March 16, 2016 at 3:59 pm #18779
Hey everyone! I’ve been scarce around these parts and have been putting my time into the Sanders campaign. Phones and Facebook. Dollars too. I’ve got Sanders on a recurring contribution right now.
Hill has it just about locked up, but she’s also at the high expectation point of the map too. The door remains open for Sanders a while longer yet. The next 9 or so States will tell all.
However unlikely Sanders is to win, I’m in for these reasons:
1. The guy is awesome. I’m voting for who Sanders votes for, period. Ideally, that is Sanders. He’s one of my very favorite legislators and this campaign is awesome!
2. Messaging. Hill has already come quite a ways left on economic policy. Good. The more she does that, the harder it is for her to pivot back. If she’s gonna run, she better damn well be running leaning left. Sanders is right there to make sure everyone is on board with that.
2.5 Risk. I have worries about Clinton and the e-mail process she used. I sincerely hope it’s benign, and can be ignored. But, if it’s not? Sanders needs to be there, just in case.
Sanders has not, and I predict won’t, attack Clinton on the e-mails. We have a legal process to resolve all of that, and it’s being followed. But, having a nominee under investigation isn’t something I want to trust fully, until there is a resolution.
3. Movement! Guys, the youth, under 30 crowd, and to a large degree, under 40 crowd is organized and on FIRE! I’ve not seen anything like it, to be honest. And that inspires me to put in time and money. Sanders has made it clear he’s in to win, but he’s also made it very clear the movement, once built and working, isn’t something that will go away anytime soon. He’s a progressive leader thinking beyond just winning office. We don’t get many of those.
This movement can have down ballot implications.
If we want a real change in direction, the most direct path to getting that done is to take a party, bend it, and then go that direction. This is what Sanders is attempting to do with the Democratic Party. Tons of Dems aren’t happy about that, and I don’t blame them, but it’s either the Dems, or the Republicans… and we know where that is going.
The thing is, tons of Dems and independents are up for the change too! It’s a matter of genuine ambiguity, something I did not expect to see. The moment I did, I decided to contribute. Again, that doesn’t come by very often.
4. Small money. Over 5 million individual contributions, and more coming all the time. To have this impact with no PAC money is crazy! I can’t let that go either. It’s a lot of what I’m about, and building a movement, having influence, and potentially a Presidential run is way too sweet to ignore.
Join me. It’s fun.
Or not… that’s OK too. 🙂
Sanders is the best opportunity to form and execute on a progressive movement with teeth I’ve had in my lifetime. Gotta go all in. If I don’t, then just what the fuck were all those words I put here good for?
(and yes, I think about that stuff)
[puts flame suit on]
I’m not really serious about the flame suit. You guys say what you want. It’s all good, and I know and trust all of you.
This is just something I need to do. And again, it’s fun, and I believe, meaningful.March 16, 2016 at 5:01 pm #18780BrianlParticipant
Bernie is absolutely KILLING it with our youth. 18-26 demographic, and skewing older, is all in. What’s exciting for me to see is, how involved they are getting. I can’t ever recall a candidate that has done that. Bill Clinton excited many in 1992 (when I was in that age group), but nothing like this.
My daughter is 20, and she is TOTALLY feeling the Bern. She asks me constantly about this candidate and that issue, and I happily spell out for her what the issue is and what it means down the road (being intentional as possible to keep my opinion out of it, to let her formulate her own opinions), and she is all in on Bernie. Even better, she is getting all of her friends, colleagues and classmates, involved. And this is happening at a huge rate.
This is HUGE for our future, and I am very excited about it, no matter who they support and which party they align themselves with.March 16, 2016 at 8:14 pm #18792skepticalParticipant
While I like Bernie, his crowd won’t be at full strength until 2024. Historically that age group (Millennials) just aren’t going to show up at the polls this November. Even if elected, Bernie has no clout in Congress (he’s an independent). Very few of his ideals will become law. The Millennials need to gain seats in Congress before anything real can happen.
We’ve seen this excitement before. George McGovern anyone? People my age were all excited about the fantastic future he was going to bring and we couldn’t imagine anyone not being on board with this, never mind losing an election. He lost in a landslide, to NIXON! I was pretty much bummed out of politics for a long time afterwards.
