July 18, 2016 at 2:38 pm #21662
Of the 34 seats up for grabs, 24 are held by Republicans. Democrats need to net four seats to win control of the Senate if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and five seats if she doesn’t. And of the eight seats most likely to change hands in 2016, six are held by Republicans in states that President Obama won twice, and one is held by a Democrat in a state that former President George W. Bush won twice. You can expect seats to flip from red to blue in Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin. That’s three of the needed four. The fourth seat could come from Nevada, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire. Those three states are TCTC right now, but the Senate races often track the success or lack of performance by the presidential candidate.
It’s quite likely donald’s post convention bump may be small since he’s already doing well in the hard red states and the swing states usually don’t provide big swings until after both conventions are over.
I do predict the Senate will flip back to Democrats by one or at most two seats (not counting the Democratic VP candidate).
I don’t think the GOP will lose a majority in the non functional House but it looks like Paul Ryan could be in trouble so there might be a new SOH.
Hillary will win the presidency easily. I still don’t think Trump will garner much more then 150 electoral votes.
Bottom line: The GOP House will continue to block any legislation until the midterm. That may be the end of the conservative movement in America, which is already on shaky ground. You see, dork and F&Bacon, there just aren’t enough old white racist misogynistic men in the country anymore to win a national election. I suggest you continue to put your hopes into what the media feeds you which is almost as devoid of logic and intelligence as the crap you guys keep posting.
I’ll be holding in my laughter for now, but it doesn’t look good for the future of conservatism.
Trump isn’t killing conservatism. Trump is rising because movement conservatism is dead as a politically viable force in American politics. We are witnessing a great realignment of American politics due primarily to demographic shifts. These shifts were driven by a half-century of liberal immigration policy. The result is that ethnic Europeans are a rapidly shrinking share of the American population, with East Asians, Middle Easterners, and Hispanics making up the difference.
Ideological conservatives comprise perhaps 40% of white people and no meaningful share of nonwhites (nonwhite “conservatives” tend to favor things like purging the South of its history and open borders, i.e., they don’t favor conserving). Last year, only 40% of babies in America were white, so unless the National Review crowd has some secret plan to take over all of our universities that we don’t know about, we’re looking at maybe 20% of the population being “conservative” in a generation’s time.
The conservative movement in America is dead.July 19, 2016 at 1:08 pm #21697proud2baconservativeSpectator
I think a Trump victory will have a coattails effect which will retain the Senate. I’m going against conventional wisdom and predicting the Republicans will make a gain end up 55 Senators. I predict Trump will win 305 electoral votes.
I think it’s premature to predict the death of conservatism, especially if its membership is defined by skin color. Skin color does not preclude anyone from believing in economic freedom or having compassion for the unborn.July 19, 2016 at 1:17 pm #21698AmusParticipant
I think a Trump victory will have a coattails effect which will retain the Senate
Of course you do.November 9, 2016 at 12:36 am #24661proud2baconservativeSpectator
Check out my electoral vote prediction above.
I think I nailed it.
I didn’t do so hot on the Senate. I failed to do my homework on that one. But the Republicans retained control. Hopefully Trump will make a wise Supreme Court appointment while he has the Senate.November 9, 2016 at 12:51 am #24663edselehrParticipant
Bacon, I concede your predictions look like they will come as close as anyone on this board. Congratulations.
I am curious what you were seeing that basically no one else was seeing – not conservative or liberal media, not average spectators of this election, not most poll watchers. I believe Trump supporters stayed optimistic *despite* the polls that were telling even them they were likely to lose.
Despite sheer optimism, what informed your prediction?November 9, 2016 at 1:21 am #24665
I just finished a plate of crow. It took me two hours to swallow all of it.
Re: SCOTUS The Democrats will now do what the Republicans have done so many times . . . filibuster. There will be no easy path for a trump nominee if he/she is openly pro-life.
Three reasons why Clinton lost:
2. Clinton not campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin.
3. there ARE enough angry fat racist homophobic xenophobic misogynistic hateful under educated white men in this country to put an ill equipped egomaniac in the White House.
trump is now going to find out just how difficult it is going to be to get anything done in a divided nation represented by a divided Congress. He pissed off and grossed out a lot of people (especially women) to rile up his fat white electorate and now he’s going to find out that many of the people that really do the work of government are female and minorities who will be anxious to make his stay in the White House as full of disappointment as the GOP leaders did to Obama.
The market is going to have a major correction, it’s already happening.November 9, 2016 at 10:34 am #24692radiodorkSpectator
Wow talk about a sore loser!! Get over it Andy, the people spoke and they didn’t want Hillary. So it’s time to put on your big boy pants and be a little more welcoming to President Donald J Trump.November 9, 2016 at 10:41 am #24693NotalentParticipant
Link to Maureen Dowd this morning:November 9, 2016 at 11:01 am #24696bookemdonoParticipant
Technically, more people voted for Hillary, but thanks to the electoral college, it just didn’t work in her favor.November 9, 2016 at 12:01 pm #24701Alfredo_TParticipant
Indeed, this was an extremely close election. The popular vote did favor Clinton by 0.2%. See: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/presidentNovember 9, 2016 at 12:13 pm #24702bookemdonoParticipant
Perhaps its time the electoral college go the way of the powdered wig.November 9, 2016 at 12:39 pm #24704LurkingGrendelParticipant
I don’t think that’s the answer. There’s a number of good reasons to say with the system we have.
Prior to last night you would never hear a Democrat make that kind of suggestion. I don’t think today is the day to start, either. I think you kind of have to take the good with the bad.
Having said that, when literally one half of the country did not vote for you, it speaks to a need to govern in something other than a unilateral and confrontational manner.November 9, 2016 at 12:49 pm #24706
Actually it’s one half of those who voted which is never much more than half of eligible voters. So in essence, it’s really about a 1/4 of eligible voters that elect a President.
(In 2012 there were 241 million people of voting age, but only 129.1 million actually cast votes for president — a turnout rate of just 53.6 percent).November 9, 2016 at 12:54 pm #24707
“Wow talk about a sore loser!! Get over it Andy, the people spoke and they didn’t want Hillary.”
No, dork, you get over it. Trump won a narrow victory and lost the popular vote. Two facts that you are not going to get to change. Sore? No, just disappointed that there are enough asswipes like yourself in this country that have their heads so far up their ass that they don’t know how dangerous a short fused egomaniac president can be. And without 60 votes in the Senate, the trump presidency is doomed for at least two years after which his lack of performance will hurt him in the mid term. You need to study some history, maybe get a G.E.D. or go to community college and “read a book about economics” so you can be as smart as Bacon.November 9, 2016 at 2:29 pm #24718HerbSpectator
Upon losing, turn over the chess board and swear at your opponent.
So much for liberals being even-handed and tolerant.
P.S. Your schadenfreude says more about you than those with whom you disagree.
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