May 17, 2016 at 7:11 pm #19918
Another primary night and nothing has changed. Mostly the fact that Bernie has 0.00% chance of being the nominee. Moving forward his presence is a net loss for Democrats. It’s time for Bernie to come out and publically admit he has no chance to win.May 17, 2016 at 7:34 pm #19919
Not that it changes the math, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say Hillary will take Oregon. I know Bernie has a lot of support, but we have a closed primary.May 17, 2016 at 7:43 pm #19920paulwalkerParticipant
With all respect, Vit, I believe Bernie will win Oregon, despite a closed primary. Results should be available within the hour.May 17, 2016 at 10:17 pm #19924May 17, 2016 at 11:43 pm #19925
Bernie wins Oregon nicely, unless there is some very serious shake up in the last minute votes.
Kentucky is a tie basically, Clinton eeked it out!
No, it isn’t time for Bernie to admit anything at all.
People have a very hard time understanding the difference in the Bernie campaign.
For one, yes. We want Bernie to win. That’s a very long shot, but still possible. The campaign will go to Philly, and it will make it’s case to the supers, who will be deciding this as the will of the voters was not definitive.
What you say?
Yes, not definitive. This is by design, and the Democratic Party wanted some control over the process, which resulted in this goofy Super system we have today.
In cases like this, where neither candidate actually can deny the other the win on pledged delegates alone, it goes to the Supers, who will vote in Philly. The actual law is interesting, and that is the Party is basically a club. It can just pick somebody, if it wants to. The voters, and their votes are respected, but not definitive at all.
This year, we learn that. Who knew? Bernie did.
At this point, the two will end up in Philly, with a small percentage difference in overall pledged delegates. It will be something like 48-52, or thereabouts. Coupla point spread, maybe three, should Clinton kill it in Cali.
The FBI business will be done then. An indictment isn’t expected, but painfully, not yet taken off the table either. I sure hope that gets sorted out reasonably. Should it not, that’s a great reason to stay in.
Clinton isn’t polling well against Trump at all. Ideally, this improves, but it may not. Either one of them could do something ugly. Reason to stay in right there too.
Of course, all of these are long shot scenarios, and the majority expectation is for Clinton to come away with the nomination. That’s fine.
But, the other part of this campaign is a movement aimed at pulling the USA left in economic terms. That’s already borne fruit, and as a totally anti, as in I’m not gonna forget who did it, TPP voter, I am very much pulling for Bernie and his influence.
TPP isn’t progressive legislation at all. It’s gonna take a very significant bite out of the middle class, and did I say I was opposed? Completely unacceptable. Life changing type unacceptable.
No joke kids. These trade agreements forced me to jump careers a time or two in my life, and I’ve seen the carnage. This one will bite deep, and in 5 years after it goes through, you all will be remembering your pal KSKD and the words written here.
Please consider strong anti TPP advocacy. Clinton really needs it. She’s on the fence now, moved from a strong positive. That alone, and I mean this, is worth Bernie running. I’ll thank him, if it does not get signed.
But, I digress.
The movement piece is all about infrastructure and new voters in all 50 States. Some of the south didn’t feel the Bern, but a ton of States did. Good.
Win or lose, the next phase is organized efforts to go and take seats in Congress and get some real power and leverage.
Long game in play here. No rush to exit the primary at all. It’s a significant benefit to everyone involved that we have the funds, resolve, and wins needed to take it all the way through the convention.
This campaign just isn’t the usual game. Again, the media does not understand this AT ALL, or it doesn’t want to further the cause, or likely, some of both.
Fundraising will center around a quarter billion dollars people money! This is awesome, and more than enough to do great things with. If Bernie gets the nod, more will be needed for the General, and that infrastructure is in place now to get it.
If Bernie does not, that same infrastructure is very likely able to raise a third of that sum or more, and it can accumulate over a year or so to prep for the Congressional run. Running a coupla hundred challenges is entirely plausible. Winning a good fraction of those is plausible too.