Although he lost, McGovern set the stage for like-minded Gore, Clinton and Kerry to enter politics. Bernie is doing the same for kids of voting age today.March 16, 2016 at 8:30 pm #18793VitalogyParticipant
I hate to be the buzzkill, but let me bring forth the math. Hillary will be the nominee. Numbers don’t lie. We’ve known this for a while but it’s starting to become fact. Hillary will be the nominee and I encourage all Bernie supporters to put forth all their passion toward Hillary moving forward. If not, you risk seeing a douchebag like Cruz or Trump elected.March 16, 2016 at 10:29 pm #18794
That’s not a buzz kill at all. Perfectly rational.
At this time, that math is a not a lock. The Sanders campaign has three basic goals:
1. Win it, if possible. That remains possible, though not probable.
2. Run the whole race, end up in Philly with enough delagates to have a real say in the party platform. That’s totally gonna happen. Worth it.
3. Build a people powered movement. Ideally, this gets used in tandem with #1, but it can also be used in tandem with #2. Progressives having some leverage is not a bad thing. One, in Florida, already won their seat due to influence from what I’m going to call, “the Sanders movement.”
#2 and #3 are totally gonna happen. Sanders isn’t money locked like most everyone else is. No big donors to cut off the funds, or direct the campaign. He’s going to Philly. It’s not even a question.
Should Clinton get the nod, she’s not likely to get all the Sanders voters. She will get the ones, like me, who are Democrats looking to improve on the party overall. She won’t get the ones, largely younger ones, looking away from establishment politics, the money, etc.. and toward a more definitive, populist politics.
The latter are, “Bernie or bust” voters, and could be as much as a third of the support for Bernie. They are new voters, often young, and looking to recruit more of the same. Many would prefer a third party, but realize it’s not viable in the US to do that, and will settle for changing a party instead.
More interestingly, the whole, “But Trump…” approach isn’t going to work with them. They don’t seem to care much, and consider that condition one where maybe it sucks hard enough to get people to actually vote populist, and against the money. I’ve met a few of these now, and it’s a very interesting conversation.
Make no mistake here. I’m all in, full Dem party ticket period. Clinton will do fine. Obama 2.0 as far as I’m concerned.
But, I am quite surprised at the number of people on the left, and indies who lean left, who really aren’t on board with that. They are flat out hostile actually.
I consider the Sanders campaign important because Clinton will need to move left to improve voter turnout. Way too many people aren’t excited and are voting the “we don’t suck as bad as Republicans do” ticket. That’s in contrast to the GOP voters, who always run against, are used to it, pissed as hell, and just itching to vote. A nice fraction of the GOP can’t stand Trump, and will likely stay home, or vote Clinton too.
There is a band of highly volatile voters in this election. 20 percent is my gut take on it.
Finally, for me personally, I’m not convinced Clinton will get through the e-mail investigation clean. Hope she does. Really hope this is all just a bunch of noise and that noting material and actionable happened and she just made a choice of efficiency, etc…
That’s not good, and I want a plan B.
It won’t hurt for Bernie to get his crowd jazzed up, have his say in the party platform, and then can point to that and give those people ongoing reasons to vote FOR stuff. Turnout goes up, party alignment with it’s needy base goes up, and it’s a net good as far as I’m concerned.March 17, 2016 at 12:57 am #18798Dxer1969Participant
Very glad you are working on the Sanders campaign! Me? If Sanders is still in it, he will get my vote. I just like what the man stands for.March 17, 2016 at 2:55 am #18801skepticalParticipant
Here’s some locked math:
There are no more states left where the winner gets all the delegates, so in order to get the nomination Bernie will have to win at least 57.5% of all the ballots cast in all the remaining states to topple Hillary.March 17, 2016 at 4:08 am #18803Dxer1969Participant
To be honest with you, I do not think that will happen. But still, I like the guy. I believe in what he stands for. But hell, I know. I’m a dem. I will cast my vote for Hillary when the time comes. I’m just hoping and dreaming is all.March 17, 2016 at 8:48 am #18805
@Skep: When those voters have voted, then we know. Until then, it’s possible, and where it’s possible, the work is getting done.
Besides, Sanders is going all the way to Philly. Clinton is going to have to campaign the whole way, or yield votes. This is good for everyone.
Once there, ideally with more than 30 percent of the delegates, it’s time to influence the party platform, and set the movement up to target and support progressives in Congress during the general election.
