Flipping Washington's 3rd Congressional District

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This topic contains 13 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  missing_kskd 1 year, 4 months ago.

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  • #37733

    Andrew
    Participant

    I’m following the Democratic primary closely to see who will challenge Jaime Herrera Beutler in the fall. I don’t live in this district (or in Washington), but it is the closest political contest to where I live in Portland that has much national importance. I’m guessing Greg Walden’s seat in OR-2 is safe. WA-3 is probably less purple more red after redistricting post-2010 but a more likely Dem pick-up.

    I don’t know much about any of the three main Democratic primary challengers yet. I’m hoping to get to one of the candidate forums soon up there. I’m following all three of them on Facebook. But so far, Carolyn Long seems the most viable to me. I agree with her on health care (single payer would be great but not going to happen right now; let’s fix Obamacare instead).

    Thoughts on this race? Any of you live up there? Does any Democratic nominee have a chance against Beutler? I see she just voted (like Greg Walden) for the tough House immigration bill that went down. Wonder how that will play in her district?

    #37743

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Aren’t they nearly all up for reelection?

    Open primaries should be very interesting. Berniecrats are active, and have the field to play, and no real inhibitions on voting. Oregon has a very low bar, and it didn’t seem to have much impact.

    https://www.electlong.com/

    She’s within 4 points on some polls. However, she’s second in cash, with a repeat challenger business man loaning himself into first place. He makes that primary interesting.

    #37744

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Andrew, to our discussion:

    Long trails Herrera Beutler 29 percent to 49 percent on an initial ballot, the poll found. But that margin narrowed to 41 percent to 45 percent after respondents were read positive profiles of both candidates and two short messages. (Lake Research Partners declined to provide the polling language used in the survey to The Daily News.) Independents also shifted to Long by a net of 30 points during the survey, according to the polling firm.

    I sure would like to know what those short messages were.

    Winnable for Long, if she gets her platform in front of enough people.

    #37746

    Andrew
    Participant

    Oh, I forgot about WA’s open primary system. So the August primary will really be like a general election. Does make it quite interesting.

    #37747

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Right?

    My thoughts exactly. And we’ve got various approaches in play too.

    The money balance favors the incumbent, but it’s a race, IMHO.

    Trump can’t be helping much, though it is Camas. ?!?

    #37748

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Oh, I was going to mention the phone system built for Bernie back in 2016. I think the url was Berniepb.com

    That thing was potent. It could hit a few hundred calls an hour. Was kind of hoping it would get fired up again. IMHO, it had a big impact in Washington State last time around.

    Code and people working together could compete with money too.

    #37751

    Andrew
    Participant

    I’ve done my share of phone banking (low tech and high tech) for campaigns over the years. I suspect it has by now become of extremely limited value, no matter how a campaign does it. People are so sick of spam phone calls that many never answer their phones from unknown numbers anymore. Even back in 2000 many people often hated getting the phone calls – and that was before all of these spam calls were common.

    Social media seems a much better way to reach people nowadays. Even older folks are on it. And old-fashioned door to door canvasing will never go out of style and is most effective for these local races where people may not be paying close attention (unlike say a presidential candidate, where everyone is probably tired of politics by election day and people don’t want more politics coming to their doorsteps.)

    #37752

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Phone banks, linked to canvass efforts still pretty effective, but require software and more work.

    Agree Random calls are diminishing returns, though I do feel ordinary people making calls to other ordinary people, not so scripted may still deliver. But, something like a literature drop might deliver more, easier too. ???

    Interestingly, some really great results happened over SMS. Works for GOTV and organizing. IMHO, SMS has potential. Obama pioneered that with OFA, and younger people do not appear to mind, and will respond.

    I was quite impressed with both the Berners and the Net Neutrality efforts. Participated via SMS as both activist and communicator. Many people just full on used their number and name. I did, and it wasn’t abused at all.

    Thought that was amazing, and I keep in touch with a couple people from those efforts. That’s almost entirely text. I’ve only spoken a few times. Strange days, to me at least.

    #37753

    Master of Disaster
    Participant

    The Master of Disaster lives here, and is tired of getting postcards from Herrera Beutler’s office, stating they’ve been printed and mailed at taxpayer expense no less, telling constituents what she isn’t doing. After a quick glance, these usually go straight from the mailbox into recycling without ever making it into the house.

    For example, one of these postcards was about I-5 bridge tolls and how they would impact jobs. Um, hello, how about creating jobs in your own district?