Outcome: A Progressive Caucus with real teeth! And that is totally worth it.
Relax guys. Seriously. Good things are happening, despite the artificial and somewhat laughable hysteria being broadcast everywhere. Buckle in for Philly and beyond.
Here comes Bernie and Progressives. No joke. I could not be more pleased.
As for Clinton, she’s either going to be fine against Trump, or not. I do suspect Trump will fuck this up, and she wins easily. But, if not, it will be hers to lose. No real harm is being done by taking her left.
In fact, the major league harm is being done by all the dismissal and flat out ugly party treatment. Turns out the Democratic Party alphas just don’t like Progressives very much. When did that happen?
This campaign has value no matter who runs and wins the office of President. If it’s Trump, you guys are gonna want us. Big. Real leverage will be needed to keep the damage to a minimum. This movement is extremely likely to have that very soon.
If it’s Clinton? She gets way more support for populist legislation. What’s not to like?
And if it’s Bernie! Hello! Good times.
So that’s the state of things and how most people supporting Bernie see it.
No early exit, no need for one. The game plan is not your usual bid for President. Comparisons to past campaigns will result in expectations not aligned with the realities and motivations inherent in this one.
(which I’ve put here, clearly and accurately a few times now)May 17, 2016 at 11:52 pm #19926
BTW: I did quite a bit of younger voter outreach this year. Got a little data for you. It’s a small sample, but very interesting to me. Maybe to you too:
1. about 2/3 of them voted! Not bad.
2. 20 percentish voted Trump. Pissed off young people. Uninformed. But capable of voting, and voting they did. These are largely, “fuck you” type votes, mixed in with low information, “Trump will make America Great Again” emotional votes.
3. They think voting is really hard, until they actually do vote. Then it’s easy. Why didn’t they vote sooner?
4. It takes a TON of contacts to get them to vote.
5. Most of the rest voted Bernie, a few Clinton. I’m unclear on the breakdown, other than majority Bernie.
6. They do not respond to traditional media much at all. In my conversations, I would drop stories. Some were completely missed by them. On the other hand, media like TYT? Huge. TYT owns people under 35. No joke. Huge.
7. Facebook, Twitter and good old SMS (text) contacts work best.
8. Very large numbers of them do not feel all that good about capitalism. Their experience with it so far isn’t favorable. They very strongly favor more socialist type policies where it makes “common good” type sense. This is well aligned with most Progressives too. Lots of overlap here, but with some outliers.
Basic income is something they are very strong advocates for. They do not see job futures and believe the economy will need to shift some in order to make sense.
There you go. That’s what I learned this cycle so far.May 18, 2016 at 9:04 am #19930LurkingGrendelParticipant
He’s not going to be the nominee.
You and your candidate are helping The Republicans right now.
That’s what I’ve learned from this cycle so far.May 18, 2016 at 11:17 am #19933
I think Bernie is hurting Democrats at this point. He can’t win. So continuing to fight will only help Trump and the GOP. Anyone holding out even an ounce of hope that Bernie will be the nominee is deluded.May 18, 2016 at 12:05 pm #19934
No we arent. That is straight up fear mongering.
I won’t have fear and shame in an open democracy. There is no place for it.
If Clinton actually can’t beat Trump? Lol, should have ran with a guy who could.
That said, she will get all the help she needs. Hers to lose.
The GOP ran an idiot. Now is exactly the time to build as the Berners are doing. It is almost a freebie. The only ones complaining about money are the big donor dependent candidates.
So far there is exactly one candidate in the running who will commit to refuse TPP.
To be frank, that is a line. Those who cross it end up on my shit list permenantly. Incremental change is only meaningful when those increments build on one another for good.
TPP beats back a lot of progress, and notice the EU told us to get stuffed basically, when the agreement will roll back strong labor and environmental protections.
Good for them. We need to do the same.
Hell, even the freaks in the Tea Party have this right. And somehow Dems have it wrong? Unbelievable!
