Election model, accurate for many past elections, predicts Biden landslide

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  • #46518
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-lose-election-joe-biden-2020-economy-coronavirus-a9525131.html

    Well, there may just be an upside to this coronavirus.

    This is one thing Trump is not good at. Normally a national crisis helps the current President.

    #46519
    Brianl
    Participant

    Usually, a national crisis sees the president galvanizing all Americans together. George W. Bush’s initial 9/11 response is case in point; it was Dubya’s finest hour.

    Trump is doing everything in his power to further tear the fabric of America apart. He is using the pandemic to further his own agenda and pad his own wallet. And even though there is a vocal minority (those arming themselves and forcing themselves into governors houses, etc), they are just that – the minority.

    As sick as it sounds, a part of me hopes that this sticks around a while, for one sole purpose – we MUST get Trump out of the White House, no matter what it takes.

    #46520
    Andrew
    Participant

    If the election were held tomorrow, I have no doubt Biden would win in a landslide.

    But it’s not being held tomorrow.

    A lot could change between now and November.

    Yes, it seems pretty likely Biden will win the popular vote. The electoral college may be tougher.

    Republicans have shown that they no longer care about the norms of government and that power is the only thing they care about. Look at the way they’ve turned Wisconsin’s government into a zombie government where the governor holds little power and the legislature and right-wing judiciary hold sway. I wouldn’t put it past them, if Wisconsin voters narrowly for Biden, to hold a special legislative session awarding the electors to Trump. That would have been unthinkable four years ago, but now it doesn’t seem so far-fetched.

    Republicans in other states are also actively trying to make it as hard to vote as possible in November. E.g. Texas. Even though Texas going to Biden seems unlikely (but may be really close), a senate seat is up for grabs there. And Democrats need to re-take the Senate too, obviously.

    #46525
    Chris_Taylor
    Participant

    “Republicans have shown that they no longer care about the norms of government and that power is the only thing they care about.

    Truth.

    It’s getting harder and harder for me to trust a voting system in the hands of anything that resembles GOP politics. Don’t get me wrong, DEMS have had their issues. The fall of the GOP has been so hard to watch. Mark Hatfield and others like him would not even recognize their party. Hell, Bush 1 and 2 have said as much.

    If Biden can pull off a victory in Nov, what I fear most are those months leading up to his inauguration. So many feelings of helplessness for what lies ahead.

    #46526
    Andrew
    Participant

    It is going to be a scary time for the next year or so, Chris, for various reasons. I fear a legitimate Trump victory, obviously, but I also fear a narrow Biden win that Trump tries to steal with lawsuits in states and Republican legislatures trying to flip te will of their state’s voters. Nancy Pelosi has expressed this fear a few times – that it’s crucial that Democrats win a decisive victory in November, not just a squeaker. Then it will be much harder for them to steal or or try to delegitimize it.

    And even if Biden wins and the Democrats re-take the Senate, I don’t see how things are going to wonderful in January (even if we all breathe a big sigh of relief). These people aren’t going away, and they are going to keep making it hard for the Democrats to clean up Trump’s amazing messes and try to get the country on track again. I try not to think about it too much…

    #46528
    edselehr
    Participant

    I hope and pray that if the Dems take the WH, Senate and keep the House, that one of their first order of businesses is to reestablish and strengthen the checks and balances of government, even if it is to the detriment of their own ability to carry out their own policy agenda. Controlling power at the federal level – and specifically, reigning in the power of the president that has been building since FDR – is more important than any particular policy position, be it left or right.

    #46533
    Chris_Taylor
    Participant

    I’m trying not to think about it too much, Andrew. I’ve cut way back on my news intake and that has really helped. I’m seeking a more positive, do what I can do and control, and not control what I can’t.

    What I do know is the white priviledged people (me included) are feeling what many of our black sisters and brothers, along with every other person of color and women – have been living under for a long time.

    I like what Richard Rohr wrote this morning in his daily email: “The dominant group—in any country or context—normally cannot see its own lies. We have to pay attention to whomever is saying “I can’t breathe” to recognize the biases at work.”

    #46534
    Andrew
    Participant

    Edselehr, there is no way that Biden could “reign in” the power of the presidency to constrain future presidents from doing exactly what Trump did, again, under similar circumstances. Biden could simply not use the same kind of power Trump has, but there’s nothing to stop another Trump from doing the same thing Trump did. Probably only a Constitutional Amendment (or two) would be needed to clarify power structures to make clear where the boundaries of power really are – vs. being constrained by civic norms as has worked in the US for 220 years til this assclown.

    The real reason Trump has been able to get away with so much is the Republican Senate. It is they also who have put aside everything in pursuit of power. The ultimate constraint in the power of the presidency is supposed to be impeachment, and Republicans showed they aren’t willing to impeach their own president pretty much no matter what – party and power takes precedence over country with them. How do you change THAT?

    It’s really the voters who need to punish Republicans at the ballot box if we are ever going to change their behavior in the future – but most Republican voters completely support what Trump and the Republicans have done. We have a hopelessly polarized, divided country. Joe Biden being elected and trying to do a few things differently isn’t going to change that.

    #46535
    semoochie
    Participant

    The conspiracy was an illegal act, so anyone involved in it could be charged, as well as those who aided and abetted said crime! As soon as Trump goes, so does Barr and the rule of law will return, so expect a lot of prison sentences for those involved.

    #46537
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    “most Republican voters completely support what Trump and the Republicans have done.”

    They are made up of two groups, the stupid and the wealthy. Both are growing demographics. Didn’t drumpf just give some big multi million dollar government contract for masks to his former assistant associate somebody or other who has no experience in manufacturing or resourcing medical products. The corruption the GOP has put in place is vast, powerful and out of control.

    Seriously. COVID 19 has become a political football and the election is the Super Bowl.

    The biggest issue right now is that it’s still 6 months to Election Day, and we just don’t know what the biggest issue then will be. Wall Street is booming and unemployment hasn’t been this high since The Great Depression. Something’s going to crack from the stress. The Republicans are viciously attacking the voting process to try and pull the same end around they did last time with victories in key districts where they have Republican legislatures passing laws to make it harder for the poor to vote. Even with that in mind, and barring unforeseen events, the GOP is worried. Their own polling has told them comeuppance time may be at hand.

    #46538
    semoochie
    Participant

    After fact checking Trump regarding his claims about mail-in voting, it comes out that in this year’s republican Florida primary, he voted by mail!

    #46541
    Andrew
    Participant

    Trump is a fraud, so maybe there is some validity to his claim that some voting by mail is fraudulent.

    #47595
    paulwalker
    Participant

    It is obvious now that it will not be a Biden landslide. The truth is Trump has all the momentum just 65 days out. The polls are just as wrong as they were in ‘16. The internal polls are telling a different story and the Biden campaign knows it and they are panicking. Expect four more years for the incumbent. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am.

    #47596
    Andrew
    Participant

    Paul, do you have a source for this notion that the Biden campaign is “panicking?”

    Are you really surprised a campaign would get a bounce the day after their convention?

    Biden got better ratings for his DNC speech than Trump got with his RNC speech. Even Mitt Romney got more viewers in 2012 than Trump did last night.

    24.6 Million viewers for Biden’s speech (12 networks broadcasting)
    23.8 Million viewers for Trump’s speech (13 networks broadcasting – 9 million viewers of them on Fox News alone)
    34 Million tuned into Trump’s 2016 speech.

    #47597
    paulwalker
    Participant

    Yes, internal polls which are not the same as media polls. But no can’t offer specific link at this time.

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