    Have to give credit where credit is due, she was the reported final “no” vote on the original ‘replace-the-ACA-with-nothing’ legislation that caused House Republicans to scrap that idea. Probably had more to do with her known personal situation more than anything though.

    With that said, in the previous election the Master of Disaster voted for Jim Moeller (the Democratic candidate in the November 2016 election) based solely on the attack ads against him as they highlighted some things the Master of Disaster actually supports.

    #37772

    Andrew
    Participant

    So MoD, do you have a preference in the upcoming primary? I’m hoping to get up there for a candidate forum this week.

    #37858

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-house-district-14-primary-election

    That’s one to watch tonight. Progressive underdog solid incumbent, and internal polling indicates it’s in play.

    😀

    #37865

    Andrew
    Participant

    Well, Missing, your candidate won in NY. I wouldn’t get too cocky, though. I’m beginning to think this could be the “year of the woman” in this fall’s elections, and that may have helped her.

    I know nothing about the NY race – but now I know a lot more about the race up in Washington’s 3rd district. Tonight I went to the candidate forum (sort of a debate but not really) where the three most viable Democratic candidates – Carolyn Long, Dorothy Gasque, and David McDevitt – faced off at Jefferson Middle School; it was a standing-room-only crowd of more than 400 people.

    I had figured Long would be the candidate I’d probably favor (if I could vote in the 3rd) and that proved true. She is kind of the “Obama Democrat” in the race – a college professor (like Obama was), very middle-of-the-road and practical. She for example favors keeping and fixing the Affordable Care Act whereas the other two support some sort of single payer system (Gasaque supports Medicare for All, McDevitt supports some “Social Security-like system” instead but doesn’t call it Medicare for All.”) This is really the big issue the three of them don’t agree on; on almost everything else they agreed.

    McDevitt is kind of the white-haired “establishment liberal” who has clearly been involved in the local Democratic party for a long time. He ran against Beutler in 2016 lost. I can’t understand why the Democrats would want to nominate him again, especially with two women running in a year that is favoring women candidates. He had a lot of visible supporters at the forum, far more than the other two.

    Gasque is clearly the Berniecrat in the race. She echoed a lot of Bernie’s key talking points about the influence of big money in politics, Wall Street, Medicare for All, blah blah blah. She also is passionate about the recent immigration controversies and mentioned “racism” numerous times in discussing Trump’s policies. She also mentioned Ocasio-Cortez’s victory in New York (results became known at the end of the candidate forum) as an indication that she could do the same in WA-3 – though because of WA’s open primary, that seems pretty unlikely to me (for her to be top two). And Long is the one who leads the others in polling, getting close to Beutler in some polls.

    As much as *I* like Long, I also wonder if a college professor can win in WA-3 against Beutler. Long did pretty well in the forum, I thought, but I’m not sure how well she’ll appeal to the independent-conservative types she’ll need to steal from Beutler.

    #37871

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Long needs volunteers at this point. She is uo against money and name recognition.

    Just got done looking at Ocasio’s rundown. Almost no TV. Big ground. She got almost the whole district canvassed and employed “new” media and SMS / cell phone calls.

    She did the work needed to work the election. That is the big message for others. So many campaigns are late, or not aligned with the election.

    Thats a brief interview with the basics behind that campaign.

    IMHO long can win. Comes down to organizing vs money and a name. I do not know the state of Longs canvassing.

    Yes, women. Bernie has major league support from younger progressives, majority women. And they are running. Good. I am sure that helped, but she did the work and with a resonant platform.

    Looks to me like Berniecrats may just have a caucus.

    #37872

    missing_kskd
    Participant

    Say this one wins the general. She has a good shot.

    Once in office, she will be there sans the money. That is the point, and a party conflict we have yet to see play out.

    How will she handle the party fund raising machinery? You won’t see that discussed anywhere. Oliver did a segment on all that. (I am amazed he did that one.)

    I will be following winners closely.

    In general, the third way, new dempcrat move to take money, match Republicans, won elections. Got us social progress, but at the cost of representation for labor, common peeps, the poor.

    I will go way out on a limb and suggest how new Berniecrats manage that call center vs spending time in their district will tell us a lot about the success or failure behind progressives move to take it left.

    It’s about the commits linked to the money, resources a Congressperson needs or wants to staff up, and garnering votes bein present: town halls, issue rallies, events, and maintaining a reasonable ground game.

    Where it becomes more about the money, progressive ideas will get diluted. Where it’s about the people, they will strengthen.

    Maybe over a beer one day… let’s just say I’ve had a few chats that validate those dynamics.

    Party dues and conflicting economic policy goals are the dynamic to watch.

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