Having some populist leverage is a great thing. It’s gonna happen, nom or not.
The vast majority of the nation is in positive alignment with Progressives and that had been true for years now too.
There isn’t a thing on the agenda that cannot be done or is even radical policy.
Most of the fear is coming from the party stalwarts. They will get over it, and in the general, the vast majority will too.
Trump has no real chance, unless somebody gives him one.
So we get along after Philly and don’t give him one. Incentives are strong here.
But yeah, no fear, no shame. Won’t have it. No reason for it.
I was not fucking around with the words I put here for years either. Absolutely none of this should be a surprise at all.
One other thing, I know Bernie can beat Trump solid. I am confident Clinton can too.
The ones drumming up fear, who run away from popular agenda items, derived from real, valid and growing, basic human need are doing the harm. That isn’t Bernie or his supporters, all of whom stand ready and just itching to decimate the GOP.
Harm isn’t on us. Not one lick.May 18, 2016 at 12:16 pm #19936
“Trump has no real chance, unless somebody gives him one.”
And that somebody is Bernie. He’s becoming a net-loss for the blue team.
And there’s no fear or shame in facts or reality. Bernie can’t and won’t win, period. That is a fact, and it’s reality. Him continuing to move forward does nothing but add piss to the pool.May 18, 2016 at 12:19 pm #19937
Put another, very simple way.
The majority of the nation hates the GOP. If we run on a real change agenda, and mean it, we will crush them, and lord knows they have spent six long years just asking for it too!
So then, let’s go crush them! It is all as simple as that.
Honestly, I feel a very large number of current politicians are scaring themselves into defeat.
The people are more than ready. Serve it up to them, and it’s a huge win.
Even rabid Tea Party types are coming out anti Trump. Jesus. How much more of a softball is needed?
Dems gotta figure out what they really want. A strong message that speaks to party roots in labor, social values, economic investment will rule!
Or, what? Tepid message?
That is what this is all about, and it is what primaries are for. That is also the conversation in Philly too. Both of these two are bringing good game to the convention. What comes out of that should be well aligned with voters.
Run like Democrats, and it’s over. We win. Gotta quit running away from that stuff. Now is the time.May 18, 2016 at 2:35 pm #19940
Oh again, no fear, no shame. The long game is there for either outcome.
Best move in games is to make that move which improves on your game no matter what opponents do. That is precisely what the Bernie movement is doing.
Dems could learn a thing or two from gramps, it seems.
Done right, that same idea will decimate the GOP. They do not have meaningful answers and the majority totally knows that.
I’m hoping they see it and run strong and brutal. This is possible with either candidate too.May 18, 2016 at 2:41 pm #19941skepticalParticipant
Here’s the thing. It’s not even close. Both in delegates and total number of votes. Yes, quite a few people are thrilled with Bernie’s message. But not nearly enough to be hairsplitting about rules and DNC proceedures. All which were in place prior to the campaign, all of which Hillary followed. Here’s another thing you forgotten — the people who cast their ballots for Hillary. WTF man, are we nobodies? Last time I checked, we’re the majority. True, Hillary can’t win without the support of Bernie’s supporters, but it is also true the other way around. Bernie needs to yield gracefully. He just doesn’t have the support needed this time around. It’s not the end. His people can try again in 2020 or 2024 and work on stregthening their base in the meantime.May 18, 2016 at 2:57 pm #19942
It absolutely is a two way street to be resolved in Philly.May 18, 2016 at 3:15 pm #19943
A lot less chance of a head on collision on a one way street.
All you have to do is read the multiple news articles about how Bernie is now hurting the blue team in the general.
Passion of Bernie Sanders and his supporters turns against Democrats.
Bernie Sanders’s Defiance Strains Ties With Top Democrats.
Bernie Sanders vs. the Democrats.
Amid Democratic infighting, polls are improving for Trump.
This is not constructive to the blue team’s cause.
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