All the statistical analysis of electoral college votes etc does not bring me much comfort. Pretty much every “expert” got 2016 wrong. It could happen again. And if it isn’t a Biden landslide, Trump will fight it to the bitter end.
Yeah, that’s really my biggest worry at this point: that Trump could still steal it, even if Biden really wins. Today’s Supreme Court non-ruling on the counting of ballots in PA is troubling: they basically ruled 4-4 not to hear the case brought by Republicans on whether the PA Supreme Court correctly ruled that ballots received up to 3 days after election day would still be counted if postmarked by election day. Once Amy Coney Barrett is seated (probably before the election) she would tilt that 5-4 if the question again comes before the Court in the timeframe that matters – and they could rule to force PA to throw out any ballot received after election day. If PA is really close again, that could be very important.
If he steals it and it stands up in the new lopsided SCOTUS, Democracy would be severely damaged. That is the fear of the majority. However, if you take into consideration what pollsters have done in the wake of their errors in ’16 to correct their inaccuracies and if you believe in science and mathematics, there is good cause for guarded optimism about the election results. A few facts really stand out, mainly drumpf has never had over a 50% approval rating. His ’16 victory included razor thin margins in swing states that he most likely will lose or every polling firm will be out of business.
But plenty of pollsters, including Jensen and Gary Langer of Langer Research, who conducts some polls for ABC News/Washington Post, also said that this year’s polling wasn’t really keeping them up at night. “I feel pretty good about the polling in 2020 largely because the polling was so accurate in 2018, and I believe we are still fundamentally in the same political climate that we were then,” Jensen said. “The low level of undecideds in the presidential race also greatly reduces the chances of a dramatic late shift in the numbers.”