May 20, 2016 at 4:12 pm #20014
Almost every poll is saying Clinton and trump are neck to neck in national polls. In fact some polls are saying Trump is now ahead of Clinton. I can’t see how Bernie staying in the race is helping crooked Hillary, it’s dividing the Democratic Party. How can that be good? That being said, the Democratic Party is an absolute total mess, but damn entertaining. Bernie sanders supporters are passionate and really resonate with sander’s message. Hillary Clinton has the likability factor of a paranha, she is unlikable and resonates with nobody.
“The clintons are like genital herpes.Just when you think they’re gone, they show up again.- Tim AllenMay 20, 2016 at 5:21 pm #20015
When you are dead, you don’t know that you are dead. It is difficult only for others. It is the same when you are stupid.
“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.”
― Euripides, The BacchaeMay 20, 2016 at 5:41 pm #20016skepticalParticipant
Dork, talk to Mitt Romney about polls then get back to us. Wait . . . you’re dead, or is it stupid?May 20, 2016 at 6:02 pm #20017paulwalkerParticipant
“when you are dead, you don’t know you are dead”…
That is a good quote, and it makes sense, but we tend to forget that about 85-90% of the world population doesn’t believe it.
So, hence the conflicts, in fact most conflicts in the world the past 1,000-2,000 years, and beyond are based on religion.
I will rely on others to pick it up from here…May 20, 2016 at 6:18 pm #20022
Sorry guys but Killary “Benghazi” Clinton won’t stand a chance against Trump. He will mutilate her just like he did the other 14 republicans he was running against.Killary has the likability factor of a Mosquito that carries the Zika virus.May 20, 2016 at 6:22 pm #20023paulwalkerParticipant
And I thought my post would be met with intelligence. Whoops…May 20, 2016 at 6:36 pm #20026VitalogyParticipant
The electoral map says otherwise.
And I don’t put too much stock in “national polls”. We don’t elect the president like that. It’s done by state. So if you think Trump is going to mutilate Hillary, let us know what blue states he’s going to take away.
Regardless, Bernie continuing to hang around after he’s already been mathematically eliminated does not help. It’s a net loss.May 20, 2016 at 10:13 pm #20028missing_kskdParticipant
Clinton can beat Trump. This is more true if they get smart at the convention and run a great platform.
I believe that will happen, and that belief is one primary reason I’m not considering Bernie a harm at all. A good populist agenda won’t hurt Dems one bit. The constant pull to the right over the last couple decades makes this hard to see too.
Regardless, we need a bit of that for national health and growth. Bernie is right about it.
Centrist, “third way” Dems are choking on it right now. Honestly, I do not believe they ever expected a self funding campaign to be competetive! That it is pleases me to no end.
They cannot ignore progressives and expect to win. Good.
We need this too. Money in politics isn’t going away anytime in the near future that I can see. There are efforts to reform, but they are all long game things.
When it is time for the midterms, the Bernie machine, movement, maybe BNC even, will be capable of a half billion dollars! That is based on a third of the current pool of donors, mostly being the regular ones, donating $27 monthly.
If they come anywhere near their modest goals, that kind of money applied to Congress will win a lot of seats! They could run from 50 to a few hundred contests and win a lot of them.
On people money.
Guys, I don’t care who ends up being President. (Not Trump, but even if he did win…. just for argument) That kind of effort will do a lot to improve how government is performing.
Worth this race to build the necessary support and infrastructure.
Net gain. Big net gain right there.
And make no mistake, that movement piece is a definitive plan, to be led and directed by Bernie. It’s gonna happen.
Say Clinton Takes the White House. Right now, that should be our majority and most likely expectation. It is mine.
What will she need going into that first term? Congress like Obama had.
Many argue her coattails won’t be as good as Bernie’s are. That is my expectation too.
She would win and face a mess, not a sweet majority like Obama had.
And then here comes Bernie and in general, Berniecrats. As a movement with a clear populist, labor focused agenda, it could break this ugly mid term cycle we have suffered for too long.
Count me all in on that. I’ve got my $27 on a recurring now. Will point that money to the BNC the moment I can.
I want you all to consider something. I have mentioned this Bernie campaign to build a movement and run for President is not the same old game.
Really, it isn’t.
What does that mean?
Unlike other campaigns, this one has a firm policy goal attached to and driven by real, basic human need. It isn’t wrong in any of that.
The other thing in play is the idea it won’t go away. The need doesn’t, so why should the effort to address it?
Recurring, month to month people money works very differently from the big donor model we are all used to. For many, that contribution is easy to do and forget about. The scale Bernie has demonstrated is possible when it’s targeted right at populist policy means very large sums are plausuble.
Because of those things, the campaign strategy is to do things that advance the agenda regardless of what opponents do.
And, in the end, that agenda is great for Democrats.
Win the nomination, or not, progress and all the good stuff needed to take the movement forward is happening nicely!
Of course, the optimal scenario is a Bernie win, but it is not necessary that happen for the rest of it to continue and do the good intended.
