How the GOP tax bill will usher in recession

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This topic contains 2 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  cbaravelli 5 months ago.

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  • #34137

    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Walmart announced on Thursday it would raise starting wages for hourly employees to $11 an hour beginning next month, and will give some of its hourly workers one-time bonuses that could be as high as $1,000. In total, more than a million employees could benefit, the company said.

    The goodwill generated by that announcement, however, was quickly dampened by reports that Walmart would be closing 63 Sam’s Club stores across the country — some with no advance notice.

    In some cases “employees were not informed of the closures prior to showing up to work on Thursday” and “learned that their store would be closing when they found the store’s doors locked and a notice announcing the closure.” The closure of the stores will ultimately cost thousands of jobs.

    Thousands of jobs. Thousands of families lose income. It’s how recessions grow.

    #34142

    Vitalogy
    Participant

    Potential recessions are accurately predicted by flattening yield curves. Which is what we are seeing right now.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-yield-curve-flattening-is-the-real-deal-2017-12-15

    Should the yield curve invert, watch out. We will be headed to recession.

    Things appear great now, but clouds are on the horizon.

    #34164

    cbaravelli
    Participant

    Excellent post, Vitalogy.
    While 2 and 10 year Fed Reserve note and Treasury bond rates are AN indicator, it is not THE indicator for an inverted yield curve analysis. Fed no longer attempts to balance debt with long term 10 to 30 year bonds since QE1 (2010) and the Chins had been heavy short term debt buyers due to PRC economic ‘irregularities’ until Peking put an end to Yuan / RMB flight over a year ago.
    Coitus interuptus. If one year moving average is applied, to 1 and 10 year notes and bonds, yield curves are where they should be. Presidential election results provided a temporary reprieve from all the shouting about recessionary signs markets worried about between 2014 and 2016.
    DJIA shouldn’t be approaching 26,000 points in the real world. Who knows what’s gonna happen. We’ve never been here before.

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