Election model, accurate for many past elections, predicts Biden landslide

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Viewing 12 posts - 16 through 27 (of 27 total)
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  • #47598
    Andrew
    Participant

    So you’re saying you are privy to internal polls from the Biden campaign that aren’t public?

    #47599
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Of course not. But I am hearing this from trusted news sources. Atleast ones I trust.

    #47600
    semoochie
    Participant

    Paul, if it’s four more years, you can add two or three zeros to that! If he leaves office, he goes to prison! He’ll just stay there and eventually turn the reins over to Ivanka!

    #47602
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Rich Lowry:

    <drumpf’s approval rating>”has stabilized in the low 40s. Election-watcher Harry Enten points out that no president since Harry Truman has won with anything like Trump’s negative net approval rating. Truman won at –6, while incumbents who lost (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush) averaged out at about –13, roughly where Trump’s number is. The presidents who won reelection averaged an approval rating of +23.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/08/24/why-trumps-losing/#slide-1

    Updated 8 hours ago:

    Biden has a 90% chance of winning the electoral college.

    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

    drumpf’s small bump is not closing the gap. Biden still leads in Michigan (where a single poll showed drumpf ahead by a few points yesterday). Biden leads in Florida (that’s a big one) and Pennsylvania and Wisonsin and Virginia . . .

    Biden’s team panicking? ROFLMAO. The only folks saying that are all at Faux news. Biden has shown consistent strength and leading margins, unlike Hillary whose numbers went up and down back in ’16.

    The polls were not all wrong last time. But more importantly drumpf was a newbie without any experience. Now he’s got four years of abject failure as a leader staring him in the face. He knows he’s losing and he’s pulling out all the stops.

    Biden’s way out in front. Why else would drumpf be trying so hard to fuck up the election? Because he knows there is only so much Putin can do for him.

    Paul, it doesn’t sound like you believe in Democracy. I guess you may never really have. Your Faux connected source, whoever it is, may fool you but doesn’t fool us.

    Yep, I guess drumpf’s 10% chance to win (see above) has some all worried. Well, nothing is for certain, but if it comes down to forming an opinion based on gathering as many of the facts as one can, I’d sure like to see some of those facts that would bring out a conclusion that is different from what I have stated.

    Stick a fork in drumpf, he’s done.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/27/former-trump-officials-lose-403926

    #47608
    edselehr
    Participant

    fivethirtyeight.com puts Biden at a 69% chance of winning – about the same place they put Hillary heading into Election Day 2016. If Biden can’t strengthen his position with voters – and surge turnout – it could easily be a loss for him, or a marginal win that Trump will contest so hard that Florida 2000 will look like a romp in the park.

    #47610
    Brianl
    Participant

    Edselehr – I’m increasingly convinced that it doesn’t matter what the election result is (unless Trump wins the Electoral College outright, like 2016) – it will make 2000 look like a walk in the park.

    If Trump gets away with voter suppression and the invalidating of the votes necessary to steal the election, our democracy is over. We will never recover.

    #47611
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Andy said: “Paul, it sounds like you don’t believe in democracy (never have)”

    What are you talking about? Please explain what wording I used that would lead you to believe I don’t believe in democracy.

    #47616
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    I have to say I think the racial and civil unrest does nothing but help Trump moving forward. In fact, the Trump campaign knows this and they are making gains with voters who are sick of the violence according to recent polls.

    As an Oregonian and a Portland suburb dweller I’m sick and tired of the nightly protests/riots here. We are a national example for what scares white voters. It’s becoming embarrassing.

    I fully support the BLM cause but my fear is the continued mayhem plays right into Trumps hands.

    Combine that with the US Mail issues I have no doubt Trump is in a position to steal the election, combined with all the other voter suppression methods.

    And regarding the mail, the delays are real. I use US mail on a regular basis with clients and we are seeing delays of 2+ weeks for mail going from Seattle to Portland.

    #47617
    Andrew
    Participant

    I supported the BLM protests in Portland too – when they started. And when Trump sent in the federal thugs to stir up trouble and incite more violence, I supported standing up to get rid of them.

    But the BLM protests (here in Portland, anyway) have devolved into “F**k the police!” more than any movement for meaningful, pragmatic change. We’ve had anarchists in Portland for a while, disrupting city council meetings and trying to cause trouble, and it’s clear they’ve successfully hijacked these protests. How many nights have we had “protesters” breaking into police buildings and starting fires? What happened to “peaceful protests?” It’s hard for me to believe that most of the protesters don’t support these actions.

    I agree that the violence at protests across America could hurt the Biden campaign. He has a tough divide to bridge there – he has clearly come out against “defunding the police” which would make him unwelcome at any of these BLM protests here. But many of his potential voters are African Americans who support BLM. And in 2016, African American voter turn-out was down significantly from 2012 – in such a close election, pick a reason from several that Clinton lost, but this was clearly one of them. If African Americans don’t come out for Biden in droves like they did for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Biden is doomed.

    But yeah, I am sick and tired of the “protests” too – I support peaceful protests but these clearly are no longer that. At best, they are no longer achieving anything positive to support police reform; at worst, they are a distraction helping Trump in November.

    #47618
    semoochie
    Participant

    Biden never said he wanted to defund the police! That’s a Trump lie! If Trump wins and the republicans hold the senate, they will control the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government, game, set, match! Everyone who disagrees will be labeled a traitor! It will be the end of the United States of America! There will be nothing to do but crawl under the bed and wait to die!

    #47621
    Andrew
    Participant

    Right. I said, Biden has clearly come out against “defunding the police.”

    #47625
    semoochie
    Participant

    I’m sorry, Andrew! I had to read that over three times, before realizing that’s exactly what you said! I must be approaching middle age. 🙂

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