Coming soon: The Next Republican Incited Recession

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  • #24888
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Check any history book. You will find that:

    Under Democratic administrations, the stock market does better.
    Under Democratic administrations, the economy grows at a faster pace.
    Under Democratic administrations, consumer confidence is higher.
    Under Democratic administrations, the deficit is cut much more efficiently.

    Since 1947, there have been 11 official recessions, totaling 49 recessionary quarters. Of those 49 quarters, just eight occurred under Democratic presidents, compared to 41 under Republicans. So, over the past 65 years, quarters in recession were about five times more common under a Republican president than under a Democratic president.

    Looking at how many recessions started under Republicans, the difference is even more stark. Of the 11 recessions since 1947, nine under Republicans, compared to just two under Democrats.

    Sources:

    C-SPAN, 2015 New Hampshire Democratic Party State Convention, Sept. 19, 2015

    National Bureau of Economic Research, “U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions,” accessed Sept. 22, 2015

    Princeton University, “Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration,” July 2014

    #24893
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    If the broad strokes of the tax policy Donald Trump outlined during the campaign end up being implemented, you can virtually count on a recession. That, and the deficit spiraling into numbers the likes of which make the current numbers quaint in comparison.

    There was wide spread consensus about that outcome expressed by an array of respected and non partisan economic experts before the election.

    All of which were, of course, discounted and dismissed by all of the “experts” among Donald Trump’s supporters and the conservative media.

    Let’s hope they’re right. No pun intended.

    #24906
    Vitalogy
    Participant

    The massive and unprecedented sell off of US Treasuries since the election is the first indication of recession. And while I lost on my election predictions, I’m winning on my prediction of what would happen if Trump was elected. Bond yields will spike. And spike they have.

    As a result, buying a home in the last week has increased by a lot. Same with car buyers. And worst off all, same for the US! We run our government off of selling debt, and we now have to pay our new investors a higher rate to borrow that money.

    Anything that interrupts the housing market for the worse is bad news for everyone. As the housing market goes, so does the economy. And newsflash, the housing market has been doing pretty well the last 4 years which is a big reason why the economy has recovered so well.

    I feel like I’ve seen this movie before.

    #24909
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    The last time the US had a Republican House, Senate, and President was the year Hoover was elected in Nov 28. Within a year we were into the Depression. Time will tell.

    #24911
    Langston
    Participant

    Republicans had control of House, Senate and Presidency during 108th and 109th congresses (2003-2007).

    #24918
    Andy Brown
    Participant

    Followed immediately by The Great Recession beginning in December 2007. Not to even mention the first Dubya recession in 2001.

    http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/50449f8369bedd020c000009-960/debt-increase-by-president.png

    https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/screen-shot-2014-07-29-at-11-05-52-am.png

    http://media.salon.com/2015/12/Salon38.5.png

    #24920
    mwdxer1
    Participant

    Yes, you are right. So we survived that. I guess we can survive again, but Donald Trump is not Bush.

    #24921
    LurkingGrendel
    Participant

    I wish I could relax. Pretty much everyday there’s an announcement from The Trump team that’s alarming. I do not mean that in a partisan way, at all. I’m speaking to experience.

    He’s starting to surround himself with many people whom are either unqualified or unsuited for the roles he’s nominating them for. For someone with no governmental experience of any kind, who by all reports had a scattershot at best understanding of how things actually work or what the actual responsibilities of the presidency are, it’s really (really) disconcerting.

    You know what? I have never been afraid of a Republican presidency before. Never. Nor did I dread/fear the election of any Republican candidate before. I may not have voted for them, but I would have been ok with that outcome. The thought of President McCain or President Romney did not keep me up at night the way President elect Trump has been.

    I’ve been in disagreement with policies, or at odds with decisions, but never worried about my actual physical safety before. I even found kind words and thoughts to say, and did say them aloud to others as well as here on this forum, about President George W Bush. I thought he was often making idiotic statements and decisions, but he was fundamentally a good man who wanted what he felt was the best for all Americans.

    I can’t say that about our soon to be commander in chief.

    For Christ’s sake, he’s still tweeting at people he thinks have wronged him in some fashion. This is the soon to be POTUS.

    This is a new experience. I’m not enjoying it so far.

    #24927
    Langston
    Participant

    Remove the T and the U from POTUS and you have it.

    #24930
    missing_kskd
    Participant

    >I have never been afraid of a Republican presidency before. Never.

    I had fear during Bush. War, etc… and my life skill sets could have seen me called back into that mess.

    Didn’t happen, but you bet I worried about it.

    Interestingly, I’ve bumped into a new term that seems to frame up Trump worries nicely:

    “Wrong outside normal parameters.”

    Indeed. Trump is a carnival barker, who got elected. I don’t see the sophistication needed to do well. President Carter says he’s malleable. OK. That could temper the harm some, but it could also result in a resonance, and very grave harm too.

    I would add potential for serious good, but this is the GOP we are talking about here.

    Trump, so far, is picking clowns, asses, dullards, and some vile people as his core team / cabinet.

    Combine that, and yes! “Wrong outside normal parameters.”

    That seems to resonate with “not afraid of a Republican, until now.”

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