Hillary: She’s surging in the polls — and many Republicans are in denial

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  • #21301
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    On Wednesday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com released his first general election forecast, which shows Hillary Clinton with an 80 percent chance of beating Donald Trump. If you like numbers and you know Silver’s track record in presidential elections, this should be something of a relief.

    Silver’s model gives Trump a 19 percent chance of winning the election. Right now he has Clinton taking the popular vote by seven points and absolutely crushing Trump in the Electoral College, 353 to 184.

    #21305

    I take Nate Silver with a grain of salt now since he totally blew the 2014 mid-terms as well as the 2016 Republican primary.

    Hillary is leading in the poll average, but not “surging.” Her average lead on Real Clear Politics has dropped slightly over the past several days.

    #21321
    nosignalallnoise
    Participant

    “Her average lead on Real Clear Politics has dropped slightly over the past several days.”

    RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a Chicago-based political news and polling data aggregator formed in 2000[2] by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan.[3][4][5] The site’s founders say their goal is to give readers “ideological diversity”.[6] This claim been disputed by some news outlets, alleging observations of a conservative bias in the content it displays” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Clear_Politics)

    #21323
    paulwalker
    Participant

    One thing to understand here is the political conventions are just weeks away. The GOP starts two weeks from tomorrow, and the DEMS start three weeks from tomorrow.

    I only post this as a reminder that for the most part if the parties have not got their shit together yet, it is probably too late.

    And I don’t think either have accomplished that, unfortunately.

    #21324
    Dxer1969
    Participant

    You are probably correct! The Dems have a better chance at unification in my opinion.

    #21327
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    There is plenty of time for that. We have no real urgency to band together prior to the general election.

    It starts when it starts, and it will run a long time. Long enough.

    Now is the time to maximize opportunities to combine all that we have seen into the best message possible. That is happening on the Dem side, as expected.

    On the Republican side? lol, they are still trying to figure out if they can live with Trump, and mark my words here, Trump is still figuring out how and if it wants to do this. He may not be the nominee. Exciting times coming up on the GOP side of the house!

    #21328
    Dxer1969
    Participant

    Indeed! I knew Trump would be the front runner! But perhaps not the nominee! Pretty funny when you think about it!

    #21330
    semoochie
    Participant

    Don’t they have to make him the nominee, if he has enough votes to win in the first round?

    #21331
    jr_tech
    Participant

    Not necessarily, they might possibly be able to change the rules.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436850/donald-trump-convention-revolt-explained

    #21333
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Yes, and Trump himself may want to bag on the nomination.

    It’s not at all clear he’s up to the task. Notice the funding and where it’s going? Take a good look at money behind Trump.

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