Electoral vote predictions

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 92 total)
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  • #48606
    Andrew
    Participant

    Brian: “I think Biden wins the popular vote and the EC, but if the SCOTUS upholds Trump’s challenge to the legitimacy of the election (which I absolutely guarantee will happen), we won’t have to worry about any more Presidential elections; our democracy is done.”

    The Court will only rule on lower court cases – e.g. Trump sues in PA or WI challenging certain ballots as legitimate (e.g. arriving after election day). But it will really come down to the margins; not every vote thrown out by a Court decision will be a vote for Biden. If Biden wins PA and WI with a big enough margin, the Court decisions will just reduce his margins. Sure, if those states turn out to be super close, and Biden would win only by say one state, then sure, the Court could potentially flip the election. (Though I believe, despite what some people think, that even five conservatives on the Court would be reluctant to overturn an election unless it were a case of massive, obvious fraud.)

    Even then, what ultimately matters is who controls Congress on January 6, 2021 and maybe how many delegations each party controls in the House. If there is dispute about conflicting slates of electors, the Congress would decide which ones to accept. the Supreme Court would have no involvement at that point. If Democrats flip the Senate and keep the House, they, not the Court, would choose the electors in a conflict.

    #48607
    semoochie
    Participant

    I think this will be a non-starter if Biden wins. The Supreme Court is just not as corrupt as Trump thinks it is and a significant win will see republicans running in droves to the exits!

    #48610
    Andrew
    Participant

    Right. This 6-3 Court can do plenty of damage without Trump as president, all on their own…

    #48611
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    Remember we thought Hilary was a shoe in 4 years ago…Anything can happen, especially with the crooks in the conservative states that cut down on voting….

    #48612
    semoochie
    Participant

    What is the criminal penalty for making it impossible for people to vote, on a large scale? This sounds like a direct relative of treason!

    #48615
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Here’s another likely outcome: drumpf flees. He’s already suggested he may have to.

    Setting aside for the moment his conduct as president, Trump faces a financial and legal reckoning of immense proportions as soon as he leaves office. If he loses, he will no longer have protection from an avalanche of charges and lawsuits against him, his family and the Trump Organization. His years of alleged tax evasion will be officially scrutinized—and far more publicly than before he held office. He will no longer be able to claim (falsely) that his taxes are still “under audit” and unavailable. Trump properties and investments could be frozen, seized or plummet in value. The true nature of his extraordinary personal financial debt—recently reported as $421 million—will be exposed, and his likely foreign creditors revealed. Surely adding to his worries was the announcement on October 15 by the Internal Revenue Service that it is indicting Robert Brockman, a wealthy Houston software magnate, in its largest tax-fraud case ever. The action against Brockman shows that the IRS is not afraid to go after big fish who attempt to circumvent their tax obligations.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/28/is-president-donald-trump-a-flight-risk-433313

    #48617
    Andrew
    Participant

    Nah – Trump won’t flee. He may owe millions, but he has enough assets to pay for lawyers for years to keep himself out of jail. No prosecutor, even in NY, is going to frog march a former president of the United States, even Donald Trump, in handcuffs into custody. He’ll be able to tie up cases in court for years and/or negotiate settlements in the form of fines.

    Unless hard evidence emerges that Trump actively aided the Russians, he’ll never serve a day in jail.

    #48623
    semoochie
    Participant

    There is way more than that on him, just that we know about!

    #48624
    semoochie
    Participant

    Yesterday, I posted this:

    “I saw an analysis that showed the possible spreads for the two candidates. The most that Trump could possibly get was 295 and the least for Biden was well into the 200s. If Biden wins the solid blue states, the probable blue states and SOME of the leaning blue states, he wins without the toss-up states!”

    Today, I saw an update that showed that if Biden won all the solid blue and all the likely blue states, he would win, without any of the leaning blue or toss-up states! That’s pretty encouraging! We just need to vote, to make it happen.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by semoochie.
    #48625
    Deane Johnson
    Participant

    Andrew is correct, as he frequently is. You guys are dreaming about what will happen to Trump in the future.

    Do you really think Biden wants to drag the Trump era out endlessly after he is inaugurated?

    #48628
    Andrew
    Participant

    semoochie: “Today, I saw an update that showed that if Biden won all the solid blue and all the likely blue states, he would win, without any of the leaning blue or toss-up states! That’s pretty encouraging! We just need to vote, to make it happen.”

    Well, it’s been obvious since 2016 that if Biden were to win all of the Hillary states from 2016 but win PA, MI,and WI – all of which were very close last time – Biden would win the electoral college.

    Biden COULD win with only two of the three if he wins Florida…or possibly some other supposed “toss-up states” like MI, WI, and Iowa and Arizona and still lose PA. But his best shot of winning is probably just winning PA, MI, and WI, which were decided in 2016 by about 77,000 votes total.

    #48629
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Biden could lose Florida but still win with three of these four states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania. The Midwest will decide this.

    #48636
    semoochie
    Participant

    Andrew, in 2016 we didn’t have multiple state governments trying to prevent us from voting! It needs to be a huge win!

    #48638
    Andrew
    Participant

    Yes, semoochie, there was most certainly voter suppression in 2016. E.g. in Wisconsin new voter ID laws reduced voter participation especially among African Americans.

    #48639
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    One thing that does concern me is the proposed violence planned if either side loses. Our country has never been split as much as it is now.

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