Fake polling again?

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  • #47157
    paulwalker
    Participant

    In 2016, many Trump supporters gave fake answers to pollsters, leading to the polls being completely wrong, and of course we know the result.

    Is this happening again? The metrics are somewhat different, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing is happening in 2020. The lesson is, don’t believe the big Biden lead. It may not be as large as has been presented.

    #47158
    lastday
    Participant

    People “lie” to pollsters, or they legitimately change their minds. But unless someone shows evidence that pollsters are deliberately artificially manipulating poll data, I hate to call it “fake”. There’s a little too much application of that word in the current political climate.

    #47159
    Andrew
    Participant

    Paul: “In 2016, many Trump supporters gave fake answers to pollsters, leading to the polls being completely wrong, and of course we know the result.”

    I don’t agree that the reason for the wrong predictions about the 2016 election was because “people lied to pollsters.”

    #47161
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Then why were the polls so wrong?

    #47164
    semoochie
    Participant

    I don’t have the information in front of me but my understanding is that they weren’t all that far off in the battleground states. Assuming a fair election, the inevitable increase in death rates should seal Trumps fate, as long as we all vote! Just don’t get complacent.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 3 days ago by semoochie.
    #47167
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    drumpf had no track record as a politician last time. His track record as a businessman was awful. His track record as a husband was awful. Yet, many people saw Hillary as part of the Clinton slime and ignored her resume in favor of a candidate that wouldn’t show his financials, wouldn’t show his higher learning transcripts and blamed others for all of those failures in business.

    This time around, those same folks have had almost four years of drumpf’s performance to think about.

    It’s a no brainer. The polls are trending no where near where they were four years ago when Hillarys emails and the investigation looming over her numbers

    What I see is much clearer than four years ago. This election to me will prove whether or not elections are accurate. They’ll never be fair because Republicans will continue (and have always) done their best to repress the vote but in recent decades the influence of foreign money and foreign meddling in the process itself has increased (cyber) in influence. If drumpf gets soundly defeated, the process is validated for me. If he wins a second term, the notion that we are a democracy dies. I say this because of math and science, my two strongest suits, beg me to realize that the only way drumpf can win is by cheating and election day he will either succeed or fail, because he’s not going to win the popular vote nationally. An electoral victory is his only path (as it was last time when he had fewer negatives weighing him down) to victory and the only way he got it last time and the only way he’ll get it this time is cheating. However I really do believe the anti drumpf vote is going to be so overwhelming that it may be impossible to cheat the election system this time around. You can’t change gravity.

    I see a lot of scared people out there. After all, many of us are Americans because our great grandparents fled this kind of political bullshit a hundred years ago and came here.

    If you think there is unrest in the big metros now, just wait and see what happens if drumpf successfully cheats the system again.

    If you want to do something about it, VOTE. And if you’re one of those jerks that have all these qualifiers to vote against drumpf like who will be the VP pick, you don’t get it, And if you don’t get it by now, you never will. The blind allegiance folks that aren’t willing to vote for the best interest of all Americans (and I do mean all) and would rather four or more than four years of the most corrupt administration in the history of these United States, you will seal your own destiny.This election isn’t about drumpf nor is it about Joe Biden. It’s about you, and with massive turnout there will be no hole card drumpf can play to win.


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    #47168
    Deane Johnson
    Participant

    Biden is so far ahead there’s no need for Democrats to even bother voting in this election.

    #47169
    Jeffrey Kopp
    Participant

    Hah!

    #47170
    Andrew
    Participant

    “Then why were the polls so wrong?”

    The national polls were actually really close. They predicted Clinton would win by a few million votes, and she did. Obviously, though, the popular vote doesn’t mean much. The swing state polls were a little less accurate but not much. A reading of state polls shows many of them were very close, within the margin of error.

    The big thing that threw off pollsters in a few of the swing states was that they underestimated turnout in rural counties that had not turned out well in past elections. Trump inspired people to vote who hadn’t voted in a long time in these counties.

    Pollsters always have to make assumptions about which voting blocks will vote – they are doing a lot of statistical analysis on a relatively small sample in each poll. If a voter is from a rural county in PA, what’s the chance he will turn out in November? Based on 2008 and 2012, only X percent…so they weigh the samples from those types of counties that way. In some states like PA, they were wrong about that.

    I have no doubt that some Trump voters lied to pollsters in 2016. But there’s no evidence that it was significant in fooling pollsters in a significant way. Romney voters in 2012 probably lied to pollsters, too.

    #47171
    Andrew
    Participant

    What was really “wrong” in 2016 were all of these pundits making “X percent chance of winning” predictions in favor of Clinton. Some of this was just confirmation bias: people could simply not conceive of the idea that Trump would win. People making these predictions weighed not just polls but other factors…but because they assumed Clinton was going to win, they probably were unconsciously choosing things to back up their argument in favor of her winning.

    I believe that many voters who preferred Clinton to Trump, even though they weren’t crazy about her, didn’t put much effort into voting for her – everyone says she’s going to win anyway, so why bother waiting in line? In PA, people had to wait for hours to vote in some places, and there was no early voting there. (There is now.) If you had a job and couldn’t get time off or had kids to take care of and you really didn’t like Clinton very much…and everyone had been saying how Clinton had it in the bag, would you wait in line for three hours to vote for her?

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