One year before the 2016 election I’m willing to say that Hillary will be the Dem nominiee. Not yet sure who will win the crazy contest of becoming the GOP nominee, but I don’t think it matters. Electoral math will play out, and it will be similar to 2008.
Ohio and Florida? Remember, the Republican ticket could potentially be Rubio-Kasich. That would give Republicans a good shot at winning both of those states (Obama in 2012 won Ohio by only 1.9% and Florida by only 0.9%). That’s a gain of +47 electoral votes for Republicans vs. the 2012 map, where Obama had 332 electoral votes. A loss of 47 EV would give the Democrat 285.
If Republicans wind up leading easily in Florida and Ohio because their Senator and Governor are on the P-VP ticket, they could pour more resources into other swing states instead of spending as much time as in the past in Florida and Ohio.
The loss of Virginia (13 electoral votes) would bring it down to 272. That means either New Mexico, Nevada, or Colorado would put the Republican over the top.