June 7 Primary Predictions

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 20 total)
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  • #20349
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Hillary will clinch the nomination with decisive wins in CA and NJ. Hillary will squeak it out in NM. Bernie will win MT and SD, but who cares about those states?

    Tuesday night Bernie drops out. Count on it.

    #20351
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Yes indeed the polls as an average show Hillary winning in California. However, there are 3-4 polls showing Bernie winning…but they are in the minority.

    But even if Bernie wins, it won’t cause Hillary to not be nominated, but she does need the momentum, and all indicators show she will get it.

    #20364
    skeptical
    Participant

    Bernie’s not going until the Superdelegates tell him to go. But it would be nice if he leaves Tuesday.

    #20379

    I’m predicting a Bernie win in CA with 51.5%.

    #20381
    edselehr
    Participant

    Okay, Bacon. But then Bernie woudl get 51.5% of the statewide delegates, and Hillary would get 48.5% of them, basically a tie. Then, they have to divvy up the congressional district-level delegates (3-4 per distict) on a district-by-district basis. Then, the 71 superdelegates from CA get to decide who they will vote for at the convention.

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/mar/27/california-delegates-tough-to-figure/

    So, I’m not going to get too excited about tomorrow’s primary. I imagine most of the district races are a lock, and even if Bernie can eke out a majority statewide it does not significantly alter the delegate allocation one way or the other. A little more here, a little less there…doesn’t matter. Clinton will walk away with enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

    As for the superdelegates? Most are party loyalists, and they will side with fellow party loyalist Hillary.

    #20392
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    Note from Earth: Hillary mathematically won this two months ago.

    #20393

    I was making a prediction about CA only. I know Hillary has the nomination locked up.

    #20395
    edselehr
    Participant

    Then why does it matter if Bernie wins CA, especially with a paltry 51% as you predict? As long as they allocate delegates more or less proportionally, he gains essentially nothing in his quest for the nomination. Bernie would make the same statement if he got 50%, or 46%, or even 40%, which is: a significant number of Americans like what Bernie has to say, and Clinton and the Democratic Party should take heed.

    I”m quite certain “message received” on that already.

    #20426

    It was just a prediction for the fun of predicting, like with a ball game. It doesn’t make any substantial difference to me, except that it tends to help Trump a little if Hillary struggles.

    It’s interesting that the Clinton-biased media is gleefully declaring Clinton the nominee today. That wouldn’t depress Bernie supporters a little in CA would it? The Clinton-biased media wouldn’t have thought about that would they have?

    If Bernie were to embarrass Clinton in CA, that would not be good for Clinton.

    #20427
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    It’s a conspiracy. Isn’t always in your world?

    #20433
    edselehr
    Participant

    A Bernie win in California wouldn’t be an embarrassment for Clinton – the “left coasters” in CA have the determination and energy to get the turnout needed for a Bernie majority. That’s the nature of the state.

    The percentages matter here. If Bernie ekes out a slim majority, that’s non-news. If Bernie clears 60% or better – well then, that’s newsworthy, and should get the attention of the DNC and Clinton.

    #20472

    It looks like its a Clinton blowout. I concede.

    However, what does this say about the polling which had them within 2 points of each other? It seems we can trust polls less and less.

    #20473
    edselehr
    Participant

    You’re right – let’s vow that all the polls should be taken with a grain of salt until November, when the only poll that matters is conducted.

    But I think Trump lovers will have a hard time with such a promise. As long as Trump keeps “speaking his mind”, outlier and “unskewed” polls will become their only solace.

    #20488
    Amus
    Participant

    However, what does this say about the polling which had them within 2 points of each other? It seems we can trust polls less and less.

    What it really means is that you choose the polls that tell you what you want to hear.

    Confirmation bias

    ___________________________

    From fivethirtyeight.com

    According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 89% chance of winning the California primary

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/

    #20490
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    “It seems we can trust the poll less and less”.

    See also, a statement often uttered by those often in abject denial of reality. I note it’s been an increasing refrain as of late from many delusional Bernie supporters as well.

    As the (very) daunting electoral math facing Donald J Trump due to his ridiculous levels of unpopularity across wide swaths of the public becomes ever more apparent to even the quite dense, I forecast you’re going to be hearing more and more about how the polling is wrong as we approach November.

    Hey, worked for Romney, right?

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