“the math” doesn’t mean much in the context of all that is planned.March 17, 2016 at 9:13 am #18806
There is another thing. I’m not sure how many of you know the story of Aaron Schwartz:
Aaron showed us that politics and code can be combined to great effect. He founded a number of organizations, “Demand Progress” being one of them I can recall off hand. The idea was to build out messaging, GOTV, news, policy, etc… into a code / Internet powered mix that can reach people, get them engaged, and check media apathy.
I believe in that very strongly.
As demographics change, Aaron will be proven more right than not, and I see it as a good thing.
Had we not lost Aaron, this Bernie thing would look a hell of a lot different.
Amazingly, Bernie gets this. (something I did not expect at all)
Right now, this effort will yield some progressive moves in the Democratic party. And that’s just great. It’s what I’m about.
But, there also is something to be said for the alphas in all of this. They are good. They aren’t Aaron good, but they are good enough. Code, politics, etc… are in play, and it’s working, and there are a lot of them too.
It may well not be enough for Bernie to get the nod. I’m not sure anyone is really going to argue that, but they also aren’t going to step down either. Clinton has to earn it fair and square.
It will form a movement that has a great chance of enduring beyond this election. I’m hoping for that, and have been messaging to that effect. I’m not alone either. This next round of people coming into politics can have a very serious impact! Those seeds need to form, and then grow.
My time is worth it on that basis alone. Just so it’s clear.March 17, 2016 at 11:06 am #18808LurkingGrendelParticipant
I love Bernie. As I’ve said in other threads, were he the nominee I’d happily vote for him and I think he’d make a fine President in many ways.
However, I’m too pragmatic to become overly enthused nor invested in the idea. The math is just not there for him.
And the alternatives to either Bernie or Hillary are just too terrifying to dwell upon. I hope everyone, including those whom may lean or even self-identify as Republican whom also happen to be thoughtful, keeps that firmly in mind.
To the issue at hand, (then) Senator Clinton threw her full weight behind Barack Obama once the math became impossible for her and he became the presumptive nominee. I fully expect Senator Sanders will do the same. The contest of (actual) ideas is good for our democracy; and on the Democratic side that’s really all it’s been. An adult, rationale, substantive, conversation. The Democrats will rally around our nominee; which is very likely going to be Hillary Clinton.
She’s not without political liabilities; and by the way I’m talking about real ones as opposed to the parade of hyperbolic and conspiracy theory originated lunacy that flies around in Tea Party/GOP base-land and across the conservative media about Hillary. She’s often engaged in a bit much political triangulation and is often not the most warm n’ fuzzy personage. However, she’s Lincoln or Kennedy compared to the offensive idiots the GOP has coughed up. She’s an inarguably brilliant, thoughtful, experienced, public servant. When you “like” her or not, is in my opinion, kind of beside the point.
Sidebar: Everyone “liked” George W Bush more than Al Gore. It was really the beginning of the end when people began celebrating blindly certain and stupid over nuanced and intelligent. That turned out well.
Compare the Democratic primary to the childish food fight on the right where the (now) presumptive GOP nominee has spent the better part of every debate insulting his opponents in a manner reminiscent of a ten year old, failing to address utterly anything policy related with even an iota of specificity while simultaneously making statements that range from grotesque to absurd to utterly made up, and most recently spent time on the debate stage bragging about the size of his dick. He’s a con man and a carnival side show; who enjoys the support of low information voters, angry white people, and a host of racist organizations.
Super.March 18, 2016 at 5:44 am #18821duxruleParticipant
Bernie’s going to be in Vancouver on Sunday.March 19, 2016 at 8:52 pm #18831paulwalkerParticipant
Clinton will take on the republican nominee. I am not certain it will be Trump. There is a lot of contention, (duh), in the GOP. But Clinton will take advantage of this contention and will be the next President Of The United States…mark my words 3/19/16.March 19, 2016 at 9:04 pm #18834Chris_TaylorParticipant
Hilary has been pretty much the presumptive winner even before she officially announced her candidacy. Not trying to shoot your prediction down.March 19, 2016 at 9:30 pm #18835paulwalkerParticipant
Yes, Chris. But there has been a lot of stupidity since then. At the end of the day (or the end of stupidity), she will become our next President. I am totally convinced of this. Watch as the GOP tries to enter an alternative to Trump, and then watch as they completely fall apart. These clowns have no path. And I tend to lean Republican. How is that for irony?
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