You are seeing a mix of old school and new politics play out, and it is clashing hard with the usual games, people and political machinery we are all used to seeing.
Just know that. No reason at all to exit the race. Lots of reasons to max out the effort, and that is precisely what we will see happen too.
As far as the math goes, both Clinton and Sanders will arrive in Philly needing Superdelegates to win. The party rules state we decide on delegates, nothing else.
The Superdelegates cast their votes in Philly, and our nominee will be determined at that time.
The math does not eliminate Bernie, nor does it clinch for Clinton, again due to the party rules in play for this election. Every vote, every delegate matters, as does the information the Supers will have prior to casting their votes. This includes who won what States, etc…
The expectation is they will vote Clinton the winner. There is actually nothing obligating them to do that. The key bit here is they do make the final, definitive call when the voters do not, and that is determined when when neither candidate wins on non-Superdelegates alone.
That is the case in this primary.
Bernie has every right to participate in an open Democracy and make his case, and that is exactly what will happen, as intended and designed long before any of this began.
I see no harm, and a huge potential upside in all of this, and fully support the entire party process. Wouldn’t matter much if I didn’t either.
As stated, there isn’t any meaningful leverage against Bernie. He works for those who funded him, and there isn’t actually anyone at all, anywhere who can tell the movement what to do. What we are seeing is enough Americans want change to stay fully involved. That is reasonable and appropriate and intended by our founders, and the party rules themselves.
It is my belief, as we get closer to Philly, and everyone understands all that much better than they do today, the incentives to come up with a great plan for the general, no matter who gets the nom, will be very compelling. The alternative is to risk a brutal loss. Nobody wants that.
So a good plan that recognizes these forces will get made and the vast majority of us will go and vote how we need to.
Those votes are extremely likely to kick Trump right in the sack.May 20, 2016 at 10:32 pm #20029missing_kskdParticipant
There you go LG, a case and the facts as I understand them.
It’s all I got man. 😀May 20, 2016 at 11:17 pm #20030
Vitalogy- I think the only blue states trump will lose is Maryland and Deleware. Those are two of the most democratic states in the country, so yeah Trump will lose those, but I think the rest of the blue states Trump has a shot of winning.May 23, 2016 at 4:56 pm #20059
Oh really? Or in meme parlance, ORLY?
How, exactly, do you arrive at that conclusion? As noted by myself and others, and ignored by you time and again as that’s your preferred method of addressing a critical point you lack the intellectual prowess to rebut, presidential elections are not won or lost by national polling numbers. They are won and lost by votes in the electoral college which in turn are derived from the state by state contests.
Since the 2000 election five states have been critical to Republican presidential strategy. Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Since 2000 the first four have voted twice for the red team and twice for the blue team. New Mexico went Democratic for every election since 2000 save 2004.
President Obama won all five of them. Twice. The demographic profiles of those states have since become more Democratic leaning; not less. To flip any of them into Trump’s win column he’ll need to appeal to young voters and (even more critically) Hispanic voters. To say he’s loathed by that demographic is a disservice to the word loathed. It’s not apt enough.
Outside of his key demographic, and this is not my nomenclature but rather taken directly from exit polling during the Republican primaries, lower income and less educated white people, Donald has significant problems. If anything I’m understating the matter.
The Republicans are currently (grudgingly in many cases) coalescing around the nominee as he’s the last man (well sort of) standing. This in turn bolsters his favorable scoring as well as the potential match up polling. Hillary Clinton is still in a primary and facing withering friendly fire. This in turn suppresses her favorable scoring. The Democratic party has not begun to rally behind one, candidate. That’s (at this point in time) a significant polling disadvantage. That’s not spin, that’s reality.
And as I and others have noted, and you’ll no doubt continue to ignore as you have no fact based rationale to offer in response, this kind of head to head polling (regardless of what it shows; up to including the fact that Hillary is +3 at the moment over Donald in the averaging of all such national polling) is generally meaningless. Entertaining, but meaningless.
I.e. It’s the state by state you should be looking at/be concerned about.
There’s nothing particularly remarkable about any of these analytics. They’re fact based and widely held; they’re just not particularly exciting for websites or cable news to detail.
But let’s not get bogged down in math. Let’s focus again on the point that you blindly support a serial lying, bigoted, xenophobic, offensive, bullying, loud and proud ignoramus. It’s also (amusing and/or sad, I’ll let others make the call) you’ve often adopted word for word the same childish insults as your new patron. Interesting.
How about you show some work? What, exactly, do you base your dubious conclusions on? You think “the rest of the blues states Trump has a shot at winning”?
Ok, then! No wonder you’re jolly. I would be too if I lived in your world. It must be, what’s the word I’m looking for? Ah, blissful. That’s it.May 23, 2016 at 5:44 pm #20060
My whole point is that trump is not an ordinary candidate. He will pull in democrats and independents, not just republicans. He will do much better in a lot of the blue states that other republicans in the past lost.May 23, 2016 at 6:21 pm #20062
You’ve mistaken hurt for disdain. I think you’re an idiot.
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