to read and digest it all. I am not what I used to be. Thanks for sharing so much personal deep things with us all. That is why you have earned my deepest respect!! Still hope Bernie wins!!March 20, 2016 at 2:42 am #18851BrianlParticipant
Damn Doug, when do you sleep?? Your energy, especially with all the irons you have in the fire, is truly astounding.
Oh, and congratulations on being a grandparent!! That’s awesome. 😊March 20, 2016 at 9:18 am #18852
I sleep hard and short. 6 hours, cold. 🙂
Anyway, that’s why I’m scarce. Yesterday was a total down day. Really enjoyed it, just did a bunch of little stuff I like. Today is similar. Grind happens next week.
Hey on a quick note, if you were to play music for the 5th district in Oregon, for Bernie, what would you play?March 20, 2016 at 5:47 pm #18856skepticalParticipant
I believe we need to see Millennials get elected to Congress before the shift becomes significant.March 20, 2016 at 5:51 pm #18857paulwalkerParticipant
Yes, many millennials will not turn out for Clinton. This could be somewhat problematic, but I still believe she has a pretty easy path to the Presidency. As in, some, if not many Republicans will vote Hillary as an opposition to the GOP circus, depending what happens at the convention. This could become very interesting.March 20, 2016 at 6:35 pm #18862
Skep is right. If we need to see faster and more significant progress on the left. The Millennials will need to get off their video games, porn, and pot smoking, and get serious. After all, it will their lives at stake!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.